The All-Star break is over, and we are almost three-quarters of the way through the 2022-23 season.
Before the NBA resumes play on Thursday night, it is time to answer some big questions.
Who is going to be taking home hardware during awards season? And how will the playoff picture look by season's end?
Let's run through some updated predictions. (If you missed my preseason predictions back in October, you can find them right here.)
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NBA bold second-half predictions
MVP: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
I had Giannis Antetokounmpo as my preseason pick, and he will likely finish in the top three. But as of now, this is Jokic's award to lose. His Nuggets are running away with the top seed in the West, and he's playing arguably better than he did in his first two MVP runs.
Jokic leads pretty much every advanced statistic — EPM, RAPTOR, DARKO and LEBRON, to name a few. His basic box score statistics are staggering, too. He's shooting 63.2 percent from the field, 39.1 percent from 3-point range and 82.2 percent from the line. Those are unheard of numbers. Jokic could become the first member of the 60/40/80 club.
Oh, and he's also averaging a triple-double with 24.7 points, 11.5 rebounds and 10.1 assists.
Jokic was the runaway leader in ESPN's most recent straw poll of media voters, receiving 77 of 100 first-place votes. If nothing big changes from now until the end of the year, then he will be winning his third straight MVP award.
Rookie of the Year: Paolo Banchero, Magic
Banchero was my preseason pick — and one of the few predictions that I seem to have gotten right. His 19.9 points per game lead all rookies, his 6.6 rebounds rank fourth and his 3.6 assists rank third.
Banchero's shooting percentages aren't all that great. A recent slump from beyond the arc has him down to just 28.1 percent from deep. But he's tasked with creating so much offense for the Magic that it's understandable why his efficiency isn't great.
He's able to create his own shot and set others up at a very high level. That's enough for him to take home the trophy.
Defensive Player of the Year: Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
Jackson's rim protection numbers are out-of-this-world good this season. Per Crafted NBA, opponents are shooting 14.8 percent worse at the rim against him, ranking in the 99th percentile of centers.
If blocked shots are more your thing, Jackson has you covered there, too. His 3.3 blocks per game are more than 20 percent higher than his next-closest competitor, Nic Claxton. He's defended everything from guards to false Reddit accusations this season.
The two areas where Jackson may struggle in this race are playing time (he's already missed 17 games) and foul trouble. But when he's been on the court, he's been a tour de force, anchoring the Grizzlies' No. 3 defense in the league.
Sixth Man of the Year: Malcolm Brogdon, Celtics
Brogdon has gone from starting every game over his previous four seasons to starting zero for the Celtics. He's been invaluable in that role and preserved his health by keeping his minutes down.
Brogdon has solid season averages of 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. He's hitting his 3-pointers at a remarkable 45.5 percent clip. And he's playing solid team defense.
He has been exactly what the Celtics needed — a guard who can give them the playmaking element that they were missing during last year's Finals run. The Celtics wouldn't be in first place in the East without Brogdon's contributions.
Coach of the Year: Joe Mazzulla, Celtics
Mazzulla came into a challenging situation with very little time to prepare after Ime Udoka's unexpected departure. He's filled in flawlessly, keeping the Celtics atop the league.
Mazzulla's quirky leadership style has kept the Celtics on their toes during the grueling regular-season slog. Whether it's doing a somersault in front of Marcus Smart or remaining totally silent during some timeouts, Mazzulla knows how to connect with his team.
Eastern Conference playoff teams
- Boston Celtics
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Miami Heat
- New York Knicks
- Brooklyn Nets*
- Toronto Raptors*
- Atlanta Hawks*
- Washington Wizards*
* Play-In Tournament
After Antetokounmpo's minor wrist injury, the Celtics should be able to hold onto the top spot in the East for the rest of the year.
The Cavs are finishing with a fairly easy strength of schedule, while the Sixers have the toughest in the league. Expect those teams to flip-flop in the standings.
The Heat should get a boost by adding Kevin Love through the buyout market. Josh Hart has been a nice addition for the Knicks. The Raptors have looked a lot better since acquiring Jakob Poeltl. Those teams make up their own tier in the middle of the East.
The Nets are obviously going to sink after trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but they've built a big lead over the bottom half of the East. They should stay in the postseason mix.
As for the last few spots in the Play-In Tournament, the bottom teams in the East don't inspire much confidence. The Bulls are in a tailspin and didn't do anything at the trade deadline. The Pacers have been sinking after a hot start to the season. The Hawks and Wizards get in by default.
Western Conference playoff teams
- Denver Nuggets
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Los Angeles Clippers
- Sacramento Kings
- Phoenix Suns
- Dallas Mavericks
- Golden State Warriors*
- New Orleans Pelicans*
- Oklahoma City Thunder*
- Los Angeles Lakers*
* Play-In Tournament
The Nuggets are running away with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, holding onto a five-game lead over the second-place Grizzlies. Nobody out West is catching them.
Similarly, the Grizzlies have a three- and four-game lead over the Kings and Clippers, respectively. They should be locked into the two seed.
The fourth through twelfth spots in the West are much more wide open. One bad week could see a team falling from that four seed all the way out of the Play-In Tournament.
The Mavs and the Suns are the obvious candidates to rise after major deadline deals. The Clippers have won 10 of their past 14 games, and Kawhi Leonard has started to look like his old self. They've added a lot of nice pieces to their team in Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland and Mason Plumlee.
And the Kings have kept chugging away, building up a nice lead in the standings. Those four teams should make up the next tier of teams.
The Warriors and Pelicans haven't been able to avoid the injury bug. Stephen Curry is expected to be evaluated after the All-Star break, and Zion Williamson experienced a setback with his hamstring injury. Both of those teams will be hovering in Play-In Tournament territory.
The Thunder traded a useful role player in Mike Muscala to the Celtics, but Shai Glilgeous-Alexander's superb play should keep them rolling. Expect them to move up from their current No. 10 slot.
The Lakers changed over most of their roster. D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Davon Reed, Mo Bamba and Rui Hachimura are solid fits alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
They'll have to jump three teams just to make the bottom of the Play-In Tournament. Time is not on their side, so this is about as high as they can reasonably be expected to rise.
Eastern Conference champion: Celtics
The Celtics were the best team in the East last season, and they've gotten even better this year. Jayson Tatum is playing at a potential MVP level, Jaylen Brown has taken another leap into All-Star status and they've upgraded their bench with Brogdon and Muscala.
They're a terror on both sides of the ball, ranking third in offense and fourth in defense, per NBA Stats. They are the only team to rank in the top five in both categories.
The Sixers and Cavs are the other two teams in the top 10 of both categories. The Celtics have done well against the Sixers this season, winning the first two battles. The Cavs escaped with two overtime wins against the Celtics. If those two teams meet in the playoffs, then the series will be a bloodbath.
The Bucks are always a looming threat, but their offense hasn't quite been up to par with Khris Middleton gone for much of the year. They've split the season series with the Celtics so far. The addition of Jae Crowder could give the Bucks a push, but it's hard to pick against the reigning Eastern Conference champs.
Western Conference champion: Clippers
The West is way more wide open than the East. The Suns, Nuggets and Clippers lead the contender pack for me, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Warriors or Grizzlies make it out in the end.
The Nuggets have been a dominant team, but they do have weaknesses that could be exploited in the playoffs. They don't have great defensive versatility with Jokic at center, and that could hurt them in certain matchups.
The Suns have obviously added a ton of talent, but they have succeeded with their precision on both ends of the floor. How will shaking up so much of the roster affect that strength? And the Clippers have been one of the hardest teams to evaluate because they haven't rolled out their whole team for most of the season.
Ultimately, I'm sticking with my preseason Clippers pick. It hasn't been a great regular season for them, but they've shored up a bunch of their weaknesses at the trade deadline. Hyland and Gordon give them more playmaking and shooting, and Plumlee gives them much-needed size when Ivica Zubac needs a rest.
They also have the capability to play different styles on both ends of the floor. That flexibility will be much more important in the later rounds.
NBA champion: Celtics
The Celtics have been the best team in basketball for a while now. They should have home-court advantage in any Finals matchup aside from possibly the Nuggets, and they have the experience of getting to the Finals last year.
Tatum has shown that he's a star among stars, scoring 55 points and taking home the All-Star Game MVP award this season. He also leads the league in points scored.
This is way more than a one-man team, though. The Celtics can easily go eight players deep, and they have already shown that they can reach another level in the playoffs.
As of now, they're the presumptive favorite.
