Luka Doncic has become an All-NBA player so early in his career that it can be easy to forget the Mavericks star will only turn 24 years old next month. It is very rare to see a young player throw his name into the MVP conversation and deal with championship expectations so quickly.
There is at least one guy who can relate to Doncic's experience: LeBron James, of course. He entered the league straight out of high school and by Year 4 of his career, he was leading the Cavaliers to 50 wins and earning plenty of MVP votes.
And then there was... "The Decision."
James ended his initial run in Cleveland with a disappointing loss to Boston in the 2010 NBA Playoffs. He uttered the infamous "take my talents to South Beach" line, went on to win his first two rings as a member of the Heat and left the Cavs in the Eastern Conference basement before returning to the team in 2014.
Doncic has a bright future ahead of him — and so do the Mavs as long as he is wearing their jersey. If Doncic and Dallas continually come up short like James and Cleveland did in the mid-to-late 2000s, though, they could go down a similarly dark path.
How can they avoid that fate? Here are a few lessons that they should take away from James' early years.
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No. 1 lesson: Don't assume you'll get back
The Mavericks took a major step forward last season, clearing the 50-win mark and punching their ticket to the Western Conference Finals. Doncic was spectacular in 15 playoff games, averaging 31.7 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists.
In 2005-06 and 2006-07, the Cavaliers went 50-32, finishing in the top three of the East standings in each season. James pushed Cleveland all the way to the NBA Finals in 2007, but the Cavs didn't have enough pieces to match up with a strong Spurs squad.
That seemed to be just the start of James' unstoppable dominance. And while Cleveland did clear 60 wins in 2008-09 and 2009-10, it failed to reach the NBA Finals again. As James and the Cavaliers learned, there are always other challengers in the way.
Doncic and the Mavericks ran into the Clippers in back-to-back postseasons before being eliminated by the champion Warriors in 2022. Once again, grinding through the Western Conference gauntlet will be a difficult task.
Looking beyond 2022-23, teams like the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Pelicans and Warriors should be well-positioned to contend. That means the Mavericks can't afford to remain stagnant (more on that below).
No. 2 lesson: You can't do it alone
Doncic can control the offensive flow of a game like the conductor of an orchestra. He points out the defender he wants, gets to his preferred spot on the floor and either scores or dishes a perfectly timed pass to an open teammate.
As The Ringer's Michael Pina recently noted, Doncic is "creating out of pick-and-rolls, isolation plays and dribble handoffs more efficiently and at a higher volume than ever before." It almost seems silly for Doncic to give the ball to someone else when the numbers are telling him to do it all.
But a heliocentric offense can only carry a team so far. Only two of the top 20 highest-usage seasons in NBA history have ended with trips to the Conference Finals (James Harden in 2017-18 and Doncic in 2021-22). None of the players below made it to the NBA Finals in those seasons.
| Rank | Player | Usage % | Season | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Russell Westbrook | 41.65 | 2016-17 | Lost in first round |
| 2. | James Harden | 40.47 | 2018-19 | Lost in conference semifinals |
| 3. | Kobe Bryant | 38.74 | 2005-06 | Lost in first round |
| 4. | Luka Doncic | 38.63 | 2022-23 | ? |
| 5. | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 38.60 | 2022-23 | ? |
| 6. | Russell Westbrook | 38.37 | 2014-15 | Missed playoffs |
| 7. | Michael Jordan | 38.29 | 1986-87 | Lost in first round |
| 8. | Joel Embiid | 38.08 | 2022-23 | ? |
| 9. | Allen Iverson | 37.78 | 2001-02 | Lost in first round |
| 10. | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 37.54 | 2019-20 | Lost in conference semifinals |
| 11. | Luka Doncic | 37.39 | 2021-22 | Lost in conference finals |
| 12. | Joel Embiid | 37.18 | 2021-22 | Lost in conference semifinals |
| 13. | Luka Doncic | 36.77 | 2019-20 | Lost in first round |
| 14. | DeMarcus Cousins | 36.50 | 2016-17 | Missed playoffs |
| 15. | James Harden | 36.26 | 2019-20 | Lost in conference semifinals |
| 16. | Dwyane Wade | 36.22 | 2008-09 | Lost in first round |
| 17. | Jermaine O'Neal | 36.22 | 2004-05 | Lost in conference semifinals |
| 18. | James Harden | 36.07 | 2017-18 | Lost in conference finals |
| 19. | Michael Jordan | 35.99 | 2001-02 | Missed playoffs |
| 20. | Luka Doncic | 35.96 | 2020-21 | Lost in first round |
Dallas is going to operate through Doncic, and he is going to post incredible numbers. Cleveland did the same thing with James.
However, Doncic and head coach Jason Kidd must figure out a way to take some of the weight off his shoulders. At a certain point, the burden becomes too heavy, even for the greatest players of all time. James needed Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Anthony Davis and others to accomplish his goals.
And that takes us to...
No. 3 lesson: Make real roster upgrades
During his first stint in Cleveland, James never had a teammate average 20 or more points per game. He was relying on Larry Hughes, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Mo Williams to offer support.
After falling to the Magic in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavaliers acquired Shaquille O'Neal and Antawn Jamison. They were hoping that O'Neal and Jamison could help James capture that elusive ring.
The experiment didn't work. O'Neal averaged 12.0 points and 6.7 rebounds in 23.4 minutes per game, struggling to stay on the court because of health and conditioning problems. Jamison was a decent role player, but he was past his prime.
Doncic had Kristaps Porzingis before he was traded last year, but he wasn't a reliable secondary option because of his inconsistent play and health issues. Then the Mavericks watched Jalen Brunson leave in free agency.
To put it simply, Dallas' front office must do a better job of building around Doncic. The Mavs can't chase Shaq-like trades or signings that grab attention but ultimately don't make a difference.
Not only will substantial moves propel the Mavericks to more wins, but they will also show Doncic that the organization is serious about pursuing titles. If Dallas leaves Doncic on an island, well, just ask Cleveland about that.
