One year ago, the Lakers and Nuggets met in the Western Conference Finals. That series ended in a four-game sweep for Denver.
While not quite as bad as it sounds, as three of those contests were decided by six points or less, Los Angeles will be aiming for a better result this time around.
The teams are set to meet again in the first round as the No. 2 and No. 7 seeds after the Lakers' Play-In victory over the Pelicans. Will anything be different for LA?
If the season series is any indicator, that seems unlikely. The Lakers have lost eight straight to the Nuggets dating back to last season, including all three games this season by a combined 30 points.
Here's why Denver has maintained such a large advantage, and if Los Angeles can do anything to change it.
MORE: Everything you need to know about Lakers vs. Nuggets
Lakers vs. Nuggets keys
How do the Lakers slow down Nikola Jokic?
The Lakers thought that they might have found something late in Game 1 of last year's series by having Rui Hachimura on Jokic, allowing Anthony Davis to play more of a roamer role.
That didn't work out all that well overall. Jokic averaged 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 11.8 assists for the series on 50.6% from the field and 47.1% from 3.
Jokic continued his dominance this season, averaging an even better 29.3 points in his three games against the Lakers. He's simply too big and too skilled for anyone to guard one-on-one, including All-Defensive candidate Anthony Davis.
The Lakers did have some flashes of success during last year's playoffs when LeBron James took that matchup. King James was very good at anticipating where Jokic's passes were going, managing to create some deflections. He was also strong enough to at least hold the fort until help could arrive.
Jokic shot just 4-of-12 against LeBron in that series, also turning it over five times. But asking a 39-year-old LeBron to take on that responsibility is unreasonable. In a close game, that might be a matchup that the Lakers try for the last few minutes. Anything more than that probably isn't happening.
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How do the Lakers slow down Jamal Murray?
As good as Jokic was against the Lakers last year, Murray matched him stride for stride. The talented guard averaged a team-high 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists on a sizzling 52.7% from the field and 40.5% from 3. The Lakers tried a bunch of different options against him, and he torched all of them.
The Lakers did sign Gabe Vincent with the hope that he might be able to do something against Murray in the playoffs. The gritty defensive guard helped limit Murray to a more reasonable 21.4 points in the Finals as a member of the Heat.
But Vincent hasn't quite been able to find a key role with the Lakers. Injuries have derailed his season, and he's shot a putrid 10.7% from 3 this year. If he does regain his shooting stroke, he could become an X factor in this series.
MORE: Lakers advance to NBA Playoffs with thrilling win vs. Pelicans
Can D'Angelo Russell stay on the floor?
Russell has been one of the main drivers of the Lakers' second half success. Once thought of as nothing more than salary filler in a future trade, he's outperformed his deal thanks to his outstanding 41.5% from 3. The Lakers badly need his offense because their best chance to hang with the Nuggets is to try and outscore them.
That may be a problem. The Nuggets don't really have any weak spots in their starting five where the Lakers could hide Russell on defense. He was repeatedly targeted, as Bruce Brown told reporters in last year's series.
“We took D-Lo out the game,” Brown told the Denver Post's Mike Singer. “That was our goal, to get him involved in everything.”
Russell was such a sieve defensively that he lost his starting spot by Game Four and averaged only 23.5 minutes in the series.
The Nuggets will likely copy their game plan from last year and force Darvin Ham to pull Russell at some point in this series.
Lakers vs. Nuggets 2024 first round series prediction
The Lakers really haven't solved any of the problems listed above. They still can't slow down Jokic, their size advantage is negated against the equally-big Nuggets, and their offense-first players are at risk to get exposed by Denver's pristine ball movement.
This is a really bad matchup for Los Angeles, which is unfortunate because they have played much better as of late. They went 22-10 to finish their season, getting a spark after re-inserting Hachimura in the starting lineup.
Hachimura, along with the emergence of Russell, will give the Lakers a chance at keeping pace with Denver. That might allow them to steal a game or two. But they're going against the best player in the league. The Nuggets should take this easily.
Prediction: Nuggets in five.
