Just like everyone predicted, the NBA Finals matchup is Heat vs. Nuggets.
The team that's never before reached the Finals against the upstart 8-seed that nearly became the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead.
Nikola Jokic has averaged a highly efficient triple-double through the first three rounds of the playoffs, and 'Playoff Jimmy' Butler has been the best playoff performer in the East.
Which star will earn the Larry O'Brien Trophy? Let's take an early look at the series' biggest factors.
MORE: Which NBA teams have never made the Finals?
Heat vs. Nuggets head-to-head record & season series
Based on their two meetings during the regular season, this series should be competitive. In the first matchup in Miami, all of the main players from both teams were available, and the Nuggets won, 124-119.
Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson were missing for the rematch in Denver. The Nuggets took that one down, too, winning by a final score of 112-108.
Looking beyond just this past season, the Nuggets have dominated. They have won six straight and nine of the last 10 meetings overall, their only loss coming in a regular season game in the Orlando bubble back in August 2020.
Will Nikola Jokic or Jimmy Butler be the best player in the series?
Jokic killed the Heat during the regular season, averaging a 23-point triple-double. As a small team, the Heat are not well-equipped to guard him. The 6-9, 250-pound Bam Adebayo got most of the minutes trying to slow him down — Jokic has a two-inch and almost 30-pound advantage in that matchup.
Adebayo is a fantastic defensive player, but per the league's tracking data, Jokic shot 60 percent against him in the regular season. Last year was even worse for Adebayo — Jokic hit 67 percent of his shots.
Looking ahead a little, Jokic killed the Heat this year. Averaged 23/12/10 on 69/67/100 shooting splits.
— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) May 22, 2023
Bam is obviously a great defensive player, but he struggled one-on-one in that matchup. pic.twitter.com/vebqbRCMRa
The Heat did experiment with switching smaller players onto Jokic, but he mauled players like Butler and Caleb Martin, easily backing them down.
Kevin Love was not yet on the Heat roster when they last faced the Nuggets. He could be an option to put some size on Jokic, but Love has barely guarded Jokic over the past few seasons. The Heat have also added backup big man Cody Zeller, who should be able to bang with Jokic a bit.
While the Heat don't have any great options on Jokic, the Nuggets have some solid ones on Butler. Gordon got the primary assignment on him in the first game, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope got it in the second game.
Gordon has the strength to bang with Butler in the post along with the speed to stay in front of him on the perimeter. Caldwell-Pope is a good defensive player with the length to contest Butler's fadeaways. Bruce Brown also has the strength needed to make life tougher on Butler.
Despite having good size to put on Butler, the Nuggets weren't able to stop him much in the regular season. He averaged 20.5 points, 8.5 assists and 8.0 rebounds per game against them. It will have to be a team effort from the Nuggets.
Heat X-factor: Kyle Lowry
Lowry has transitioned well in a bench role for the Heat, bringing timely 3-point shooting and energy plays throughout the playoffs.
Lowry's screening will be very important. He was guarded primarily by Murray during the regular season, and the Heat will try to use Lowry as a screener to get Butler that matchup. Lowry has been very successful in that role in past series, getting the smaller Derrick White matched up on Butler.
Lowry has also made big plays by drawing charges and generally being a pest. The Heat will need to be extremely active defensively in order to slow the Nuggets down, and Lowry has the capacity to junk up their offense.
Nuggets X-factor: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
The Heat have tried sprinkling in their 2-3 zone throughout the playoffs. One great way to beat that zone is to shoot over the top of it. That's where Caldwell-Pope can make a difference. He should have plenty of open looks.
Caldwell-Pope has capitalized on that role throughout the regular season, hitting a career-high 42.3 percent of his 3-pointers and a scorching 6-of-7 against the Heat.
Heat vs. Nuggets prediction
The Heat have shown that it's a mistake to underestimate them. This is not the 44-win regular season team that barely squeaked into the playoffs.
However, this is not a good matchup for them. The Nuggets have sizable advantages both with talent and offensive firepower. The Heat don't have great personnel to put on Jokic, who shot 12-of-14 in his last appearance against them.
The Heat's zone may also prove ineffective. The Nuggets have good outside shooting, and their specialty is the type of passing and movement that zones can struggle to contain.
Butler showed back in 2020 that he is capable of winning two Finals games just by himself, but I don't see the Heat beating this Nuggets team four times.
My pick: Nuggets in six
