EuroBasket 2022 expert picks, predictions and best bets: Will Luka Doncic or Giannis Antetokounmpo win gold?

Scott Rafferty

Gilbert McGregor

Jordan Greer

Kyle Irving

EuroBasket 2022 expert picks, predictions and best bets: Will Luka Doncic or Giannis Antetokounmpo win gold? image

Basketball fans will have a lot to look forward to over the next couple of weeks.

Starting on Sept. 1, 24 countries will battle for an opportunity to be crowned champions of EuroBasket 2022. A number of NBA stars will be in uniform, including Giannis Antetokounmpo for Greece, Luka Doncic for Slovenia, Nikola Jokic for Serbia and Rudy Gobert for France.

Will one of them lead their country to a gold medal? Who will lead the tournament in scoring? Are one of Doncic, Antetokounmpo, Jokic or Gobert a lock to be named MVP?

Ahead of the tournament, members of The Sporting News staff give their picks and predictions.

MORE: Giannis, Jokic, Doncic among stars to watch at EuroBasket

Watch every EuroBasket 2022 game live and on demand with ESPN+. Sign up now to catch all of the action with some of the NBA's biggest stars, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and more. Stream all games from both the group stage and knockout round from Sept. 1 through the championship on Sept. 18.

EuroBasket 2022 expert picks, predictions and best bets

Which player will lead the tournament in scoring?

Scott Rafferty (@crabdribbles): Luka Doncic is going to be a popular pick, but Giannis Antetokounmpo gets my vote. He's been pretty dang ridiculous in the leadup to EuroBasket, averaging around 30 points per game in Greece's friendlies and World Cup Qualifiers. Teams are going to throw everything at him, but there's only so much you can do against stuff like this:

Kyle Irving (@KyleIrv_): According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Doncic (+220) is the favorite to lead EuroBasket in scoring and although I like Scott's Antetokounmpo pick, I'm riding with Luka.

Doncic was unstoppable during his last international tournament, leading the entire Tokyo Olympics in scoring with 143 total points while averaging 23.8 points per game. He has looked sharp and in shape during the World Cup Qualifiers and with how much he's going to dominate the ball for Slovenia, I don't see anyone outscoring him.

Jordan Greer (@jordangreer42): Antetokounmpo, Doncic and Jokic are all great options here. Each star will be expected to carry his team throughout the competition, so usage rates and field goal attempts should be incredibly high. I'm going to roll with Doncic, who will be motivated to lead Slovenia to another EuroBasket title.

Gilbert McGregor (@GMcGregor21): I was very tempted to go with Doncic but I'm going to roll with the back-to-back MVP and give Nikola Jokic my vote.

We often talk about Jokic's elite passing (and rightly so!) but we shouldn't let that overshadow his elite scoring ability — it wasn't too long ago that he was hitting Antetokounpmo with the patented "Sombor Shuffle" to drain a tough 3. If he can do that on one of the two best defenders that will be in the tournament, it might be tough sledding for every other defense.

Which team is the biggest sleeper?

Rafferty: Probably Lithuania. While they're not led by a superstar like Slovenia, Greece and Serbia are, they have both Domantas Sabonis and Jonas Valanciunas, giving them a mighty tough frontline with lots of experience that nobody is going to want a piece of. If things break right for them, I could see Lithuania making a run.

Irving: I like Lithuania as well but for the sake of getting another country in the mix, I like Germany (+1800) as a long-shot sleeper pick. Germany has looked great in the FIBA World Cup Qualifiers, most recently routing a Slovenia team that is one of the favorites to win EuroBasket. With NBA talents like Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner, Germany could make a surprising run.

Greer: This seems odd to say considering the team's history of success in international play, but how about Spain? It only has the sixth-best odds (+1400) to win the tournament, but this squad shouldn't be overlooked. It will bring talented players like Rudy Fernandez, Usman Garuba, Juancho Hernangomez and Willy Hernangomez to the court.

McGregor: I, too, think Spain is a team that shouldn't be slept on. Spain's trio of current NBA players doesn't exactly have the caché as other nations but the Spanish National Basketball Team program has long been a force and their chemistry and coaching can elevate them into a podium finish.

Which team will suffer a shocking early exit?

Rafferty: There are a number of teams with a legitimate shot at winning gold, so at least one is going to suffer an earlier-than-expected exit. I could see that team being Greece, simply because they could face Slovenia, France or Lithuania in the quarter-finals. Either one of those matchups would be worthy of a final.

Irving: I'm going to go with Spain because they will likely have to face off against a tough first-round opponent that comes out of a loaded Group B. Since Spain is in Group A, it has a high chance of seeing one of Slovenia, France, Germany or Lithuania in the first round, depending on how the standings shake out for Group B.

Greer: I agree with Scott. It would be unwise to doubt Antetokounmpo, but a heavy burden will be placed on his shoulders. Can he lift Greece to its first EuroBasket title since 2005? Or will the deeper rosters of the other contenders prove to be too much?

McGregor: Shocking, you say? I think an early exit for Slovenia is in the cards this time around, even given the fact that they're the defending champs and have one of the best players in the tournament. I don't doubt Doncic one bit but I'm envisioning a game in which his support doesn't show up in a manner that's needed, resulting in a loss.

Which team will win gold?

Rafferty: They're in a brutal group, but I like Slovenia's odds overall. They took home gold in the last EuroBasket and they're led by Luka Doncic, one of the best basketball players in the world who absolutely crushes international competition. He also lives for the big moments. It's hard to bet against Luka.

Irving: I'm going with France. Like Scott said of Slovenia, Group B is going to be a gauntlet, but I like France's chances to emerge as the most battle-tested team of the bunch. This core France roster has competed together at several international tournaments at this point and led by players like Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier, I think they take home the Gold.

Greer: It may not have the star power of Greece, Serbia or Slovenia, but I'm picking France to win the tournament. France should bring plenty of confidence to EuroBasket after defeating the United States in group play at the Tokyo Olympics and nearly taking down the Americans in the gold medal game.

McGregor: Popular pick here it seems, but I'm going to roll with France as well. NBA Gobert is a force but International Gobert is different beast. With a host of talented players and a system that works well, I see France building off the momentum of 2021 to win here in 2022 and cause for even more excitement as it prepares to host the 2024 Olympic Games.

Which player will be named MVP?

Rafferty: Luka Doncic. He's going to post monster numbers and I have Slovenia winning it all.

Irving: If France is going to win it all as I predicted, then it will have to be Rudy Gobert or Evan Fournier who takes home tournament MVP. I'll go with Fournier as a surprise choice since he'll almost certainly be the team's leading scorer.

Greer: The past six EuroBasket MVP award winners have come from the team that won the championship, so I'll predict that Gobert adds his name to an impressive list.

McGregor: I already said he's a different beast in international play, so it's only right I go with Gobert as my MVP pick. Wolves fans will be excited about what they see from their new big man.

Scott Rafferty

Scott Rafferty Photo

 

Scott Rafferty is an experienced NBA journalist who first started writing for The Sporting News in 2017. There are few things he appreciates more than a Nikola Jokic no-look pass, Klay Thompson heat check or Giannis Antetokounmpo eurostep. He's a member of the NBA Global team.

Gilbert McGregor

Gilbert McGregor Photo

Gilbert McGregor first joined The Sporting News in 2018 as a content producer for Global editions of NBA.com. Before covering the game, McGregor played basketball collegiately at Wake Forest, graduating with a Communication degree in 2016. McGregor began covering the NBA during the 2017-18 season and has been on hand for a number of league events.

Jordan Greer

Jordan Greer Photo

Jordan Greer has been with The Sporting News since 2015. He previously worked for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He is a graduate of Westminster College and Syracuse University.

Kyle Irving

Kyle Irving Photo

You read that wrong – not Kyrie Irving. From Boston, graduated from the University of New Hampshire. Sixth season as a content producer for NBA.com's Global editions. Covering the NBA Draft has become his annual "dream come true" moment on the job. Irving has a soft spot for pass-first point guards, with Rajon Rondo and Steve Nash being two of his favorite players of all time.