The NBA's announcement that Draymond Green is suspended for Thursday's Game 3 against the Kings causes major concern for the Warriors.
With the Warriors already down 2-0, here's a reminder you'll surely see, read or hear in the coming days: no team in NBA history has ever won a series after trailing 3-0.
The good news for them is that they've been a much better team at home, where they will play the next two games. And even without Green they are still 5.5 point favorites at BetMGM, although that is down from an opening line of -7.5.
The bad news? Green has been incredibly valuable, going far beyond what's apparent in any basic stats.
Even more worrisome? It's not totally obvious how they will make up for his absence. Here's why.
How Draymond Green's suspension impact Warriors' offense
Green's offensive statistics are mediocre.
He's only averaging six points per game in this series, and his 36.4 percent from the field is ghastly. But he does bring a lot of value through his passing and screening. He's been averaging a team-high eight assists per game.
The Warriors obviously revolve around Steph Curry. Green is a great passer out of the post with their split cuts, and he also allows them to unleash their best attack with Curry— the high pick-and-roll. Teams try to bring two defenders to Curry, but Green is so good as a release valve that it makes that strategy difficult to maintain.
With Green out, Kevon Looney will get more opportunities in that role. But Looney is not nearly the passer and playmaker that Green is. The Kings should be able to load up way more on Curry, making life more difficult for him on pick-and-rolls.
So far this series, Curry — and at times, Andrew Wiggins — has proven to be Golden State's only reliable on-ball shot creator with neither Klay Thompson nor especially Jordan Poole able to generate much off the bounce. With Green now out and with it the easy looks created from his passing, that puts an even larger burden on Curry to create.
Warriors defense falls apart without Draymond Green
The defensive side of the ball is where the Warriors will really miss Green. He's still an elite defender — he finished fourth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and was the second-most impactful defender in the league in an average of all-in-one metrics.
The Warriors have defended 7.3 points per 100 possessions better with Green on the floor during the regular season, per Basketball-Reference. That number has climbed all the way up to 19.3 points per 100 possessions better during the two games in this series. As a frame of reference, that number is about double the difference between the best and the worst defense in the league.
The Warriors were looking like they may have figured something out towards the end of Game 2, playing a smallball lineup of Green at center and Gary Payton II at power forward. They had cut into the Kings' lead before Green was ejected for stepping on Sabonis. That forced them to insert Kevon Looney back into the game, who has struggled in this series. With Looney in and Green out, a four point deficit ballooned up to eight by the final buzzer.
Make no mistake, Looney is a good player for the Warriors. But this is simply not a good series for him.
He's had to play drop defense, sagging way into the paint on ballscreens. De'Aaron Fox has torched that coverage with his soft touch on his floaters and midrange shots. Fox is averaging 31 points and seven assists through two games and has been targeting Looney defensively. The Warriors need the ability to play different types of coverages, and Looney does not provide that to nearly the level of Green.
The backups behind Looney are also very weak. JaMychal Green will have to play more as an undersized center. He has not been productive this year. Worse still, the Kings have thrived in this series by going big with center Alex Len and sending multiple players to the offensive glass. They will continue pressing that advantage with Green out.
Warriors record without Draymond Green
History also tells us that the Warriors will struggle without Green. He missed nine games during the regular season. The team was a miserable 3-6 in those contests. Six of those games did come without Curry, and many also came when Kerr decided to rest multiple members of the starting lineup, so take that number with a grain of salt.
What is undoubtedly true is that the combination of Green and Curry have been vital throughout the Warriors dynasty. This is even more pronounced during this year's regular season. Per PBP Stats, that duo has outscored teams by 263 points in 1,438 minutes together this season. In the 498 minutes that Curry has played without Green on the floor, the Warriors have been outscored by six points.
Green's suspension also brings back memories of his kick to LeBron James in the 2016 Finals. Green was suspended for Game 5 of that series, which the Warriors lost.
The Warriors have been the no. 3 team in the league at home, sporting a 33-8 record. They will have to hope that the home crowd advantage is somehow enough to overcome the loss of Green, because his absence is not looking good on film or through a statistical lens.
