Damian Lillard has made a career out of being one of the most clutch players in the league. Every NBA fan knows what Dame Time means after watching his countless game-winners.
The clock may be ticking down on that stage of his career, though.
Quietly, Lillard is in the midst of one of his worst clutch seasons. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been incredible in crunch time, carrying the Bucks to an impressive 18-10 record in clutch games.
Milwaukee's best chance to win it all is to recognize that it's Giannis, not Lillard, who should get the ball late.
MORE: Klay Thompson, like Manu Ginobili before him, can thrive in his sixth man role
Damian Lillard has been mediocre in crunch time
The numbers surrounding Lillard's poor crunch-time performance may be surprising. He hit some huge shots early in Milwaukee's season, adding to his clutch narrative.
There were Dame's two shots to seal a come-from-behind victory against the Knicks in early November. He helped win another game against the Kings in January by hitting a buzzer-beating 3 in overtime.
THIS IS WHAT DAME DOES. ⌚️ pic.twitter.com/zwNfpQxOG0
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) January 15, 2024
The shot will be one of the cherished highlights of this Bucks season, but it's been the exception rather than the norm. He's just 1-of-6 on shots inside 30 seconds left and the score within three points. Some of those misses have been ugly.
Lillard has the highest usage on the Bucks in clutch situations, defined by the NBA as games where the score is within five points in the last five minutes. The ball is going through him a third of the time, but he's hitting only 41.4 percent of his field goals and an awful 29.0 percent of his 3s. He's been their fourth-best option down the stretch.
| Player | Usage | FG% | 3-point % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 33.5% | 41.4% | 29.0% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 27.1% | 55.8% | 50.0% |
| Khris Middleton | 16.7% | 53.8% | 40.0% |
| Brook Lopez | 13.1% | 45.5% | 42.9% |
Despite those poor numbers, most of the crunch time offense continues to run through Lillard first and foremost.
“I know what this guy’s capable of doing,” Antetokounmpo told The Athletic's Eric Nehm after Lillard's game-winner against the Kings. “And that’s why down the stretch we were all looking for him. Every handoff, every pick-and-roll was Dame initiating it because that’s what he does. Down the stretch. He excels. He thrives down the stretch and he showed it tonight, man."
That unwavering faith in Lillard ignores the fact that he bricked two 3-pointers inside of the final minute of overtime in that game, forcing the Bucks to need that buzzer-beater for the win.
Antetokounmpo took just one shot during that extra period — a midrange grenade launched over good defense after he received the ball with only five seconds left on the shot clock. He has not gotten enough touches at the end of games.
MORE: Predictions for the final stretch of NBA's regular season
Giannis Antetokounmpo needs the ball over Damian Lillard in crunch time
Giannis has been the clear No. 2 in those late-game situations, and it hasn't made much sense. He will likely finish top four in MVP voting for the sixth consecutive year. He's easily the best player on the Bucks. He's unstoppable going downhill and a good passer who can hit Lillard with the floor spread.
So why is the ball not going through him more?
Antetokounmpo is still finding a way to make an impact late in games when he gets those chances. He has been by far the best crunch-time player in the league based on advanced metrics, carrying the Bucks to that good clutch record much more than Lillard.
Updated clutch player of the year tracker. Steph has climbed to #3, but Giannis remains on top by metric, despite getting no respect from the betting odds (he's currently 70-1). pic.twitter.com/8xt4aAFPXo
— Mike Beuoy (@inpredict) February 14, 2024
In the rare instances where Antetokounmpo has had the ball late, it has been more by luck than design.
In a late November game against the Blazers, it was Lillard again who was entrusted with the fate of the game. With the score tied at 102 and 24 seconds left, Lillard clanked a pull-up 3, then grabbed the rebound and had the ball stripped. After an airball by Bobby Portis, Antetokounmpo tipped it in for the win.
Antetokounmpo shouldn't have to rely on broken plays to get his offense. The Bucks have had success giving it to him at the elbow or spreading it out and letting him work at the end of games.
Antetokounmpo has also been the most efficient volume scorer as the pick-and-roller ball handler (at least 150 possessions) in the entire league this season. He's been significantly better than other elite guards rounding out the top of that leaderboard such as Tyrese Haliburton, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic.
Lillard, who ranks 19th on that list, has been solid in that play type as well. But the Bucks have used Dame almost three times more frequently than Giannis in that role.
The Bucks have talent on their roster. They haven't looked like they've been on the same page all season. Making Antetokounmpo the clear focal point throughout the games, and particularly during crunch time, is a vital step towards solving that issue.
