With only a quarter of the regular season left, seven teams look like viable contenders for the NBA championship.
The Celtics are pulling away from the field in the East, while the Nuggets and Clippers look like the most dangerous teams in the West. The Bucks, Suns, Thunder and Timberwolves all have at least a puncher's chance of pulling off an upset, according to the odds at BetMGM.
This thing is far from a wrap, though. All seven of those teams have at least one serious question mark that could torpedo their chances.
Here are the issues that are keeping each of these contenders awake at night.
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One burning question for each NBA title contender
Celtics: Can Kristaps Porzingis stay healthy?
The Kristaps Porzingis trade was a master stroke for the Celtics. He's been their second-best player behind Jayson Tatum this year.
Porzingis' rim protection has been elite, helping the Celtics to the No. 2 defense in the league. He's been a good pick-and-pop shooter, hitting 37.5 percent of his 3s. And he's somehow developed into the best post-up player in the entire league.
The big question for Porzingis is, of course, his health. He's never played more than 72 games in the regular season, and he's averaged only 54 games over the past four years.
Can the Celtics survive without Porzingis? They just crushed the Warriors by 52 points with him missing the game due to a quad strain. They can probably win the East with the rest of their guys. If the Nuggets get through to the Finals, though, Porzingis will be the most important Celtic in the series. The best way to defend Nikola Jokic has been with double big lineups.
The Celtics will need both Porzingis and Al Horford to have their best shot at winning that presumptive Finals matchup.
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Nuggets: Who is going to pick up the Bruce Brown Jr. slack?
The Nuggets returned all of their most important players from last year's dominant championship run with one exception: Bruce Brown Jr. The hope was that one of their young players could pick up the slack. That hasn't happened yet.
The starting lineup is still rock-solid. Jamal Murray has had to do a little more with teams gearing up even more against Jokic and trying to force Murray to beat them. He has been tremendous in that role. Jokic has been Jokic, the best player in the league. But they need help.
Brown gave the team a huge spark off the bench. Reggie Jackson has unexpectedly had a career revival, and Christian Braun has built on last year's success. Still, the team needs one of Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther or Zeke Nnaji to step up and show that they can give the other main guys a breather.
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Clippers: Can you count on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George?
The Clippers are an old team that has gotten good health en route to a top-four record in the West. The health of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are obviously at the forefront for them, given their playoff failures in recent years. Leonard was the best player in the playoffs last season. The magic lasted for only two games before he missed the rest of the postseason.
The team is already struggling with injuries down the stretch. Russell Westbrook is out indefinitely with a broken hand. George is dealing with knee soreness. Leonard has played more regular season minutes already than he has since winning a championship with Toronto four years ago.
This has been the story with the Clippers ever since they traded for George and Leonard. It's on them to change the narrative this year.
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Bucks: Can Khris Middleton get back to his old self?
There has been plenty of talk about the Bucks' issues. Is their coaching strong enough under Doc Rivers? Will Damian Lillard return to a top 10 player in the playoffs? Can their perimeter defense hold? Do they have enough depth?
Beyond that, their season will be determined by Khris Middleton. He was their second-best player during their title run, and he hasn't been able to return to that same level. He's lost two or three steps defensively, but he's still been a good offensive player when he's been on the floor.
That health part has been a major component for Middleton over the past few years. He's dealt with back, knee, wrist and ankle injuries. The Bucks tried to keep him on a minutes limit for much of the year, but he's still been banged up.
This team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs if they can't get Middleton to play at least 30 minutes per game. They don't have the depth or firepower to replace him on the rest of the roster. That is looking like a very dicey proposition right now.
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Suns: Do they have enough depth?
Like the other teams on this list, health has been a major concern for the Suns. Their big three of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker have only played 455 minutes together all season.
Even if all three are available, the Suns are obviously a top-heavy team that has a ton of minimum-salary guys on their roster. Aside from sharpshooter Grayson Allen, who has been terrific in hitting 46.3 percent of his 3s this year, their depth is shaky.
Jusuf Nurkic is a below-average starting center. The Suns have almost nothing behind him at his position. The collection of wings that they acquired in the offseason hasn't worked out. That forced them to trade for Royce O'Neale, who has played well thus far, but he was the seventh man on a team outside of the playoffs before getting moved. Can you count on him?
How dependable are the rest of these role players going to be in the playoffs? The Suns have the weakest 4-8 guys in their rotation out of any of these contending teams.
Thunder: What happens with Josh Giddey?
Giddey has started every game of his NBA career with the Thunder. There are some signs that his time may be getting cut, though. He's averaging the fewest minutes in his career, and head coach Mark Daigneault has experimented with bringing him off the bench in the second half of games.
That change in role is due to offensive concerns. Giddey is an improved shooter but still connecting on only 32.6 percent of his 3s. He hurts the team's spacing, and the way he's being guarded now exacerbates those issues. Teams have begun putting their opposing center on him and sagging 15 feet off him when he has the ball.
This is a freaking problem. pic.twitter.com/iR9pnOfo92
— Nekias (Nuh-KY-us) Duncan (@NekiasNBA) March 4, 2024
Giddey has also had trouble getting to the line and finishing at the rim. He's way too reliant on his floater, which, while he does have decent touch on it, prevents him from drawing contact.
Giddey is still a very good player and elite passer, but he has to drill his open 3s to play big minutes. The Thunder did trade for Gordon Hayward as a potential Giddey replacement, but Hayward has shot the ball terribly and looked passive since joining up.
The rest of the Thunder's roster is solid. They have great depth. But if Giddey forces them to play 4-on-5, then they don't stand a chance against these other elite teams.
Timberwolves: Do they have enough offense?
Anthony Edwards has brought his game to another level yet again. Karl-Anthony Towns dropped 62 points (in a loss). Naz Reid can bring some instant offense off the bench. Aside from those three, the Wolves have a lot of defense-first players in their rotation.
While that approach has helped them become the best defense in the league, they are going to need more from Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels on offense. Gobert is going to have to catch and finish. McDaniels needs to shoot more 3s.
Minnesota ranks 18th in offensive rating this year. With how amazing offenses have gotten, can a defense-first team win anymore in the NBA?
The Timberwolves don't give themselves a lot of opportunities for easy points, either. They run the highest percentage of their plays in the halfcourt, where scoring tends to be a lot harder. They're a huge team but they don't hit the offensive glass particularly well, ranking 14th in that department.
That is a hard way to make a living. They need to score like a top-10 team in the playoffs to give themselves a chance.
