Shortly after an earthquake hit the East coast on Friday morning, another one hit the NBA Draft landscape. Bronny James announced via his Instagram page that he would be declaring for the 2024 draft while maintaining his college eligibility and also entering the transfer portal.
In no way does Bronny's draft declaration mean that he will actually be drafted. It is very possible (and probable) that he is simply testing out his options. By declaring, he could do workouts, get evaluations from NBA personnel on what he needs to work on for next year, and return to college.
If Bronny does decide to keep his name in the draft, then it becomes an intriguing question of where a team would take him. Here's what we can guess at this point while James weighs his options.
MORE: Bronny James' best landing spots for 2024, from the NBA to Ohio State
Bronny James has plummeted down 2024 NBA mock drafts
Bronny started the year as a legitimate first round draft prospect on most mock drafts, showing up in the back half of the first round.
That projection changed after he suffered a cardiac arrest incident during a workout over the summer which caused him to miss the first four months of his season. It was extremely impressive for Bronny to even return after that scary incident. But that lengthy delay and recovery explains in part why he averaged just 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.1 assists in 19.3 minutes per game.
Bronny was also stuck in a not-ideal role in which he was expected to mostly spot up and play a defensive stopper role. The shooting never came around for him — he hit just 36.6 percent of his field goals, 26.7 percent of his 3's, and 67.6 percent of his free throws.
Those are obviously not typical numbers associated with an NBA draft pick. Bronny wasn't even a good college player last year. His struggles as a freshman, along with the expectation that he probably would not enter the draft, had him falling completely out of the vast majority of mock drafts.
That doesn't mean that Bronny isn't still considered an intriguing prospect. He is already showing up on 2025 mock drafts. ESPN's Jonathan Givony has James mocked as the no. 39 pick in next year's draft.
MORE: Why Bronny James is a fringe NBA Draft pick in 2024
Will Bronny James get drafted?
Bronny's draft position will depend a lot on if teams believe that LeBron is a package deal with him, as he has previously indicated.
“My last year will be played with my son,” LeBron told The Athletic back in 2022. “Wherever Bronny is at, that’s where I’ll be. I would do whatever it takes to play with my son for one year. It’s not about the money at that point.”
LeBron has walked that idea back a little bit recently, telling reporters that "Bronny is his own man" when it comes to making decisions about his future.
The Lakers have the no. 55 pick in this draft. If LeBron is serious about going wherever Bronny goes, then picking him there would make a lot of sense.
How about if Bronny's last name was Smith instead of James? Basing his draft slot solely on his own merits rather than his ties to LeBron, he would probably be a late second round pick or much more likely go undrafted.
Bronny was the no. 17 RSCI prospect in his class before entering college, so it's not as if he is only riding on the coattails of LeBron. He showed good athleticism and shooting in high school. But his production and potential simply are not comparable to the other players in this draft right now.
There have been other NBA players who have had terrible college careers and gone on to be good pros — Russell Westbrook averaged 3.4 points per game in his first year at UCLA, for example. Westbrook stayed on another year before entering the draft and getting picked fourth overall, which is the route that Bronny should probably take.
Bronny's poor freshman year in no way precludes him from eventually making it to the NBA. He needs to show more though in order for that to happen. If he really wowed in workouts between now and the draft, then maybe there would be more credence to using a better pick on him. As it stands now, he would probably be a flier at the very end of the draft at best.
MORE: How Bronny and LeBron James could team up on the Lakers
Why Bronny James could go the undrafted free agent route
Bronny could very likely prefer going undrafted to being picked in the late second round, where teams will likely target him.
Many players who are good enough to be drafted in the late second round much prefer the undrafted route because it allows them to choose their destination. Austin Reaves is a recent Lakers example. Bronny could follow that same path.
LeBron badly wants to play with his son. Going undrafted would allow that to happen, while also preserving the team's no. 55 pick for a better prospect.
It takes an agency with a lot of pull to discourage teams at the end of the second round from selecting a player. Klutch Sports, who represents both father and son, certainly has that kind of cachet. And Klutch CEO Rich Paul hinted at such a scenario playing out in an interview with ESPN's Jeremy Woo.
"I don't value a young player getting into the lottery as much as I do getting him on the right team in the right developmental situation," Paul told Woo.
Bronny is going to need a good fit in order to succeed at the next level. His team has to invest in developing his on-ball reps in a way that USC did not. He clearly has a lot of work to do.
Controlling his destination and making sure that he ends up in a place with excellent player development is going to be essential for his long-term success. If Bronny does stay in the 2024 draft, then that might be the most likely outcome for him.
