Has the Cardinals' magic run out?
Since 2000, only the Dodgers and Yankees have won more games than St. Louis' 2,036. The Cardinals have won more World Series (two) during that span than had losing seasons (one). Only seven times have they missed the playoffs.
It's still early in the 2023 season — and there could still be some room for more magic — but it appears St. Louis is in trouble. The Cardinals sit at 11-24 entering play on May 8, the worst record in the National League and a better record than only the Athletics (8-27) and Royals (9-26) in the majors.
It is an unfamiliar position for the Cardinals. They rarely struggle out of the gate, and it is understandable why there might be some cause for concern among St. Louis fans.
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What does this start mean in historical context, and what has led to this slow start? Here's what you need to know.
Cardinals slow start, by the numbers
Cardinals' worst start to the season
Through 35 games, the Cardinals have an 11-24 record, or a .314 winning percentage. It has been a while, to say the least, since the last time St. Louis got off to such a cold start.
Back in 1973 — 50 years ago — the Cardinals got off to an identical 11-24 record. That squad wound up bouncing back to an even 81-81 record, short of reaching the playoffs, but finishing second in the NL East, a game behind the 82-79 Mets.
To find the next time the Cardinals got off to that slow of a start, you have to really turn back time. Since 1901, according to Stathead, only twice has St. Louis been this ice cold to begin the season: 1903 and 1907.
| Season | Start | Finish | Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1903 | 9-26 (.257) | 43-94-2 (.314) | No |
| 1907 | 10-25 (.286) | 52-101-2 (.340) | No |
| 1973 | 11-24 (.314) | 81-81 (.500) | No |
| 2023 | 11-24 (.314) | TBD | TBD |
Both the previous two seasons, the Cardinals finished below a .350 winning percentage, though they did improve slightly from the sub-.300 winning percentage to begin the year.
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Can the Cardinals make the playoffs after slow start?
Anything can still happen. Thirty-five games is hardly enough to determine what will happen over the remaining 127, particularly for a franchise that just won 17 straight games in September 2021 to storm past the playoff field and claim a wild card.
But the history of teams overcoming this type of start is limited. Limited to exactly two, since 1901. Here's who accomplished that turnaround, per Stathead:
| Season | Team | Start | Finish | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1914 | Boston Braves | 10-24 (.294) | 94-59-5 (.614) | Won World Series |
| 1981 | Kansas City Royals | 11-24 (.314) | 50-53 (.485) | Lost ALDS |
The Braves are the obvious perfect scenario for the Cardinals. Boston went 84-35-5 the rest of the season and came all the way back to beat the Athletics in the World Series.
The 1981 Royals are a bit of a different situation. The 1981 season was split in half by a players' strike. Kansas City went 20-30 before the season was suspended. Teams that won each division before the season was halted were given automatic bids to the playoffs. When the season resumed, the teams that won their divisions in the second half received the remaining spots. Kansas City went 30-23 in the second half to win the AL West. The Royals went to the playoffs and lost to the AL West's first-half champion Athletics in the first round.
Why St. Louis has struggled in 2023
There are a number of reasons that have led to St. Louis' issues. Some were areas coming into the season that were already viewed as possible areas of concern for the team. Others have been a bit more surprising.
Starting pitching
Arguably the biggest issue, and one that was expected to be a problem coming into the season, is the starting rotation. St. Louis lacked a true ace in the rotation, and was counting on 41-year-old Adam Wainwright to be its top starter.
St. Louis' rotation has an ERA of 5.33 as of Monday with a 1.3 fWAR (Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement), which ranks 23rd in baseball. And a rotation that lacks swing-and-miss stuff ranks 18th in K/9 (8.1) might struggle to improve much going further.
St. Louis ranks:
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) May 3, 2023
24th in rotation Stuff+
24th in rotation K%
21st in rotation ERA-
16th in bullpen Stuff+
5th in bullpen K-BB%
11th in wRC+
12th in wOBA
10th in Barrels
13th in Outs Above Average
11th in DRS
Seems like problem is clear. Not sure solution coming this year.
The only starter with multiple starts and an ERA below 5.40 is Jordan Montgomery and his 3.29 ERA.
Superstar struggles
Last year, St. Louis had two players finish in the top three in NL MVP voting. Paul Goldschmidt won the award and Nolan Arenado finished third. During the offseason, the Cardinals made another splash to sign catcher Willson Contreras, the backstop for the Cubs' drought-breaking World Series title.
Goldschmidt still looks every part the reigning NL MVP. He's slashing .321/.409/.582 with seven home runs. The other two stars have been, well, less than that.
Arenado has posted a .232/.282/.326 slash line with only three home runs to start the season. Contreras is slightly better at .265/.341/.393, but the issue for him has been in replacing Yadier Molina behind the plate, as the team reportedly plans to move him almost exclusively to designated hitter due to struggles in controlling the game behind the plate.
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Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said the team has been used to Molina handling everything behind the plate, and that there were a lot of things pitchers were used to with Molina that haven't been the same with Contreras.
“We’ve noticed a lot of puzzling trends we know we need to fix. We know we need to address it," Mozeliak said, according to The Athletic. "We just decided to do it head on, put it out there. Do we think we’ve seen Willson catch his last game? No. But this is going to take a little time to get him to where we feel he understands the expectations of what this role is for us.”
Not everything is the fault of Contreras and Arenado, both experienced bats who feel likely to bounce back. Tyler O'Neill has struggled to start the year with -0.3 fWAR and after a hot start, rookie Jordan Walker was sent down to the minors. Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar have been solid, but to date, Goldschmidt remains the only player with more than 0.7 fWAR (at 1.8).
Defense
The Cardinals last year were praised as a team that made every play on the field. St. Louis had five Gold Glove finalists and won two with Arenado at third and Brendan Donovan as the utility defender. The team collectively had a defensive runs saved of 67, tied for fourth in the majors, per Fangraphs.
This year has already been a different story. St. Louis is tied for 20th with minus-6 DRS. Arenado, backup catcher Andrew Knizer and O'Neill (in left field) are the only players with at least 100 innings at their respective positions with positive DRS. Contreras has been worth minus-3 behind the plate, Donovan is at minus-4 at second base and Walker had minus-6 before he was demoted.
For a team that already struggles to miss enough bats, it can't afford to lose much on defense. A sound defense was a major part in what allowed St. Louis to win the division in 2022 despite an underwhelming rotation.
