Confession: The Sporting News may need to apologize for something we told you about Shohei Ohtani. But it's really his fault. Or even ours, really. He just won't stop making history.
Two years ago, we did a big project ranking the 50 greatest individual sports seasons of all time, and we concluded that Ohtani's historic 2021 season was No. 1. It seemed like was definitely the right answer at the time. But we may have to issue a correction soon because, dangit, Ohtani has somehow leveled up.
Though you can make an argument that Ohtani's 2022 season (9.6 bWAR) was actually a cut above that 2021 campaign, his 2023 effort is trending toward indisputable as the second half gets under way Friday.
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Ohtani leads MLB in homers (32), triples (six), slugging percentage (.633), OPS (1.055) and total bases (226). On the mound, he's third in the AL in strikeouts with 132 and is second in his league with an 11.8 K/9 ratio. Elite with a capital E-L-I-T-E. And, oh yeah, he's also the hardest pitcher to hit in the majors, averaging just six hits allowed per nine innings pitched, and his .189 batting average against is best in the bigs.
So, naturally, he's already the runaway favorite for AL MVP — as runaway as a runaway can be, in fact — and there's not much any other player can do at this point to prevent that inevitability.
But don't let the MVP race distract from the historic nature of Ohtani's 2023 season.
Ohtani's combined bWAR through the first half was 6.5, easily the best in baseball. That means even a mild decline in production during the second half would lead to a full-season WAR of 10 or higher. His combined bWAR in 2021 — you know, the best individual season in sports history — was 9.
But WAR aside, Ohtani is on pace to hit 57 home runs, which would demolish the career-high 46 he hit in 2021 and threaten the all-time AL single-season record, set by Aaron Judge last season when he hit 62.
If Ohtani manages to seriously threaten Judge's record, or even if he just keeps up his normal offense (remember, his OPS is 1.050), and assuming he remains elite as a pitcher (remember, he's averaging nearly 12 K/9 and is super-duper hard to hit), it would be very hard to argue that his 2023 season was not his best ever and, therefore, the new greatest individual season in sports history.
Just to hammer home the point, compare his 2021 stats with his 2023 on-pace numbers:
2021: .257, 46 homers, 100 RBIs, .965 OPS; 9-2, 3.18 ERA, 156 Ks, 10.8 K/9; 9 bWAR
2023: .302, 57 homers, 126 RBIs, 1.055 OPS; 12-7, 3.32 ERA, 235 Ks, 11.8 K/9; 13 bWAR
In a word: G.O.A.T.
But, obviously, there's a long way to go, and "on pace" doesn't always equal "in reality." Plus, Ohtani has shown signs of being human. He left his last start before the All-Star Game with a finger blister, which kept him from showcasing his pitching wares in the Midsummer Classic. And while blisters tend to be a short-term issue, long-term seasonal health is never guaranteed in sports, especially with pitchers. So that'll be something to keep in mind as we watch Ohtani chase more historic greatness.
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There is another caveat here: It's possible that the Angels trade Ohtani at the deadline, given that they've failed to build a winner around him and seem to fall further out of contention with each game played. The stress of such an uprooting and new start with another team, perhaps even in another league, could affect Ohtani's production in a way that takes him off this historic path. It's also possible it could energize him in a way that makes his numbers even more silly.
In any case, if Ohtani's second half anywhere close to his first-half showing, don't be surprised to see that 50 greatest seasons list amended — with our most sincere, but gleeful, apologies.
