ST. LOUIS — Somehow, James Outman pulled off a rather incredible feat.
The lefty slugger managed to fly under the radar as a powerhouse prospect in a high-profile system known for creating future stars (the Dodgers) and he did so despite producing eye-opening numbers in the minor leagues in 2022. And the kicker? He hit .462 in 16 plate appearances in the Major Leagues at the end of the year, and STILL nobody outside the Dodgers’ organization and prospect gurus seemed to notice.
It’s almost hard to imagine, but that’s what happened. Heading into the 2023 season, Outman wasn’t even listed as an honorable mention on most NL Rookie of the Year predictions — eight guys were mentioned on MLB.com's preview, but not Outman — or on all but the deepest NL rookie odds listings by Vegas sports books. As far as I could tell, he never made a single Top 100 prospect list.
“Being under the radar,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told The Sporting News with a smile last week, “I don't think he minds that at all.”
Roberts paused.
“He’s not anymore.”
Outman is definitely no longer under the radar. That’s what happens when you win the NL Rookie of the Month award for April, with seven homers, 20 RBIs, four stolen bases and a .991 OPS, not to mention a highlight reel full of big moments like the ninth-inning grand slam he hit at Wrigley Field on April 20 to break a 2-2 tie and give the Dodgers the victory.
“It's been good,” Outman told TSN. “It's a lot of fun, tons of fun.”
May has been more of a struggle, but he’s still a big reason the Dodgers own a slim lead in the NL West over the rising Diamondbacks. His second grand slam late in a tie game to help his team win — this one, to break a 3-3 tie at home vs. the Twins in the eighth inning on May 17 — was one of those moments.
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Here’s another example of how Outman has been overlooked through most of his pro career. Heading into the 2023 season, he had very few mainstream baseball cards with his name and image on them. His first card was a 2019 Bowman Prospects, but he didn’t even rate a spot in the main checklist; his 1st Bowman card was an autograph-only insert.
He wasn’t in any other of Bowman’s 2019 prospects. He didn’t have any 2020 Bowman cards. He didn’t have any 2021 Bowman cards, either. In 2022, he only had one Bowman card, as part of the Arizona Fall League insert set. That’s it. The product that bills itself “The first place to find the game’s future stars” essentially ignored Outman the first five seasons of his professional career. He still doesn't have a single card produced by Panini, though that will change when the company's months-behind production schedule catches up and the 2023 releases start hitting shelves at some yet-to-be-announced point.
It’s a good thing his self-esteem wasn’t tied to cardboard currency, but rooted in his tireless work ethic and belief in his raw ability.
So here’s the question: Why was Outman so perpetually overlooked? We’ll start here:
“I mean, I was a seventh-rounder out of Sac State,” Outman said. “So, like, I get it. I get it for sure. I was, I'd say, an average college hitter. I don’t feel mad or anything.That’s just the way it worked out, and focusing on that, that’s not going to benefit me at all. I just wanted to play good ball."
Outman came off the bench as a freshman at Sacramento State, then was a starter as a sophomore and junior. His numbers both seasons were remarkably similar, to the point a person might double-check secondary sources to see if there was a copy-and-paste mistake. But, nope. He hit exactly .253 (literally, 58-for-229 both years) with 11 home runs and three triples both seasons. He had an .862 OPS as a sophomore, an .852 OPS as a junior. He had 16 doubles and 11 stolen bases as a sophomore, 15 and 12 as a junior.
In Baseball America’s draft report card, Outman was chosen as the best athlete in the Dodgers’ 2018 draft class. But there were questions.
“When you talk about college numbers,” Baseball America senior writer Kyle Glaser said, “it’s extremely rare for anyone who doesn't hit over .300 in college to go on to major league success. That’s especially true when you're talking about mid-majors, but it’s true for guys even in like the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC.
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“Obviously he had tools, he had physical athleticism. The question was just ‘Is he gonna hit?’ and generally speaking, the track record of similar players is they’re not.”
In his first full season in the Dodgers’ organization, Outman had 19 homers and 20 stolen bases, but batted just .226 with a .322 on-base percentage and a .729 OPS in the Low-A Midwest League. In his Age 22 season, he was among the older players in the league, and the questions that were asked when he was drafted — can he make enough contact to show the power, speed and athleticism at higher levels? — still seemed very valid.
“But one thing the Dodgers have been excellent at is swing changes,” said Glaser, who has written about the Dodgers’ system since 2017. “Will Smith hit .232 in High-A (at 22) and was a defense-first catcher. They changed his swing and now he’s one of the best offensive catchers in the majors. Obviously, Justin Turner, Max Muncy and all those guys, their swing-change work is famous. With Outman, they saw athleticism and aptitude. He's always been a very, very smart, focused kid who was going to work hard.”
That’s exactly what he did. There was no minor-league season in 2020, obviously, during the pandemic, and Outman spent the time well, working hard on fixing the holes in his swing.
The next spring, that’s when he first caught Roberts’ eye.
“It was probably two years ago in spring, just seeing him and having a conversation with him, seeing the raw power, realizing he could handle centerfield,” Roberts said. “And just the baseball acumen, the curiosity, he was engaged, and just the sheer talent, all those pieces. And then I was just eager to see him perform. And so you look at two years ago, you look at last year, he just really performed and then all the guys, credit to them for developing him.”
Outman split the 2021 season between High-A — where he was almost a year-and-a-half older than most of the ballplayers — and Double-A. The power and speed were still there, but the rate numbers jumped up, to the tune of a .379 on-base percentage and .869 OPS in 104 games. After that season, Baseball America ranked him as the No. 15 prospect in the Dodgers’ system, which as always was stacked, because a spot in the majors, maybe as a fourth outfielder/DH, started to seem possible.
“And then 2022, the swing changes and everything kind of clicked,” Glaser said. “I wrote about that in his scouting report for Baseball America; he controlled his leg lift a little more, adjusted his hand position and all the sudden the holes that were there, particularly on the inner half, where he really struggled, disappeared and he was getting through all that stuff.”
Outman split the season pretty evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, and the numbers were eye-opening: .294/.393/.586, with 31 homers, 106 RBIs, 31 doubles, 13 stolen bases and a .978 OPS in 125 games. The 2022 season, of course, included the dream debut in the bigs on July 31— he homered in his very first at-bat, and finished that game 3-for-4 with three RBIs and just a triple shy of the cycle. His stay there always was temporary, and after just four games Chris Taylor came off the injured list, and Outman went back to the minors.
He was entering his Age 26 season in 2023, which is old for most “prospects” but Baseball America bumped him up to No. 10 in the Dodgers’ system rankings.
“This is where context is important. You’re not just looking at age, but what’s the background?” Glaser said. “He’s a multi-sport guy who went to a mid-major and also lost a year during the pandemic, so you treat him more like he's really 24. And the background, this isn't a guy who was baseball-only, drafted out of high school, trying since he was 16 and has never hit.
“We ranked him the No. 10 prospect in the Dodgers system, which is kind of like being the No. 5 prospect in like half of the other systems in baseball.”
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The talent around him was obvious.
“It's pretty humbling, you know, just seeing the guys that we have like coming up to the system,” Outman said. “You look around and it’s like, ‘Damn, this guy’s a stud. And this guy’s a stud. And this guy’s a stud. So to be able to come up and debut with the Dodgers and play it’s an honor.”
It’s a richly deserved honor, the product of years of hard work.
“The athleticism and power was there from the moment he was drafted. We all knew it, it’s in the draft report card,” Glaser said. “It was just a question about whether he was gonna hit, and to his credit, he consistently improved his swing, made adjustments and changed how his swing operates. And it took years. It wasn't like one minor tweak unlocked everything. I mean, he needed a pretty significant overhaul, and that’s not easy.
“We talk about the successes of the guys who do that, the (Justin) Turners, the Max Muncys, but I'll tell you right now, for every one that succeeds, there's 10 more guys who try it and fail, and you never hear about them because they never make it out of minor leagues. It's very difficult, and he did it, which is a testament to him.”
And remember how he hit exactly .253 for Sacramento State his sophomore and junior seasons (2017-18), with an OPS of .862, then .852?
For the Dodgers this year, Outman’s batting .252, with an .850 OPS, to go with nine homers, 28 RBIs, eight doubles, three triples and 28 runs scored in 178 plate appearances.
And the pitching he’s facing now is just a bit better than the mid-major arms he faced back then.
