ZOZO Championship 2023: Our PGA professional's best bets and top props

ZOZO Championship: Off to Asia

The fourth of seven events in the FedEx Cup Fall series takes us to Tokyo for the ZOZO Championship. This event will forever be remembered for when Tiger Woods won its inaugural edition in 2019. Woods' 19 under par total earned him his 82nd career PGA TOUR win, tying him for the most all-time with Sam Snead. The 2020 version was played in California at Sherwood Country Club. Since 2021, the event has returned to Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club; the site of Tiger’s win.

The field of 78 players features 15 of the top 50 in the OWGR. Despite the top-heavy betting board, I know we can still find value in our placements and with our outright prediction. The ZOZO is a 72-hole, no-cut event with a purse of $8.5 million. The winner’s check is worth $1.53 million and 500 valuable FedEx Cup points. Remember: only four events remain (including the ZOZO) to secure your TOUR card for 2024.

Our best bet of the week cashed at the Shriners Children’s Open. Local Las Vegas player Harry Hall finished 13 under par and in 26th place. That easily cashed a +145 top-40 bet.

The weather in Tokyo, Japan this week is going to keep the course in great condition. Temperatures are forecasted to start in the mid-70s on Thursday. On Friday afternoon, a front is going to blow through, and wind gusts are expected in the mid-20s. Temperatures are going to drop for the weekend into the mid-60s. The wind will calm down, and the overnight lows should increase the firmness of the ground.

The par-70 layout measures 7,079 yards. That is short by PGA TOUR standards, and the scorecard shows us why. Narashino CC has three par-5s, 10 par-4s, and FIVE par-3s. Approach accuracy is a skill needed to succeed in this top-heavy field. With favorites on the betting board like Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and defending champion Keegan Bradley, you better bring a solid iron game.

(For a direct connection to the betting boards, click the links in our Read The Line summary.)

Just those past champions at Narashino show you what it takes to win. Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tiger are all known as excellent ball-strikers. The average winning score between the three of them is 16 under par. This course is a stern test, and players will need to avoid mistakes as they attack the double-green complexes. Narashino CC has a unique setup. During the coverage, you will see two greens on every hole.

In Japan, the temperature varies widely from the warm to cold seasons. Therefore, premiere facilities like Narashino build two greens for each hole. One green has the cold-weather grass, and the second has the warm-weather surface. It’s a pretty crazy sight and one worth mentioning as you get prepared to watch the tournament on television. Speaking of coverage, be prepared from a betting perspective. All pre-tournament bets will need to be placed by Wednesday evening EDT.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the ZOZO Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

ZOZO Championship: Live Outright Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

ZOZO Championship: Always take the hot hand

Narashino Country Club has 73 bunkers and five holes where water comes into play. Accuracy is a necessity for contending and validated by the leaderboard. Nearly 30 percent of the holes played this week will only take one swing to get on the green. Those par-3s are where I start my outright process. Who are the best long iron players in the field? Second, I see there are also five par-4s over 485 yards long.

To keep pace with the top of the leaderboard, our outrights and best bets will need tremendous skill deep into the approach game. The other five par-4s all measure under 425 yards. That's quite the polar comparison — and those require tremendous wedge ability. In both cases, par-4 scoring is greatly assisted by long accurate tee shots. Strokes gained off the tee favors length in the equation. The leaders in that category have an edge at Narashino because the landing zones are tight.

A player can separate from the field with the driver at the ZOZO. For my betting card, I am favoring SG:OTT. Players will make a fair amount of bogeys at Narashino. Bogey avoidance and scrambling are also strongly considered in my research. Even with two greens on each hole, players only hit the TOUR average (66%) of their GIRs. I’m kidding about having two greens to hit, but you get the point. This golf course is one big accuracy contest.

At 7,000 yards, there is little room for error. PGA TOUR players are all world-class with their wedge game. If you are looking to differentiate yourself from the field this week, proximity to the hole leads to better birdie opportunities. You need a high rate of BoB% considering 12 holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent. In comparison, only six holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent and those are the five long par-4s and one par long par-3.

Hideki and Keegan are not known for their putting. Established ball strikers with some experience here remain my primary focus. The premium on accuracy allows for an average putter to win. Only 32 percent of players three-putt on average versus the PGA TOUR weekly rate (55%). These greens are not complicated, and it will show on the weekend leaderboard.

The first three weeks of the fall schedule have all been birdie-fests. I look forward to a more difficult test in Tokyo. Collin and Xander will have their hands full keeping up with a majority of players who all competed last week in Las Vegas. To reach the top 10 at Shriners you needed to be 17 under par! Confidence in your swing and scoring ability carries a lot of weight against those favorites who haven’t competed in a stroke event in over 50 days.

Play the par-3s under par. Go low on the par-5s and short par-4s. Follow that game plan and you will be in the conversation on Sunday morning. I really like this event and the golf course. Narashino rewards compression on the golf ball. It validates those in the field with ball speed and accuracy. Enjoy the entertainment, because I believe it is the last event where we will see any stars until December.

ZOZO Championship: Back to back Cam

Best bet to win: Cam Davis (+2200 BetMGM)

We keep betting Cam Davis, and he keeps finishing in the top 10. Narashino CC fits Cam's ball striking probably better than the Fortinet and Shriners. Davis is third in par-4 scoring, and second in strokes gained T2G. He's very strong around the green and at avoiding bogeys. His length and accuracy give him a great advantage on long par-4s. Take his recent form, course fit, and closer to a home time zone (he's Australian) and I like his chances to break through in Tokyo.

ZOZO Championship: Hideki’s house

To finish in the top 10: Hideki Matsuyama (+162 bet365)

Hideki Matsuyama has a win and runner-up finish in three starts at Narashino CC. Playing in his home country, Matsuyama will be in major championship form. The course design favors his ball striking beauty and lack of flatstick skill. Hideki will be on top of his game for the home crowd.

ZOZO Championship: Best Bet of the Week!

To finish in the top 20: Eric Cole (+105 bet365)

Eric Cole has 11 top-25 finishes since the last ZOZO. Fourth at the Fortinet and third last week in Vegas, Cole has been striking the ball solid. In his last five starts, he is gaining an average of 5.5 strokes against the field T2G. The putter is great, and that combination is why he is our best bet of the week!

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 25 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter