Sanderson Farms Championship: FedEx Cup Fall re-starts!
The Sanderson Farms Championship is known for first-time winners and exciting finishes. Hosted by the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi, this is the only PGA TOUR event to have been played in all four seasons. Moving around on the calendar usually isn’t a great sign, but the TOUR is still offering an $8.2 million dollar purse for the next FedEx Cup Fall event.
We had a much better week at Read The Line than the American Ryder Cup team. Our LPGA coverage predicted tournament winner Hae Ran Ryu (+2500) for our 13th win of the year!
The Ryder Cup captivated our attention for the past six weeks. Conversations and critiques turned into an excellent display of European golf. Europe's consistent performance proved their team was ready, and as a result they took the Ryder Cup back. A majority of the 24 players who did participate in the world’s most popular biannual golf match won’t be seen again this fall. We’ll see them in January when the TOUR restarts at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
One player from the European team is playing and serves as the favorite in Jackson. Ludvig Åberg leads the odds board at +1200. The young phenom needs to solidify his card and remind us what the fall run of tournaments is all about. We have six events on the schedule remaining for 55 players to qualify for 2024. Remember: the top 70 are set from the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Åberg was in college last spring at Texas Tech. He and the rest of the Sanderson Farms field is focused on the par-72 layout for those much-needed qualifying points. Measuring 7,461 yards, CC of Jackson forces you to use the driver. We’ll get more into the secret recipe for Sanderson success in a moment. The forecast in Mississippi has been great for course conditions. All 27 holes at the CC of Jackson are in phenomenal condition.
(For a direct connection to the betting boards, click the links in our Read The Line summary.)
The PGA TOUR uses the Dogwood and Azalea nines for the tournament course. Designed with 56 bunkers and five holes where water comes into play, the Mike Gogel design annually ranks as one of the easier courses on the TOUR. Even with fairways inside the top-10 narrowest on the PGA TOUR, the average winning score in Jackson over the past five years is 19 under par. The only thing higher than the BoB% is the average pre-tournament odds of the last nine winners (+16900). Eight of those nine champions had odds over +5500 (55-1).
The field of 144 will be cut to the top 65 and ties for the weekend. The forecast calls for a small chance of rain on Friday. Otherwise, temperatures will be in the high-70s and mid-80s throughout. Winds should blow in the low teens and course conditions are as good as Bermudagrass can get. Yes, we are down south, so the 6,200 square foot greens are covered in that grainy grass. We will certainly favor those who can putt well south of the border.
The Sanderson Farms may lack the passion of the Ryder Cup, but we will see plenty of emotion on display. These guys are not playing for their country — they are playing for their careers. Qualifying this fall will get tense, and with just six weeks on the schedule everyone needs a sense of urgency.
To those who only read my predictions at the Sporting News, I encourage you to read my newsletter called Read The Line. Since January, I have predicted 965 bets covering the PGA TOUR and LPGA. The net return is over 15% with THIRTEEN outright wins!
For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Sanderson Farms Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Sanderson Farms Championship: Live Outright Odds
Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
| Player | Odds |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1100 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +1800 |
| Eric Cole | +2000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2500 |
| Keith Mitchell | +2800 |
| S.H. Kim | +3000 |
| Beau Hossler | +3000 |
| Lucas Herbert | +3500 |
| Adam Svensson | +3500 |
| Lee Hodges | +4000 |
| K.H. Lee | +4000 |
| Garrick Higgo | +4000 |
| Davis Riley | +4000 |
| Alex Smalley | +4000 |
| Sam Stevens | +4500 |
| Sam Ryder | +4500 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | +4500 |
| Hayden Buckley | +4500 |
| Doug Ghim | +4500 |
| Davis Thompson | +4500 |
Sanderson Farms Championship: Drive for show, putt for dough
The Sanderson Farms Championship has been contested at the CC of Jackson since 2014. With nine years to research, we know what it takes to grab the chicken trophy. At 7,400 yards, the driver helps — but the truth is, winners gain half as much off the tee as they do with their putter. The last nine champions have gained an average of six strokes on their competitors with the flatstick more so than any other major strokes gained category. Players make putts here.
Good putters can distance themselves from the pack. Only once in nine years has the winner gained less than three strokes against the field. The second strokes gained category you need to separate is approach play. Winners are gaining an average of five strokes versus their competitors. They do it with wedges and short irons in their hands. Nearly 40 percent of iron shots are taken from 125-175 yards. These guys are all very good from this range. The best way to separate the contenders is to study their proximity.
Who gains the best opportunities with their wedges? The players who hit the fairway and attack from close range are the basis for our best bets. Bermudagrass is another differentiating factor in Jackson. One of the grainiest blades of grass these players will face, certain players rate better on these surfaces. In my research, I have separated out the non-Bermuda performers.
The road map to 20 under par at CC of Jackson requires prolific par-5 scoring. The average par-5 length is 580 yards. It sounds long to us, but three of the four par-5s are reachable by a majority of the field. Throw in the drivable par-4 15th hole and you have five of the easiest birdie holes on the course. With so much scoring potential, bogey avoidance is also a key analytic.
The average cutline for all nine years is 1.3 under par. The difference between the leaders and the players making the cut is quite large, proof that bogeys happen often at CC of Jackson and that in order to maintain your momentum, you will need a reliable short game. Another area to help differentiate is in par-4 scoring. A majority of the par-4s are under 440 yards and relinquish plenty of low scores. Take advantage of those wedge approaches when you can.
There has been one full field PGA TOUR event in eight weeks. These players have been working on their game and thinking about their career future. Driven athletes like to compete. Waiting this long will bring out the best in our contenders this week. I expect a fast-paced scoring affair right from the start on Thursday. Our card represents the best Bermudagrass scorers of the bunch. Get behind these motivated men and let’s start a nice fall run of our own.
Sanderson Farms Championship: I know you Ryder
Best bet to win: Sam Ryder (+4500 on BetMGM)
In his last four starts, Sam Ryder has not finished outside the top 31. Ryder is an excellent wedge player and ranked top-10 in ball striking for the field. His best putting surface is Bermuda. The combination of par 4/5 scoring and Ryder’s ability to attack on approach set him apart. Sam has gained more than five strokes T2G against the field (on average) over his past five starts. His bogey avoidance and BoB% are also in line with the favorites to win this week.
Sanderson Farms Championship: It is pronounced “O” berg.
To finish in the top 10: Ludvig Åberg (+175 bet365)
What else can be said about Ludvig Åberg? He was a contributing force in the Ryder Cup. Now he heads to a field with just a couple players in the top-50 OWGR — on a course far less challenging than Marco Simone — and under much less pressure. It is a stretch to see him winning, but this is definitely a great spot for a top 10 to cash.
Sanderson Farms Championship: Best Bet of the Week!
To finish in the top 40: MJ Daffue (+120 bet365)
MJ Daffue is third in the field for driving and eighth in putting. The South African ball striker makes a ton of birdies (BoB% eighth). He’s ranked sixth in the field in par-5 scoring and has eight top-40 finishes in 2023. Sanderson Farms always shares a couple of new names with us. Daffue’s driver is a weapon and it will allow him to separate from some of the other longshots at the CC of Jackson.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 25 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter
