As Red Bull's Max Verstappen continues his charge towards a third consecutive World Drivers' Championship title in Formula 1, multiple other drivers are beginning to feel the pressure at the halfway point of the 2023 season.
With a number of racers on expiring contracts during the current season, constructors will be thinking about the best moves that they can make in terms of their lineup for 2024.
Several seats are up for grabs as a result, but will we see much movement after the 2023 season concludes with the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in late November?
The Sporting News' global F1 writers Nathan Evans (UK), Sergio Rabinal (Spain) and Joshua Mayne (Australia) run through their predictions for the 2024 grid.
MORE: Which driver has recorded the most wins in an entire Formula One season?
F1 2024 early grid predictions
| Team | Nathan's predictions | Josh's predictions | Sergio's predictions |
| Red Bull | Max Verstappen | Max Verstappen | Max Verstappen |
| Red Bull | Sergio Perez | Sergio Perez | Alex Palou |
| Ferrari | Charles Leclerc | Charles Leclerc | Charles Leclerc |
| Ferrari | Carlos Sainz | Carlos Sainz | Carlos Sainz |
| Mercedes | Lewis Hamilton | Lewis Hamilton | Lewis Hamilton |
| Mercedes | George Russell | George Russell | George Russell |
| Aston Martin | Fernando Alonso | Fernando Alonso | Fernando Alonso |
| Aston Martin | Lance Stroll | Lance Stroll | Lance Stroll |
| McLaren | Lando Norris | Lando Norris | Lando Norris |
| McLaren | Oscar Piastri | Oscar Piastri | Oscar Piastri |
| Alpine | Esteban Ocon | Esteban Ocon | Esteban Ocon |
| Alpine | Pierre Gasly | Pierre Gasly | Pierre Gasly |
| Williams | Alex Albon | Alex Albon | Alex Albon |
| Williams | Logan Sargeant | Logan Sargeant | Logan Sargeant |
| Alfa Romeo | Valtteri Bottas | Valtteri Bottas | Valtteri Bottas |
| Alfa Romeo | Zhou Guanyu | Zhou Guanyu | Zhou Guanyu |
| AlphaTauri | Yuki Tsunoda | Yuki Tsunoda | Yuki Tsunoda |
| AlphaTauri | Liam Lawson | Daniel Ricciardo | Sergio Perez |
| Haas | Daniel Ricciardo | Kevin Magnussen | Daniel Ricciardo |
| Haas | Nico Hulkenberg | Nico Hulkenberg | Nico Hulkenberg |
Red Bull
Nathan: Not only is Verstappen cruising towards a third straight title in 2023, but he also holds the longest current contract on the grid with his current deal set to expire in 2028. As such, there’ll be no movement there but could Red Bull let go of Sergio Perez? While his performances up until the British Grand Prix were poor with five consecutive missed Q1 appearances, the Mexican responded well in Belgium with a P2 finish. Given his contract is up at the end of next season, I expect the Austrian manufacturers to let him see it out, just.
Joshua: Verstappen isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but there are plenty of question marks surrounding Perez. While his race pace is mighty impressive, his qualifying performances have been concerning. The Mexican was eliminated in Q1 again in Silverstone, forcing him to charge his way up the grid to earn points. Despite this, he sits second in the drivers’ championship, so Red Bull will likely be content enough with his output heading into 2024.
Sergio: If Red Bull doesn’t fail in the coming years, Verstappen will finish his F1 career in Milton Keynes. Something that could be said about Perez too, but for different reasons. The rise of Alex Palou, the 2021 IndyCar champ and frontrunner for this year’s title, is being monitored by Red Bull. He has a contract with McLaren for next year but my take is that the Spaniard will drive alongside Verstappen in 2024.
Ferrari
Nathan: Although ultimately I’m backing Ferrari to stick with Leclerc and Sainz, there are some serious questions being asked about both the drivers and team of late. With a new team principal in charge in Frederic Vasseur — who didn’t sign either driver's most recent contract — a switch wouldn’t surprise. It’s clear that Leclerc is still viewed as the team’s No.1 but Sainz's continuing struggles are becoming problematic.
Joshua: It has been an underwhelming campaign for Ferrari thus far as they navigate life under new team principal Vasseur. Their car has been good but not great, leaving them chasing rivals such as Mercedes and Aston Martin. I don’t think their drivers are the problem, though, with Leclerc and Sainz providing a well-balanced and relatively experienced partnership. Expect them to stay put for the foreseeable future.
Sergio: It doesn’t make sense for Leclerc, Sainz or Ferrari to look outside for a new driver or team. The Italians are still trying to figure out about the car, something that has created some tensions inside the Scuderia. With Mercedes and McLaren locked for the next season, I can see Leclerc and Sainz driving together in red for the next season.
Mercedes
Nathan: There’s a big discussion to be had between Mercedes and Hamilton on whether their current affiliation will continue into next season. At present, the Brit's contract is up this year, and although both sides have hinted at an extension in the near future, Hamilton remains outwardly disappointed in his team’s performance since the end of 2021. As for compatriot and teammate Russell, he’ll be with the team again next season given he’s under contract until late 2024 and you’d fully expect his next contract to make him the lead driver for 2025.
Joshua: Hamilton’s future is unclear at the moment as he searches for an eighth world title. Mercedes simply can’t compete with Red Bull and Verstappen at the moment, so it’s understandable that the Brit might want a change of scenery. But where could he realistically go that would improve his chances? As for Russell, he’s yet to win a world championship, but certainly has the talent to do so. He could easily become the Silver Arrows’ main man very soon.
Sergio: Two of the best drivers of the grid and, probably, the best lineup of this season (at least the most balanced). Hamilton has earned the right to decide when he wants to retire and despite the performance of the W13 and W14, he still has it. He’s fast, he’s tenacious, and he knows how to maximise the car. Russell is the future of Mercedes but, as we have seen this 2023, he has a long way to go and he has to level up.
Aston Martin
Nathan: With veteran Alonso fighting for podium positions in 2023 and contracted on a ‘multi-year’ deal, we’re not expecting much movement at Aston Martin. As he 42-year-old seems to be enjoying his time with the team and offering a plethora of knowledge which is helping to shape the car, it seems a strong partnership has been struck. As for Stroll, since his father owns the team, expect to see him in the famous green of AM for years to come.
Joshua: Despite his age, it’s clear that Alonso is nowhere near done with F1. He made the surprising, but smart, move to Aston Martin for this season, and will remain with the team until the end of 2024 at least. With Lawrence Stroll still in ownership of the team, his son Lance should remain Alonso’s partner for as long as possible, too.
Sergio: Alonso could drive until Verstappen decided to finish his career in F1 and he would keep scoring points, making good overtakes and being competitive. The point for Alonso is not how much he can do for Aston Martin, but how much the Silverstone’s team can do for him in terms of building a strong and winning car. The bad thing for the future of Aston Martin is that Stroll will keep his seat, whatever happens.
McLaren
Nathan: Norris will remain the lead driver at McLaren through until the end of 2025 given the hefty contract extension he signed back in 2022. His recent P2 finishes at the 2023 British and Hungarian Grand Prix highlight him as arguably the best young driver on the grid and he’ll have plenty of big suitors come the end of his contract but for now, McLaren won’t be giving him up. As for his teammate, Piastri will continue in 2024 after seriously impressing during his rookie season to date. The young Australian agreed his current contract under controversial circumstances with Alpine announcing his imminent arrival before an agreement was even fully reached, and it looks like McLaren played a blinder there.
Joshua: When it comes to young talent, McLaren are laughing. Despite having yet to win a Grand Prix, Norris is set for a very strong career in motorsport. As for Piastri, he has already shown off his impressive ability in his rookie season. Both drivers are contracted for 2024, and could be in papaya for some time to come if the team continues to improve.
Sergio: McLaren are always unpredictable. And thinking about 2024 the only thing that they have secure is the lineup. Norris and Piastri are young, fast and know how to maximise the car. Norris is a future multiple Grand Prix winner and Piastri has the potential to become a world champion. Will that happen in the next year? Probably not.
Alpine
Nathan: French team, two French drivers, what’s not to like? This season has had its ups and downs for Alpine but overall, with both Ocon and Gasly under contract until the end of the 2024 season, I can’t see why we'd see a change.
Joshua: Alpine would undoubtedly have hoped for better output in terms of championship points this season, but they have the right ingredients for future success. It appears that any previous personal tension between Gasly and Ocon has been put aside. Both have been unlucky at times this season — notably with their double DNF at Silverstone. However, Ocon’s Monaco podium proved that the car (and drivers) are more than capable.
Sergio: The decision to have two French drivers in a French team is not giving Alpine the results they wanted, but the problem is not Gasly or Ocon, rather the structure of the team. Alpine needs to fix the weaknesses of the car and build around that pair.
Williams
Nathan: Unlike other teams, Williams find themselves in a situation where both of their drivers, Albon and Sargeant, are out of contract at the end of 2023 — but I’m predicting both will get a year-long extension. For Albon, that works because it secures his seat on the grid but it also allows for potential movement next offseason when it feels like bigger moves are going to be made up and down the lineup. As for Sargeant, he’s shown glimpses of talent this season so far, despite his lack of points, while his nationality offers Williams extra marketability with the US becoming a key audience for the sport in recent times.
Joshua: Williams will have some important decisions to make, with both their drivers out of contract heading into 2024. Albon has seriously impressed this season, and could have bigger teams eyeing him off. Williams, though, will be very keen to keep him. As for Logan Sargeant, he is still developing as a rookie. He is yet to score points in F1, but I’d imagine he'd stay for at least one more season — for both commercial and performance potential reasons.
Sergio: I can see a quiet silly season, with Albon re-signing with Williams, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the British team look outside to replace Sargeant. Theo Pourchaire or Fredik Vesti will get their Super License when the F2 season finishes in November, and both have the abilities to take the American's seat.
Alfa Romeo
Nathan: With a contract until the end of 2025, Bottas will definitely continue with the Sauber F1 Team, which is due to change from Alfa Romeo to another title sponsor in 2024. Although this current season has proven tough, just like with Alonso at Aston Martin, the Finnish driver offers substantial experience and insight for his team which continues to prove vital to their growth. Guanyu sees his contract expire this coming winter, though another extension seems likely. The 24-year-old Chinese driver may not have delivered points so far in 2023 but it seems that his position is somewhat safe for now.
Joshua: It has been a very quiet year for Alfa Romeo, but they don’t seem like the kind of team to make dramatic changes for 2024. The reliable Bottas is contracted for another two seasons, so his seat is safe. Guanyu, on the other hand, may be at risk. Pourchaire has been a long-term member of the team’s talent program, and is definitely an option. The question is whether his performances will outweigh the commercial benefits of having a Chinese driver.
Sergio: After four seasons without a Chinese Grand Prix, in 2024 the F1 will go back there, and Guanyu has to be with Alfa Romeo. This young driver has performed much better than what the results showed, like Bottas. The car is unreliable and not too fast, but they’re thinking about the introduction of Audi for 2026.
AlphaTauri
Nathan: Despite AlphaTauri arguably having the worst car on the grid in 2023, Tsunoda has shone. Points finishes have been hard to come by, but the young Japanese driver has found strong form in part this season. We won't be seeing Nyck De Vries next season after he was replaced by Ricciardo by Helmut Marko after some poor form during the opening ten races of this calendar. I don't think the Aussie will be there next year though, so I’m picking Liam Lawson to take this seat full time for 2024. The 21-year-old from New Zealand is part of the Red Bull academy and currently acts as a reverse driver for the senior F1 team, and given AlphaTauri’s reputation of working with young, upcoming drivers, this move makes sense. Granted, Ricciardo could make the seat his own but it feels like with the need for young talent at AlphaTauri as mentioned above, he'll either be at Red Bull or elsewhere on the grid in 2024 depending on how his stint goes this time around.
Joshua: Tsunoda’s contract expires at the end of this season, but I believe he has done enough this campaign to earn another deal with AlphaTauri. As for the other seat, Ricciardo has the remainder of the season to prove why he still belongs in F1. It will be challenging in arguably the weakest car on the grid, but a six-month spell may have done wonders. Although I believe signing reserve driver Lawson is the best move for 2024, Ricciardo brings experience and positive PR to a team with an uphill battle on its hands.
Sergio: Perez has been a disappointment for some people, but his time in Red Bull has been a quick recap of what his career has been since he got a seat in Sauber. He’s fast, but not too much. He’s good on Sundays, but unpredictable on Saturdays and inconsistent enough to pair with Max. Yuki won’t go anywhere in my opinion, but that can be his last chance.
Haas
Nathan: With Magnussen’s contract coming to an end this season, I really fancy Haas to make a splash and bring in Ricciardo. The American team were interested in bringing the Aussie favourite when looking for a Mick Schumacher replacement back in 2022, and his marketability remains high, which could ultimately bring some big sponsorship deals which the team desperately need. It also makes sense for Ricciardo himself, who is no doubt desperate to gain his spot back on the grid next season permanently. He has been announced as an AlphaTauri for the second half of the 2023 season, but if that doesn't go according to plan, Haas could swoop. I expect Hulkenberg to return after doing well this season, grabbing some lofty spots in qualifying, in particular, which makes him a well-rounded yet cheap option.
Joshua: Haas have found themselves in the back half of the grid regularly this season, with no major signs of improvement. Hulkenberg has been a positive addition, though, making the most of a late-career move. He is contracted until the end of 2024, so he will be sitting pretty for now. Magnussen is out of contract at the end of this season, however, and Haas will need to decide whether they stick with two veteran drivers. Pietro Fittipaldi — who has been involved with the team as a reserve and test driver for several years — is waiting in the wings, but he was snubbed for a full-time role following Nikita Mazepin’s exit, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be picked. I imagine Magnussen will extend for one more year.
Sergio: Magnussen's time in F1 is coming to an end and I can see Ricciardo coming back in 2024 with Haas. The Australian will bring sponsors and perform quite well for them. Hulkenberg is good enough (and cheap enough) to keep his seat.
