USA vs Portugal prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for USWNT in Women's World Cup group finale

Kyle Bonn

USA vs Portugal prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for USWNT in Women's World Cup group finale image

After laying an egg in the first half of the 1-1 draw with the Netherlands last time out, the U.S. women have a lot to improve on as they match up against Portugal in the final match of Group E play.

They only need a draw to advance to the knockout round, but will likely require victory to have a shot at topping the group, as the Dutch get to finish against Vietnam.

Portugal are no slouch, despite playing in their first Women's World Cup tournament, and knowing they likely need a win to have a chance at the knockout stage, the European side will throw everything they have at the U.S.

After U.S. head coach Vlatko Andonovski named an unchanged XI against the Netherlands, which backfired, it will be fascinating to see if he decides to stick to his guns again, or concede that rotation will be necessary to improve the performance.

LIVE BLOG: Follow along prematch, in-game, and postgame as the USWNT take on Portugal

USA vs Portugal odds

The United States are the clear favorites in this match, but their poor attacking performances have muted expectations somewhat coming into this Group E finale.

Between the two sides failing to produce significant attacking pressure so far, and the knowledge that the U.S. just need a draw to advance into the knockout stage, the odds clearly favor less scoring in this game.

MORE: All scenarios for the USWNT to reach the knockout stage of the 2023 Women's World Cup

  USA
win
Draw Portugal
win
Both teams
to score Y / N
Over / Under
2.5 goals
USA
-1.5
POR
+1.5
BetMGM
(USA)
-375 +450 +1000 +140 / -200 -135 / -105 -130 -110
Sports
Interaction

(Canada)
-400 +440 +1000 +131 / -208 -132 / -101 -127 -104
SkyBet
(UK)
2/9 9/2 11/1 6/4, 1/2 4/5, 10/11
Unibet
(Australia)
1.28 5.80 9.50 2.65 / 1.46 1.85 / 1.91 1.86 1.98
Dafabet
(India)
1.24 5.10 10.00 2.50 / 1.47 1.80 / 1.90 1.79 1.91

USA vs Portugal match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, July 31, 2023
  • Kickoff Time: 3 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. BST / 5 p.m. AEST
  • Location: Eden Park (Auckland, New Zealand)
  • Official: Rebecca Welch (ENG)
  • Last meeting: USA 1-0 Portugal (Jun. 10, 2021 | Friendly)

USA vs Portugal team news

United States

The U.S. forwards struggled mightily against the Netherlands in their last Group E match, so it's possible that Vlatko Andonovski makes changes up front. Lynn Williams and Alyssa Thompson are the likely candidates to be rotated in, but until there's any indication of that possibility, expect Andonovski to keep the faith in Sophia Smith and Trinity Rodman. If he does decide to make a change, Rodman is the likelier of the two to be withdrawn.

It was expected that Rose Lavelle was fit to start last time out against the Netherlands, but that was not the case, with Andonovski claiming she was limited to 45 minutes of action. She came on at halftime and made a huge impact, so if she's finally fully match fit, she will start. There's also questions about where Julie Ertz will play, but with Andi Sullivan struggling mightily at the No. 6 spot last time out, expect Ertz to move into midfield and Alana Cook to make her first start in defense.

Injuries hit the U.S. hard before the tournament, leaving Mallory SwansonBecky SauerbrunnChristen Press, and Catarina Macario all unable to prove fit for World Cup duty.

MORE: Player ratings from the 1-1 draw with the Netherlands show improvement is needed

Portugal

Portugal head coach Francisco Neto made big changes to his lineup from game one to game two, so it remains to be seen if he sticks with those who entered against Vietnam or switches back to others who played the narrow loss to the Netherlands.

Playmaker Andreia Norton of Benfica started the opener at the No. 10 spot, but was an incredible 2-of-22 on ground duels, and was one of those replaced for the next game. In her place stepped her Benfica teammate Kika Nazareth, who picked up a goal against Vietnam, and created three chances for her teammates.

Three Portugal players are on yellow card suspensions, meaning another booking for Jessica SilvaDiana Gomes, or captain Ana Borges would see them banned a potential Round of 16 game should they qualify.

USA vs Portugal key stats

  • The United States women have scored a goal in 14 straight Women's World Cup matches, dating back to a 0-0 draw with Sweden in the 2015 group stage.
  • In 10 all-time matches between these two clubs, the U.S. has won all 10, by a combined 39-0 scoreline.
  • Portugal striker Jessica Silva has just 13 goals in 102 international caps, but she bagged 16 goals for Benfica in the Portuguese top flight last season, finishing second in the league behind Canada's Cloe Lacasse.
  • 22 of 23 players on the USWNT roster are attached to USA-based NWSL clubs. 18 Portugal players are playing domestically, with nine of them at reigning champions Benfica.

USA vs Portugal prediction

  • Moneyline lean: USA (-375)
  • Score prediction: USA 1-0 Portugal

The United States have been poor up front through this tournament, but even against the Netherlands where they didn't have close to their best, they managed an equalizing goal and a point.

Despite conceding more possession than they're used to, the USWNT still held the Dutch to just five total shots over the 90 minutes.

Thus, even if the U.S. continue to struggle, they should manage to pull out a victory here against a wasteful Portugal side that has shown signs of positive growth over the last few years, but still remains significantly behind the top echelon of women's football teams.

USA vs Portugal best bet

  • Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
  • Odds: -115 (BetMGM)

The U.S. have, quite simply, looked poor up front so far in this tournament. Despite boasting supreme talent and depth, the front three of Sophia Smith, Alex Morgan, and Trinity Rodman have not been sharp in the final third.

Finishing was the issue against Vietnam in the opener, but creativity suffered against the Dutch last time out, as Smith and Rodman were extremely wasteful on the ball throughout. Against a Portugal defense that shut out England in a summer friendly, and held the Netherlands to just one goal, the chances will be few and far between, even if the U.S. improve up front. They should get a goal, but it will be tough sledding.

Portugal, meanwhile, have very little up front. They managed just two shots against the Netherlands, and while that total ballooned to 29 against Vietnam, they only finished two of those chances, racking up an insane nine "big chances" missed. Finishing is an issue, and they don't create a ton either against top defenses.

USA vs Portugal prop bet

  • Pick: Rose Lavelle to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: -125 (FanDuel)

Having come off the bench to make a positive impact on both U.S. matches thus far, Rose Lavelle should start this game. Yet we thought that last time too, and Vlatko Andonovski surprised many by limiting her to just the second half.

Yet she still managed to pick up the assist on Lindsey Horan's equalizer, and she's the biggest game-changer the U.S. have. Starting will obviously give her a much better chance to pull through here, but either way, she'll see the field, and she will undoubtedly make a big push for a goal contribution.

USA vs Portugal flier bet

  • Pick: Sophia Smith 3+ shots on target
  • Odds: +400 (BetMGM)

If you're looking for one player in particular in the U.S. forward unit to bounce back, Sophia Smith is your bet. The 22-year-old was awful in the first half against the Dutch, but in truth, no American played well through those 45 minutes. She improved mightily in the second half, especially in the final 15 minutes when the U.S. had the Netherlands under heavy pressure.

Smith got four shots against Vietnam and put two of them on target, bagging goals with both. Yet she's capable of higher volume. Prior to the Women's World Cup, Smith had collected at least five total shots in five straight matches for club and country and 10 of the last 13, and she put at least three on target in six of those games.

Even against the Netherlands, when the U.S. stunk, she still grabbed three shots. Against a defensive-minded Portugal side, this will be a very high bar to clear, but that also means better odds, and if anyone on the U.S. can put the struggles in the rear-view mirror and carry the team to victory, it's the Portland Thorns star.

USA vs Portugal live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA FOX, Telemundo Fubo, Fox Sports site/app,
Peacock (Spanish),
Telemundo Deportes site/app
UK IVT1, STV Scotland ITVX, STV Player
Australia  — Optus Sport
Canada TSN1, TSN4,
TSN5
TSN+,
TSN site/app,
RDS site/app
India DD Sports FanCode
New Zealand Sky Sport 1 NZ Prime TV, Sky Sport NOW
Singapore FIFA WWC CH01 StarHub TV+, meWATCH
Hong Kong Now TV Viu TV
Malaysia  — FIFA+

Fans in select regions of the world can stream the Women's World Cup live on FIFA+, including in Japan, Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand. 

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn Photo

Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.