Spain vs Netherlands prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for 2023 Women's World Cup quarterfinal

With Spain back to their high-flying selves, they take on a gritty Netherlands side in the Women's World Cup quarterfinals from Wellington.

Both these teams dream of World Cup glory for various reasons. Spain, in the midst of a golden generation, have longed for silverware to legitimize their rise to women's football prominence. The Dutch, meanwhile, fell just short in the 2019 final, and now with the United States out of the way, it feels like a chance to exorcise those demons amidst talk they would struggle to get another opportunity.

Spain appeared one of the most ferocious sides in the early part of the tournament, but a 4-0 humbling by Japan in the group-stage finale saw them finish second in Group C. They took out their frustration on Switzerland in a 5-1 Round of 16 victory, but worries that they cannot beat the world's most in-form sides remain.

Netherlands, however, are without one of their most influential players as midfielder Danielle van de Donk is suspended for yellow card accumulation. Van de Donk's physical presence is a vital part of how the Dutch play, and whoever replaces the squad's second most-capped player has big shoes to fill.

Spain vs Netherlands match facts

• Date: Friday, August 11, 2023
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. ET (Thu, Aug. 10) / 2 a.m. BST / 11 a.m. AEST
• Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington, New Zealand)
• Official: Stephanie Frappart (FRA)
• Last meeting: Spain 2-0 Netherlands (Feb. 27, 2019 | Algarve Cup)

Spain vs Netherlands prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+230)
• Score prediction: Spain 1-1 Netherlands

Underestimating the Dutch in this match would be a criminal miscalculation, as bookmakers seem to have done. Japan kicked Spain right in the teeth from the start of their final group-stage game, holding just 23 percent possession but scoring four times in on the counter-attack.

The Netherlands play a more physical style than Japan, but they can also defend for long stretches and hold out for a vicious counter — a style to which Spain proved vulnerable in that defeat. The absence of Van de Donk is a truly troubling issue for the Netherlands, but they have the replacements to paper over that hole. Spain may find a way through, but they will get a true battle for the semifinal spot.

Spain vs Netherlands: best bet

• Pick: Spain 5+ shots on target
• Odds: 8/11 (UK betting sites)

This feels like a low bar for Spain, but in truth, it's not exactly. They cleared this threshold by a mile in their three wins but managed just two shots on target in the loss to Japan. By contrast, the Dutch held the U.S. to just four shots on target in their 1-1 group-stage draw.

Still, those feel like anomalies more than anything. The United States had 18 total shots in that game, and only failed to score thanks to the finishing issues that plagued them all tournament. Spain were hemmed in by Japan and had just 10 shots, but still, putting only two on target seems a poor return when considering their inflated attacking numbers against lesser teams.

Spain won't get a ton of opportunities, but they'll manage to test Daphne van Domselaar plenty. She'll have to be on her game to keep this contest manageable. Expecting her to make five or six saves isn't unreasonable.

Spain vs Netherlands prop bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 total cards
• Odds: +200 (FanDuel)

While the Dutch play a physical style, they are not reckless by any stretch. Without their most at-risk player already suspended for accumulation, the Netherlands won't feel like they need to pummel Spain to hem them in. Indeed, Japan committed just three fouls against Spain in their 4-0 win, so that aggressive style isn't required to keep the possessionally dominant La Roja at bay.

On the flip side, Spain have been shown just one booking all tournament, coming in that Japan defeat. If they're ahead, and in control of possession, they won't have need to foul, and even if they're chasing the game, they don't succumb to frustration.

Veteran official Stephanie Frappart knows how to manage a game, and while she whistled 26 total fouls in her Round of 16 assignment between the United States and Sweden, she issued only two bookings. There were a few chances for her to hand out cautions early, but she kept the cards in her pocket instead of putting players on notice in the opening 20 minutes.

If you're nervous about the low total, you can get under 3.5 cards at -146, but the great return here is too good to pass up.

Spain vs Netherlands live stream, TV channel

Fans in select regions of the world can stream the Women's World Cup live on FIFA+, including in Japan, Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand.