Spain vs Italy prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for UEFA Nations League semifinal 2023

The 2023 UEFA Nations League will treat fans to a heavyweight semifinal clash as Spain and Italy meet with a chance to reach the title match against Croatia.

The two European powers are both facing some uncertainty heading into the match, but it will be up to the respective managers to put those storylines aside and produce a result across the 90 minutes of action in the Netherlands.

Spain, under new manager Luis de la Fuente, fell to Scotland in March 2023, and have lost three of their last four dating back to the World Cup in December, where they produced a shaky group stage showing, barely escaping before falling to Morocco in a Round of 16 penalty shootout.

Italy, meanwhile, missed out on the World Cup for the second straight edition, and their attempt to bounce back has not been convincing, falling to Austria in a friendly back in November 2022 before suffering defeat to England in the March 2023 round of Euro qualifying matches.

MORE: Preview USA vs Mexico in CONCACAF Nations League with odds, picks, and a match prediction

Spain vs Italy match facts

• Date: Thursday, June 15
• Kickoff Time: 2:45 p.m. ET / 7:45 p.m. BST / 4:45 a.m. AEST (Fri, Jun. 16)
• Location: De Grolsch Veste (Enschede, Netherlands)
• Official: Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
• Last meeting: Italy 1-2 Spain (Oct. 6, 2021 | UEFA Nations League)

Spain vs Italy prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Spain (+125)
• Score prediction: Spain 2-1 Italy

Both these teams are coming off disappointing recent defeats back in March, but they both have a chance to rectify that with a statement result here. It's likely that whoever comes out ahead in this match will be favoured to win the title against Croatia.

Spain are missing some key players like Ferran Torres and Pedri, plus Sergio Busquets is no longer in the mix after his international retirement. So there are plenty of question marks for new manager Luis de la Fuente, but La Furia Roja still boasts a supremely talented squad.

Meanwhile, it's been very difficult for Italy boss Roberto Mancini to find a consistent starting lineup over the past few years, and there has been significant turnover in the team as a result. If Italy can keep Spain's attack hemmed in and they can counter effectively, they could potentially enjoy some big moments in this match. But it still feels like the Spanish machine should ultimately have what it takes to prevail in this semifinal clash.

Spain vs Italy best bet

• Pick: Both teams to score — YES
• Odds: -105 (BetMGM)

While Italy managed to secure a 2-0 win over Malta last time out, they conceded goals to England, Austria, and Albania in the three games prior. Spain may be missing Ferran Torres, but they have enough top talent to make up for his absence.

The real question is whether Italy can find the back of the net against the Spain possessional machine, run by in-form maestro Rodri. It's clear the betting market expects the Italians will be blanked by Spain, but don't underestimate relatively unknown frontman Mateo Retegui, who scored in both his first two national team caps back in March. His club form has slowed somewhat through May and June, but he still has 10 goals in 16 appearances for Argentine side Tigre this season.

Don't sleep on this Italy midfield either. Marco Verratti, Jorginho, and Nicolo Barella are all coming off club seasons where they shined at different points. That includes Verratti, whose club side PSG had little to boast about collectively. The trio can challenge physically and pass their way through an opponent, helping to create chances.

Spain vs Italy prop bet

• Pick: Alvaro Morata anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +200 (BetMGM)

Alvaro Morata had a rebound season with Atletico Madrid, scoring his highest single-season tally (13) in Spanish league play since 2016/17, and his ability to perform for the national team remains unquestioned. With Ferran Torres out, Morata is expected to start up front, and he seems to always play a role no matter how life at club level is going.

Morata scored three goals at the World Cup this past winter, and he's also bagged goals in each of his last two games against Italy. With few other true goal scorers in this Spain squad, Morata will surely see most attacks flow his way.

Spain vs Italy prop bet

• Pick: Marco Asensio to score or assist
• Odds: +175 (FanDuel)

Another Spain player who this match suits well is Marco Asensio. Likely to be deployed on the right wing against bombing Italian wing-back Federico Dimarco, Asensio has a real chance to be a key attacking threat for Spain.

Asensio was one of the most unheralded players at Real Madrid in 2022/23, producing 15 goal contributions despite seeing under 1500 minutes of league action. He had his most effective season from a creativity standpoint in five years, producing 5.17 expected assists to go along with his 6.37 expected goals. Since being brought back into the Spain fold last summer, Asensio has provided a goal and four assists in nine caps.

Going up against Dimarco, who is an attacking specialist and, consequently, a poor defender, this could be a real opening for Asensio to create chances and maybe even find the back of the net himself, something he's rarely done for Spain.

Spain vs Italy live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA and in Canada