Real Madrid vs. Man City best bets, odds, lines, picks, and expert predictions for Champions League semifinal second leg

After what can only be described as an all-time UEFA Champions League classic in the first leg, there are heightened expectations in the buildup to the second leg semifinal clash between Real Madrid and Manchester City, the top teams in Spain and England. 

A wild seven-goal thriller with emotions, excitement, and massive momentum swings left Man City with a one-goal advantage heading to the Santiago Bernabeu for the final 90 minutes that will decide the Champions League finalist.

Man City twice led by two goals, and twice saw the advantage cut in half as Real Madrid continued to teeter on the brink of collapse before roaring back to life. Still, the Spanish side is at a clear disadvantage heading into the final 90 minutes at home.

With a spot in the final at the Stade de France on the line, who will stamp their names in Champions League lore?

MORE: Re-live the epic Man City vs. Real Madrid Champions League semifinal 1st leg

Real Madrid vs. Man City betting odds

Odds via DraftKings (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK)

After the wacko first leg, it tracks that the most favored odds aren't for either team to win, but instead for both teams to score. Real Madrid needing to find a way back will surely open up the game much like it did in the first leg.

Still, Man City are the favored side as the team in the lead, and the freshly crowned La Liga champs have their toughest test yet.

Real Madrid vs. Man City prediction

Real Madrid have found a way to stay alive throughout the Champions League knockouts, but it would seem this task is just too great.

Los Blancos are just a goal behind entering the second leg, and they are certainly capable of yet another shocking comeback. But while Man City is by no means an unbeatable opponent, they are not PSG or Chelsea. Real Madrid capitalized on mistakes by those teams to produce memorable moments across the last two rounds, but Pep Guardiola's side plays football at a different level.

Man City knows the challenge ahead, and will be prepared to defend its goal with just as much emphasis as scoring at the other end. Real Madrid may have put itself in a hole one too many times in this competition.

• Moneyline lean: Man City (+105 on DraftKings)
• Against the Spread lean: Man City -0.5 (+105 on DraftKings)
• Scoreline prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Man City

MORE: Real Madrid dreaming of another magical Champions League night

Real Madrid vs. Man City best bets & expert analysis

Real Madrid vs. Man City best bet

While the above suggests Man City will come through with a victory in this highly-anticipated match, it's not quite worth the risk backing Man City from a best bet perspective given the combination of skewed odds in Man City's favor and Real Madrid's come-from-behind history.

Instead, a safer over play has far more value. While it's a lot to expect another absolutely bonkers match like we saw at the Etihad in the first leg, given Man City's likely emphasis on keeping Real Madrid out, an over play of 3 goals should be attainable.

Given how poorly David Alaba, Eder Militao, and Ferland Mendy all played defensively in the first leg, Carlo Ancelotti has some headaches to work out at the back. Alaba may not even be fit for the match given persistent injury problems, and Nacho could be chosen to take the field.

Still, Militao was suspended, and Mendy and Toni Kroos were both rested against Espanyol with this match in mind. Their engines should be revitalized. Over 3.5 goals would be asking a lot of this match, but an over 3 goals maintains a safe hedge while also recognizing what these two teams bring to the table: attacking firepower.

Pick: Asian Totals — Over 3 goals (-120 on DraftKings)

Real Madrid vs. Man City goalscorer prop: Gabriel Jesus

Nobody at the top European clubs is in better goalscoring form than Karim Benzema. Right behind him, though, is Gabriel Jesus.

The Brazilian has scored in four of his last five matches, with seven total goals in that span. It's nothing new for Jesus, who's heavily involved in the attack when he's deployed. In Premier League action, Jesus has registered at least 0.5 expected goals (xG) in four of his last five league matches.

Hold off on this in case Guardiola chooses different personnel up front at the Bernabeu, which is possible since Jesus played the full 90 minutes against Leeds over the weekend while other attackers like Kevin de Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez were rested. But if he's selected, Jesus will be a focal point of the match. His odds are delicious for someone in such good form.

Prop: Gabriel Jesus to score (+210 on DraftKings)

58% - Gabriel Jesus has scored or assisted in 58% of his starts in the Premier League, the fourth-highest rate of any player in the competition's history (min. 10 starts):

62% - Mohamed Salah
61% - Thierry Henry
60% - Sergio Agüero
58% - Gabriel Jesus

Dependable. pic.twitter.com/FzO2vteT5S

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) May 1, 2022

Real Madrid vs. Man City prop kicker: Yellow cards

The first leg had tons of action and emotion, but still only two total yellow cards were handed out by Romanian referee Istvan Kovacs.

That will all change in the second leg.

Selected to officiate the match is Italian referee Daniele Orsato, who averages the most yellow cards per game (5.8) of any official in the Champions League this season with two or more matches assigned. These two teams average nearly two yellow cards per match each, and in a second leg with the final on the line, it could be a testy one.

The mark is a high bar to clear, and if you'd like to be a little more safe, playing Real Madrid over 2.5 bookings is the team mark to take. But given the circumstances, the full game over might be the place to be.

Prop kicker: Over 5.5 total yellow cards (+115 on DraftKings)

Real Madrid vs. Man City prop flier: Kevin de Bruyne goalscorer

Kevin de Bruyne is a goal creation machine of the highest caliber. The Belgian was the best player on the pitch during the first leg classic, scoring a goal and assisting another, causing massive problems for Real Madrid, especially in the first half.

And when De Bruyne plays well, it's usually off the blocks. Since the start of March, De Bruyne has scored in five games between league and European play, and he's been the first goalscorer in all five instances. He got his name on the scoresheet first in games against Man Untied, Burnley, Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, and Real Madrid.

This season in Premier League play, De Bruyne has out-scored his xG total by an enormous 6.74, meaning he's finishing at an all-time level. After being rested against Leeds over the weekend, De Bruyne should have a spring in his step, and he could get off to another great start.

Prop flier: Kevin de Bruyne first goalscorer (+550 on DraftKings)