Nobody would be shocked to hear that a matchup between Newcastle and Liverpool features teams in fourth and ninth in the Premier League table, but it might be surprising to hear which side holds which place.
The Magpies currently occupy the final Champions League position in fourth place, for now able to hold off a sputtering Tottenham who lurk just two points behind. Liverpool, meanwhile, used a derby win over Everton at home to stem a four-match league winless streak, but they still remain sputtering among the mid-table doldrums, in need of consistency and form.
Both sides will be desperate for points in this match, with Newcastle needing every single result to give them a chance as they hunt for a coveted Champions League berth, while Liverpool are seeking points anywhere they can find them to keep hope alive for a European position next season.
Still, each club may also have their minds on another prize as they look ahead to other fixtures, a fact which could impact team selection for this match. Newcastle are set to play in the Carabao Cup final next weekend, while Liverpool have a high-profile clash with Real Madrid in the Champions League to come midweek.
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Newcastle vs Liverpool odds
Newcastle haven't beaten Liverpool in 12 straight games between the two sides, but they find themselves slight favourites here at home as they meet for the second time this season. Still, it's anyone's game according to the oddsmakers, who have both teams with plus odds on the money line.
The betting market expects goals as well, with all game flow selections skewed towards a higher-scoring affair. The earlier match back in August between these two sides cashed the over as Liverpool won 2-1, thanks to a 98th minute winner from Fabio Carvalho.
| BetMGM (USA) | Sports Interaction (Canada) | SkyBet (UK) | Neds (Australia) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | +145 | +145 | 6/4 | 2.50 |
| Draw | +250 | +240 | 5/2 | 3.40 |
| Liverpool win | +175 | +165 | 17/10 | 2.70 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -165 / +115 | -175 / +111 | 4/7, 5/4 | 1.57 / 2.25 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -135 / +100 | -133 / +101 | 8/11, 1/1 | 1.77 / 2.05 |
| Newcastle -0.5 | +130 | +144 | — | — |
| Liverpool +0.5 | -190 | -185 | — | — |
Newcastle vs. Liverpool: Three things to know
Newcastle vs. Liverpool match facts
- Date: Saturday, February 18
- Kickoff Time: 12:30 pm ET / 5:30 pm GMT / 04:30 am AEDT (Sun, Feb. 19)
- Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne, England)
- Official: Anthony Taylor
Newcastle vs Liverpool team news
The biggest concern for Newcastle is the status of their in-form forward Miguel Almiron who should be available after getting spiked in the hand last weekend. Also in doubt is Allan Saint-Maximin who recently picked up a knock, having struggled with injuries throughout his career. Joe Willock is unlikely to play after a hamstring injury, while Bruno Guimaraes is suspended for the second of his three-match ban. A knock for Callum Wilson is a concern, but he's thought likely to play, while Jamal Lascelles has returned to training after his personal absence.
Liverpool have been dealing with injuries all season, and while the forward line finally appears to be healthy, the midfield is now a mess. Young academy product Stefan Bajcetic started in the Merseyside derby last weekend and excelled. He may be called upon again with Thiago now missing for a month due to a hip injury, as Arthur is also not an option with his thigh problem. Luis Diaz is getting closer to his return, but likely needs at least the rest of February to return to match fitness, while Ibrahima Konate is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Virgil van Dijk was fit enough for the bench against Everton, and therefore could be an option to start against Newcastle.
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Newcastle vs Liverpool key stats
- Newcastle have yet to win without Bruno Guimaraes in the lineup, drawing four and losing one, compared to 10 wins, seven draws, and zero losses with the Brazilian midfielder. With Guimaraes on the pitch, Newcastle have scored 1.7 goals per 90 minutes while conceding just 0.4, and without him on the field they score just 0.9 goals per 90 and concede 0.8, a stark contrast in both directions.
- Newcastle are winless in their last 12 against Liverpool, all coming in league play, dating back to a 2-0 victory in December, 2015. They have drawn four and lost eight in that span.
- Mohamed Salah's counter-attack goal against Everton set a new Premier League record for fastest goal scored by one team after the opposition hit the woodwork, coming in just 15 seconds following Everton's James Tarkowski striking the post.
Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction
- Moneyline lean: Liverpool (+175)
- Against the spread lean (handicap): Liverpool +0.5 (-190)
- Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Liverpool
Newcastle have an excellent defensive record this season, but there's reason to believe it's fool's gold, and the Liverpool attack seems to be rounding into form.
The attacking injuries are a lot for Newcastle to overcome, as even if players pass fit to play they may not be 100 percent effective, something which has slowed Allain St. Maximin in the past. The loss of Bruno Guimaraes has been tough to overcome as well, and leaves the Magpies less suited to take advantage of the absences in the Liverpool midfield.
This should be an exciting match for neutrals, and there may be a late winner in this for Liverpool if their forwards can remain on the up.
Newcastle vs Liverpool: Best bets
- Pick: Liverpool over 1.5 goals
- Odds: +130 (BetMGM)
What happens when you get a match between statistically the second-luckiest team against the second-unluckiest team in the Premier League? Probably a regression to the mean.
Liverpool have the second-worst finishing record compared to their expected goals mark, with just 36 goals on 43.34 xG (-7.34 differential), while Newcastle have procured a massive +10.40 differential between goals conceded (13) and expected goals against (23.40).
There's a real-life lesson for both. Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope has been utterly outstanding all season, the second-best goalkeeper in the Premier League from a statistical measure (behind only Fulham's Bernd Leno, who, consequently, has helped the Whites to the largest xGA to goals conceded differential at +12.64). Meanwhile, Liverpool attackers Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez have been poor in front of goal, both currently sporting goalscoring tallies well below where expected.
Still, there's reason to believe that Liverpool's attack is on the upswing. Salah's six shots against Everton are more than he's had since late October, and suggest a tactical switch to get him ripping more efforts on frame, while Nunez was an excellent finisher in Portugal and is due for a goal in a big way. With Cody Gakpo breaking the seal against the Toffees, this Liverpool attack is primed for a big finish to the year.
Newcastle vs Liverpool prop bet
- Pick: Kieran Trippier anytime assist
- Odds: +320 (FanDuel)
Speaking of regression to the mean, nobody in the entire Premier League is due for anything more than Kieran Trippier is due for an assist. Trippier is second in the entire league in expected assists with 6.89 xA, behind only Kevin de Bruyne's bonkers total of 10.36 xA.
Yet Trippier only has four assists to his name, and hasn't had one yet in the 2023 calendar year. Since assisting on Newcastle's third goal in the 3-0 win over Leicester City on Boxing Day, Trippier has served up an outlandish 3.19 xA without cashing in.
The attacking injuries for Newcastle surely hurt Trippier's chances, but it sounds like Miguel Almiron will play, which is the most significant news as he is Newcastle's best finisher. At over 3/1 odds, this is a no-brainer.
Newcastle vs Liverpool live stream, TV channel
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | NBC, Universo | fuboTV, Peacock, Universo NOW |
| Canada | — | fuboTV |
| UK | Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League | Sky GO |
| Australia | — | Optus Sport |
| New Zealand | Sky Sport Premier League | Sky Sport NOW |
| India | — | Hotstar VIP, JioTV |
| Hong Kong | — | Now E, Now Player |
| Malaysia | Astro SuperSport 3 | Astro Go, sooka |
| Singapore | Hub Premier 1 (Ch. 221) | StarHub TV+ |
