Manchester United vs Newcastle prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Carabao Cup final

Manchester United and Newcastle United meet in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, with both clubs hoping to use this silverware as a springboard to bigger and better conquests.

Erik ten Hag has steered Man United back in a positive direction after the club spent years floundering in the wake of Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement. While the Red Devils haven't yet won anything under Ten Hag, there is a palpable sense of promise around recent results and performances.

At Newcastle, the fight for a Champions League place in Premier League play gives hope that they, too, can return to former glory, with the backing of their new Saudi owners and the managerial direction of Eddie Howe. The Magpies have visions of grandeur and their first top-level trophy since winning this very competition in the 1975/76 season.

However, injury and suspension concerns loom large for both teams in this match. Manchester United are sweating the fitness of Marcus Rashford, whose incredible goalscoring form has him amongst the hottest players in Europe. Newcastle, meanwhile, are down to their third-string goalkeeper after starter Nick Pope was red carded against Liverpool, while Martin Dubravka is cup-tied. That means Loris Karius will make his first senior start since 2021, and his first appearance for an English club since the infamous 2018 Champions League final where he notably made multiple key errors.

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Man United vs Newcastle odds

Manchester United are favourites in this match, but not by as much as one might have expected given Newcastle's strength this season as true top four contenders. The injury concern around Marcus Rashford has likely also impacted Man United's odds in this match, as he has carried the club through the past few months with his great form and may not be fully fit for this game.

There's also some questions over how this game will play out on the scoresheet, as interestingly, the under total goals is a slight favourite, yet both teams to score is swung in the 'yes' direction. Newcastle's defensive proficiency is throwing a wrench into the betting market. 

Man United vs Newcastle: Three things to know

Here are the key facts, team news, and standout trends you need to know heading into the Carabao Cup final.

Man United vs Newcastle match facts

• Date: Sunday, February 26
• Kickoff Time: 11:30 am ET / 4:30 pm GMT / 3:30 am AEDT (Mon, Feb. 27)
• Location: Wembley Stadium (London, England)
• Official: David Coote

Man United vs Newcastle team news

Easily the biggest concern for Man United is the fitness of the white-hot Marcus Rashford, who was substituted off late midweek in the Europa League win over Barcelona with a muscle injury. Rashford was seen limping slightly and grimacing as he came off, and Erik ten Hag said he was waiting on a fitness test to determine his availability. Rashford starts the match, but whether he is at full sharpness is another matter. That aside, there are very few issues for United, with Anthony Martial out, along with long-term injuries to Christian Eriksen and Donny van de Beek.

MORE: Latest update on Marcus Rashford's status for Carabao Cup final

Newcastle get a huge boost with the return of Bruno Guimaraes, who has been a noticeable absence from the Toon midfield through the month of February due to suspension. Eddie Howe said that Joe Willock's fitness was "touch and go" and he only makes the bench, but Joelinton is able to start.The biggest issue is at goalkeeper, where Nick Pope is suspended and backup Martin Dubravka is cup-tied, meaning third-string Loris Karius starts.

MORE: What you need to know about Loris Karius potentially starting the League Cup final

Man United vs Newcastle key stats

• Manchester United have not won a trophy since the 2016/17 double under Jose Mourinho. United have not gone six years without winning a single trophy since going six years between FA Cup victories (1977 to 1983).
• Goalkeeper Martin Dubravka, who played for Man United on loan earlier in this competition, could become the first-ever player to watch his team lose an EFL Cup final but still earn a winner's medal should the Red Devils win.
• Since the end of the World Cup break, Marcus Rashford has scored 16 goals in 17 games, scoring once every 80 minutes on average. However, he has appeared in five Cup finals previously and failed to find the back of the net in any of them.

MORE: Can Man United win a quadruple of trophies in 2023?

Man United vs Newcastle prediction

• Moneyline lean: Man United (+120)
• Against the spread lean (handicap): Man United -0.5 (+110)
• Score prediction: Man United 2-1 Newcastle

Manchester United are in great form, and while Marcus Rashford has played a starring role in that success, the Red Devils managed to down Barcelona on Thursday without Rashford's goalscoring contributions, meaning his absence on Sunday would not prove a decisive blow to his side in this game.

Newcastle, however, are missing Nick Pope, whose goalkeeping talents have been absolutely essential to everything the Magpies have achieved this season. Newcastle's xGA to goals conceded differential of 10.56 is second-highest in the league, only behind Fulham's insane 15.35 mark.

Missing Pope, and starting the surely rusty Loris Karius, will be a massive blow to the Magpies in a match where the goalkeeper should play a crucial role. Manchester United will be exposed to the counter, but Newcastle aren't exactly a counter-attacking team and may not be primed to take advantage of that Red Devils' weakness. The favoured team should emerge victorious here.

MORE: How many times have Man United won the Carabao Cup?

Man United vs Newcastle best bet

• Pick: Newcastle United over 4.5 corners
• Odds: +104 (FanDuel)

With Manchester United expected to dominate the match in key areas, this is set up perfectly for Newcastle to rack up corners. At essentially 1/1 odds on over 4.5 corners for the Magpies, which is a low bar to clear, this is far and away the best opening of the match.

Would you believe me if I told you Newcastle have the most corners in the Premier League to date? It's true, as their 159 corners topping the entire English top flight. This is a team built around blasting crosses into the box en masse, and manager Eddie Howe plays for these kind of set-pieces. Additionally, Manchester United actually concede a significant amount of corners to opponents, as their 136 corners conceded is fifth most in the Premier League.

Finally, if the Magpies are chasing the game late, they may go with the all-out attack in the final 10-15 minutes, which would play well for racking up the corner count at the end of the match.

Eyeing an even higher corner total could net a much more profitable return, as the over 5.5 corners for Newcastle sits at over 2/1 odds, and even over 6.5 corners feels reachable at a massive 4/1 return. But for purposes of this best bet, we'll play it safer, still at good value.

Man United vs Newcastle United prop bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

Cup finals are generally cagey affairs in the first half, with seven of the last nine EFL Cup finals featuring one or fewer first-half goals.

The profile of both these teams, meanwhile, fits that narrative. Manchester United lead the Premier League with 11 goals in the final 15 minutes of matches this season, and while Newcastle have actually scored one more first-half goal than second-half tallies (18-17), they still have only bagged 22 percent of their strikes before the half-hour mark, so even they often start slow.

Man United vs Newcastle United flier bet

• Pick: Fabian Schar anytime goalscorer
• Odds: +1600 (BetMGM)

Given Newcastle's aforementioned propensity for set pieces, there may not be a defender in the entire Premier League who is more due for a goal than Fabian Schar. He has yet to score this season, but not for a lack of opportunities, as he's racked up 2.14 xG just on headed chances alone this year in league play.

Meanwhile, Man United can be had on corners, conceding 6.70 xGA on corners this season, and gifting teams nearly 0.10 xGA per shot on efforts directly resulting from corner deliveries. If anyone is primed to take advantage of this matchup weakness, it's Schar.

Man United vs Newcastle live stream, TV channel

Here are the TV outlets and streaming platforms carrying the 2023 Carabao Cup final from Wembley.

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