Pep Guardiola gets another crack at his old nemesis in the Champions League as Man City hosts Real Madrid in the semifinals of this year's European club competition.
The Spaniard has owned his old La Liga rivals throughout history, and coming into this semifinal meeting, Man City enters as the heavy favorites and Guardiola has an eye on the top prize.
Guardiola has faced Real Madrid three times in the Champions League with three different clubs, all coming in the knockout stage, and has emerged victorious in two of them, with losses in both legs in 2014 while in charge of Bayern the only real blemishes. Otherwise, Guardiola has beaten Madrid in four of the other six matches, with draws in the remaining two. He dumped Madrid out of the Champions League semifinals in 2011 with Barcelona en route to winning the title, and he eliminated Los Blancos in the 2020 Round of 16 with Man City as well.
In fact, those two losses with Bayern represent half of Guardiola's defeats to Real Madrid ever across his 19 matches against the club, otherwise losing just a pair of La Liga games, each by a single goal margin.
If Man City harbors hopes of its first-ever Champions League crown, Guardiola must channel his past success against the La Liga giants.
MORE: Champions League semifinal times, TV, results, highlights
Man City vs. Real Madrid betting odds
Odds via DraftKings (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK)
Man City is understandably a favorite at home against a Spanish side with its flaws, but the oddsmakers have this match heavily skewed in favor of the Premier League club on the moneyline and spread.
The bookmakers also expect goals from two of the most prolific attacks in Europe.
| USA (DraftKings) | Canada (Sports Interaction) | UK (SkyBet) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City Win | -190 | -212 | -200 |
| Draw | +360 | +325 | +333 |
| Real Madrid Win | +500 | +432 | +525 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -135 / +115 | -152 / +109 | -150 / +110 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -135 / +105 | -137 / -114 | -138 / +100 |
| Man City -1.5 | +155 | +138 | — |
| Real Madrid +1.5 | -175 | -185 | — |
Picks odds via DraftKings
Man City vs. Real Madrid prediction
While Man City of course should be favorites against a Real Madrid side that's needed a pair of miracle comebacks to even reach this stage, the odds are so heavily skewed in favor of the Premier League club that it's hard not to look the other way.
Real Madrid has plenty of flaws, with the club spotty against teams that sit deep and defend, and also vulnerable on the counter-attack. Still, Karim Benzema is one of the most in-form players in the entire world, and Madrid has a healthy squad with a world class coach.
While I think Man City will win a close game at the Etihad in the first leg to set up an intriguing second leg in Spain, I do think the odds skewed so in favor of Real Madrid give enough value to tip the scales in that direction. We all know what happens when Pep Guardiola overthinks his lineup in a big Champions League game...
Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (+500 on DraftKings)
Against the Spread lean: Real Madrid +1.5 (-175 on DraftKings)
Scoreline prediction: Man City 2-1 Real Madrid
MORE: Which teams are in the 2022-23 Champions League?
Man City vs. Real Madrid best bets & expert analysis
Man City vs. Real Madrid best bet
With the odds so far skewed in favor of Man City, bettors have to look elsewhere to find the best bets with worthwhile value.
This is a tough one, because so far in the Champions League, Man City has mostly faced clubs (Atletico Madrid, Sporting CP, Club Brugge, RB Leipzig) that sit deep and try to counter. That's often what the club faces in the Premier League as well. Atleti, who sat as deep as possible against Man City, held City to just one goal across two legs but forgot they also needed to score.
That's not really what Real Madrid is, but it also...kind of is? We've seen two versions of Madrid this season, one for league play and one for the Champions League. In La Liga, Madrid sees over 60 percent possession per game, but in Europe, the possession tanks to just 53 percent possession, and that drops even further against top-level competition — Madrid held 43 percent possession across the four legs against Chelsea and PSG.
Against Man City, Real Madrid could employ similar tactics, with a less stout defense than Atletico Madrid but a much more vicious counter. The best comp from the pool of teams that Man City has faced, believe it or not, is RB Leipzig. While the German side was battered 6-3 in their first group stage meeting, Leipzig managed a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture at home. How'd they do it?
Dump and chase. Goalkeeper Peter Gulasci's 23 long-balls from deep were completed at over a 50 percent rate. The first goal came directly from a goal-kick, and the second was from a hideous John Stones giveaway. Madrid feasts on opposition mistakes, and the side has a staggering 69 percent long-ball success rate. This is a good matchup for the Spanish side, and while backing them solely to win might be a bit risky, a draw is more than possible.
Pick: Double Chance — Tie or Real Madrid to win, and over 2.5 goals (+390 on DraftKings)
Man City vs. Real Madrid prop: Both teams to score
These two teams score lots of goals, and consequently play very open games.
Real Madrid has seen both teams score in five of its last six matches across all competitions. Man City has been a little more stout defensively, but still all its recent clean sheets came against the likes of Atletico Madrid, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Peterborough, and Everton. City has a habit of conceding goals in games against teams with more threatening attacks.
Man City has faced an attacking side four times this Champions League campaign — PSG twice and RB Leipzig twice, both in the group stage — and conceded in all four games.
Prop kicker: Both teams to score (-130 on Draftkings)
Man City vs. Real Madrid flier: Kevin de Bruyne to assist
If backing Madrid and the over isn't enough of an adrenaline rush, it's time to jump on the back of a player, and that player is Kevin de Bruyne.
In the 2020 Champions League meetings between these two clubs, de Bruyne was sensational in both legs, picking up a goal and an assist in the decisive away leg. Interestingly, he had nearly identical games in both legs statistically, but they came from opposite sides of the field. The Belgian truly can do it all.
He's been the fifth-most creative player in the Premier League this season with 7.41 expected assists (xA), but shockingly has returned just four league assists from those chances. He should see those numbers push towards the mean as the season nears a close.
Prop flier: Kevin de Bruyne to assist (+150 on DraftKings)
