How can Liverpool win the Premier League title? Mapping what the Reds need to beat Man City to the trophy

Kyle Bonn

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How can Liverpool win the Premier League title? Mapping what the Reds need to beat Man City to the trophy image

With Manchester City dropping points against West Ham on May 15 and Liverpool beating Southampton on May 17, the gap is down to just one point at the top of the Premier League table with one final match to be played on the last day of the season on Sunday, May 22.

Liverpool needed to come from behind at Southampton to win 2-1, while Man City saw a late Riyad Mahrez penalty saved by West Ham goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski as that result finished 2-2, allowing the Reds to reduce the deficit to just the single point (90 points to 89).

With the Reds chasing an unprecedented quadruple this season, it seemed like the Premier League crown was the furthest from their reach. That's still the case, but the window is slightly more open now with one match remaining.

Here's what Liverpool need to do to win the Premier League title on the final day: 

  • Liverpool win vs. Wolves AND Man City draw or loss vs. Aston Villa

OR

  • Liverpool draw vs. Wolves AND Man City loss vs. Aston Villa by 7+ goals [Liverpool win title on goal difference tiebreaker]

OR

  • Liverpool draw vs. Wolves AND Man City loss vs. Aston Villa by 6 goals AND Liverpool score 5+ more goals in their draw than Man City [Liverpool win title on goals scored tiebreaker]

If Liverpool and Man City finished tied on points (90 points), goal difference (first tiebreaker) and total goals scored (second tiebreaker), there would be a one-game playoff to decide the title winner. But a Man City loss by at least six goals seems far-fetched.

Bottom line: Liverpool will only be concerned about winning, and it doesn't matter how many goals they score in a victory. At the same time, they will also need former Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard to lead his Aston Villa side to a result at the Etihad against Man City.

It's a tough ask of Gerrard's Villa side: The last time that Man City dropped results in consecutive Premier League matches was December 2020.

MORE: What happens if Man City, Liverpool finish tied?

Premier League table

With one match left in the season, the door is still open in the title race. City is one point clear, but the Reds still harbor hope.

Also, critically, City have a significant lead on goal difference, which would come into play if the two teams finish level on points. 

  Team Points Games
Played		 Goal
Diff.		 Goals Next Match
1. Man City 90 37 +72 96 vs. AVL, May 22
2. Liverpool 89 37 +66 91 vs. WOL, May 22
3. Chelsea 71 37 +42 74 vs. WAT, May 22

Liverpool, Man City remaining fixtures

With just a week left in the season, these are the two matches everyone will be focused on May 22: 

Liverpool remaining fixture

Match Date Home/
Away		 Opponent Time (ET)
38 Sun, May 22 H Wolves 11:00 a.m.

Man City remaining fixture

Match Date Home/
Away		 Opponent Time (ET)
38 Sun, May 22 H Aston Villa 11:00 a.m.

How Liverpool can win the Premier League title

Both Manchester City and Liverpool will be at home on the final day and both will be favorites to get all three points. If that happened, Man City would repeat as champions and earn their fourth title in five seasons.

Liverpool can only win the title in three scenarios, one a little more realistic than the other two. A loss to Wolves, and the title pursuit would be over.

Liverpool win title on points

  • Liverpool win vs. Wolves AND Man City draw or loss vs. Aston Villa 

Liverpool win title on goal difference tiebreaker

  • Liverpool draw vs. Wolves AND Man City loss vs. Aston Villa by 7+ goals [Liverpool win title on goal difference tiebreaker]

Liverpool win title on goals scored tiebreaker

  • Liverpool draw vs. Wolves AND Man City loss vs. Aston Villa by 6 goals AND Liverpool score 5+ more goals in their draw than Man City [Liverpool win title on goals scored tiebreaker]

It's clear the second and third scenarios are highly unlikely.

Could there be a title playoff between Liverpool and Man City?

If the teams finished tied on points (90 points), goal differential at +66 (first tiebreaker) and goals scored (second tiebreaker), there would be a one-game playoff to decide the title winner.

But a high-scoring Liverpool draw of 5-5 or greater, and a Man City loss by six goals seems far-fetched, in which case the Citizens would claim the title based on superior goal difference.

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Premier League winners' medal

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn Photo

Kyle Bonn, is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.