Copa Libertadores final prediction, odds, betting tips, best bets for 2023: Boca Juniors vs Fluminense

A continental club title is on the line Saturday as Argentine giants Boca Juniors travel to the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro to match up against Brazilian club Fluminense in the 2023 Copa Libertadores final.

Neither side has enjoyed recent success at this stage, so someone will collect a highly-coveted piece of silverware to embark on a new era in their history. Boca Juniors, for all their popularity, have not won the Copa Libertadores since 2007, while Fluminense have never before lifted the trophy of this competition.

A number of players with strong European resumes will take part in the match, including Boca Juniors striker Edinson Cavani and Fluminense defender Marcelo, both of whom played in Champions League finals while playing overseas.

With one of the world's most famous trophies up for grabs in one of the most iconic venues across the globe, two clubs from the most dominant South American leagues will meet in a heated contest sure to ignite the football flame.

USA: Click here to bet Boca Juniors vs Fluminense in 2023 Copa Libertadores final

Boca Juniors vs Fluminense match facts

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023
• Kickoff Time: 5 p.m. local (4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT)
• Location: Maracana (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Official: Wilmar Roldan (COL)
• Last meeting: Fluminense 1-1 Boca Juniors (May 23, 2012 | Copa Libertadores QF)

Boca Juniors vs Fluminense prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+230)
• To win the title: Boca Juniors (+145)
• Score prediction: Boca Juniors 1-1 Fluminense

Neither side is in particularly good form heading into this match, but Fluminense are considered favorites thanks to their goalscoring record in the Copa Libertadores. The Brazilian club scored a whopping 12 goals through the six knockout round matches, and will be playing at "home" at the Maracana against a foreign opponent.

Boca Juniors, meanwhile, needed a penalty shootout to advance through each stage of the knockout round, drawing 2-2 with Nacional in the Round of 16, 0-0 with Racing Club in the quarterfinals, and 1-1 with defending champions Palmeiras in the semifinals.

Fluminense, however, have been seemingly sapped of their attacking prowess in recent weeks. While they thrashed Goias 5-3 in late October, and drew 3-3 with Corinthians at home a week prior, they have also been shut out a whopping four times in six matches since progressing past Internacional in the Libertadores semifinal.

Boca also have the biggest difference-maker on the pitch in 19-year-old Valentin Barco, a wide player who can slot in at left-back but will likely be pushed higher up the pitch in a more attacking role. Barco, linked to big European clubs, is producing nearly five shot-creating actions per 90 minutes this season in the Copa Libertadores, capable of conjuring chances both on the dribble and with his passing vision.

With Fluminense's biggest strength so inconsistent of late, Boca Juniors should be good enough for a result to at least progress to penalties, where they've been unbeatable in this competition.

Boca Juniors vs Fluminense best bet

• Pick: Boca Juniors double chance AND under 2.5 goals
• Odds: +138 (BetMGM)

Goals are expected to be at a premium in this match, given it's a continental final and the better attacking side is in poor goal scoring form.

Thus, we'll need to add something to the mix to increase the odds, and backing the better defensive side here is the best way to do so. While Boca Juniors are playing "on the road" at the Maracana where the crowd will surely be pro-Brazilian, they have much more experience and are in (slightly) better form.

Since the Copa Libertadores moved to a one-off final in 2019, two of the four games have gone under the 2.5 goal total, and the other two finished with a 2-1 scoreline, just over the mark. An Argentine club has not beaten a Brazilian opponent in the Copa Libertadores final since Estudiantes topped Cruzeiro in 2009, falling in three straight chances since, but Brazilian clubs are down this year and should have a good chance to buck that trend here.

Boca Juniors vs Fluminense prop bet

• Pick: Boca Juniors to lead anytime — YES
• Odds: +125 (BetMGM)

There are many signs which point towards Boca Juniors getting off to the better start in this game before looking to hold onto their lead.

While the Argentine club finished scoreless in four different knockout stage matches, of the two in which they found goals, they were the first to strike in both. Extend that to the group stage, and they held at least a lead in all but one match in which goals were scored.

What about a goalless draw, you ask? Well, Fluminense have conceded the most shots on target of any Copa Libertadores team in the entire field, and it's not just a product of volume as they reached the final. 43-year-old Fabio has been peppered with 47 efforts on frame, which averages out to nearly four per match, sixth-most of any netminder with at least six appearances in the competition.

Fabio has been solid, conceding 11 goals on 12.8 xGOT, but Sergio Romero has been better, allowing just five goals on 8.2 xGOT. Boca's 0.19 xGOT per shot on target is the lowest in the entire competition's field, indicating that they don't concede good chances, and their goalkeeper has stood up to those they do.

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