Chile vs. Brazil prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

Two South American nations hoping to turn around long-term slumps clash in Santiago as Brazil, sitting a shocking fifth in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying standings, visit Chile.

Brazil have never failed to qualify for a World Cup, doing so in first place every modern qualifying iteration but one, but they have failed to impress across their first eight matches of the 2026 cycle. A three-match losing streak a year ago raised alarm bells, and after a disappointing quarterfinal exit at this past summer's Copa America, qualifying defeat on the road at Paraguay last month deepened concerns further.

With a host of star players injured for this November international window, including goalkeeper Alisson and forward Vinicius Jr, the pressure is on head coach Dorival Junior to get results no matter the adverse conditions.

Chile, meanwhile, are in their own rut of sorts, sitting ninth in the ten-team table, with just one win through their first eight qualifying matches. Head coach Ricardo Gareca has been stuck floundering between two untenable generations of players, trying desperately to transition away from the aging veterans like Alexis Sanchez and Arturo Vidal but finding zero success whatsoever bringing along the younger generation.

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Chile vs. Brazil prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Brazil (-185)
• Score prediction: Chile 0-1 Brazil

While Brazil are completely out of form at the moment and missing a number of key players, they can take solace in the fact that their opponent is in an even deeper slump. This match will take place two days shy of an entire calendar year since Chile won their last competitive match, a 2-0 victory over struggling Peru at home for their only victory in this qualifying cycle.

Since Chile began their downturn from the back-to-back Copa America winning highs, they have been downed by Brazil repeatedly, with the Selecao winning each of the last three meetings by a combined 6-0. There's no reason that should change here, and if it does, it may cost Dorival Junior his job.

MORE: Lineups, expected starting 11 for Chile vs. Brazil qualifying match

As kickoff neared on Thursday evening, there was a major swing in the betting market not on the moneyline, but on the expectation of goals, or lack thereof. The total swung heavily in favor of the under, while both teams to score reached as low as 1/2 on the "no" result.

Chile vs. Brazil match facts

• Date: Thursday, October 10, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT)
• Location: Estadio Nacional (Santiago, Chile)
• Referee: Dario Herrera (ARG)
• Last meeting: Brazil 4-0 Chile (Mar. 24, 2022 | World Cup qualifying)

Chile vs. Brazil best bet

• Pick: Under 2 total goals
• Odds: +135 (DraftKings)

This match between two banged up teams out of form has low-scoring grinder written all over it. While Brazil pummeled Chile 4-0 last time they met two years ago, the visitors don't have nearly the firepower to reach that mark this time around.

Brazil have gone under the 2.5 goal mark in each of their last four games, with one or no goals being scored in each of the last three, while Chile have scored just one goal total in their last five matches dating back to the start of the Copa America.

You can get under 2.5 goals at around 1/2 odds, but playing the lower total provides a noticeably higher payoff while returning a push in the event a second is scored.

Chile vs. Brazil prop bet

• Pick: Raphinha anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +240 (DraftKings)

While taking a goal scorer selection is dangerous in a match with such low-scoring expectations, but there's only one player who has provided a consistent attacking threat for Brazil in his recent international experience.

Barcelona star man Raphinha is one of the few Brazilians in good form for both club and country, with Vinicius Jr. out injured and Rodrygo only providing one goal in his last 11 competitive matches. Raphinha was Brazil's best player at the Copa America, scoring against Colombia and snatching five shots across his other two starts.

With six goals for Barcelona this season, Raphinha has been a consistent threat up front so far this season, and his attacking contributions have also benefitted teammates, leading the Big 5 European leagues in chances created leading to six assists at the club level thus far.