Canada vs Australia prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Women's World Cup 2023 group stage

One of these teams will be shockingly heading home as Canada and Australia meet in a knockout stage decider.

With both nations, each ranked in the upper echelon of global sides worldwide, suffering disappointment at various stages, almost certainly one of them will be eliminated earlier than anticipated.

A draw would be enough to see Canada into the knockout round, as they currently sit on four points in a qualifying position. In all likelihood, Australia need a victory to advance, following their shocking 3-2 defeat to Nigeria in the second round of group action.

There is only one tiny sliver of a possibility that both could make it through, requiring a draw between these two sides plus a Nigeria defeat to Republic of Ireland, which would send the second spot between Nigeria and Australia to tiebreakers. Even then, a number of things could conspire against the co-hosts to see them sent packing.

All eyes in the host nation will be on the fitness of Sam Kerr, who missed the first two matches of the competition with a last-minute injury picked up in training. Her status is considered a game-time decision by head coach Tony Gustavsson, and after they withheld information about her injury until minutes before lineups for the opener were released, it's hard to imagine she'll be magically fit to start.

MORE: Canada vs Australia Live Blog

Canada vs Australia match facts

• Date: Monday, July 31, 2023
• Kickoff Time: 6 a.m. ET / 11 a.m. BST / 8 p.m. AEST
• Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne, Australia)
• Official: Stephanie Frappart (FRA)
• Last meeting: Canada 2-0 Australia (Aug. 3, 2016 | Olympics)

Canada vs Australia prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Canada (+230)
• Score prediction: Canada 1-0 Australia

Neither team has looked particularly impressive through their first two group matches, but it's Canada who have met adversity head on and come out with results. Despite injuries to Janine Beckie and Jessie Fleming, and sometimes failing to pass the eye test, Canada have managed to secure four points. Yet somehow, the Aussies are significant favorites here, which seems to make little sense.

The North American side has leaned on its world-class defense, conceding just a single goal through two matches, which came on a stunner from Katie McCabe who struck a Goal of the Tournament nominee, scoring directly from a corner. Otherwise, they've held it locked down at the back, holding Nigeria to one shot on target and preventing Ireland from having too many clear-cut opportunities.

It's hard to imagine Sam Kerr coming back to start this match, and even if she does, it's likely she's less than fully fit, so the Aussies will find it difficult to break Canada down. 

Canada vs Australia best bet

• Pick: Both teams to score — NO
• Odds: -120 (BetMGM), -120 (Sports Interaction)

The under is worthless in this match, so this is the next best option. It's hard to imagine a massive attacking output from either side, even given the desperation that could be had in this game.

Both sides will be motivated to escape the opening 45 minutes without conceding, and leave the game to be decided after the break. With 45 minutes likely gone by here with few chances, the under would be a solid play.

Canada vs Australia prop bet

• Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
• Odds: +110 (BetMGM)

Australia will be proceeding as if they require victory to advance, knowing it will take a very specific and unlikely set of circumstances to see them through with a draw. Yet that doesn't mean they will hit the gas from the get-go. Instead, the Aussies will know that the second half will provide the desperate crowd with an energy boost, and all they have to do is remain in the match and the hosts will take over.

That could work against them, however. This Canada side may not be excellent in front of goal, far from it, but they do know how to attack with pace. The FIFA match report from their win over Ireland shows that one way Jayde Riviere kept up with Katie McCabe was with sheer speed, hitting a 29.1 km/hr top speed, not far off the game high.

Yet it's Canada's counter-attack that could feast here. Midfielder Jessie Fleming made an insane 324 "high-speed runs" and 69 "sprints" in the match, hitting benchmarks of 19 km/hr and 23 km/hr far and away more than anyone else on the pitch — the next most high-speed runs were the 246 of Ireland's Denise O'Sullivan. Meanwhile, striker Jordyn Huitema also put forth a blistering work rate, also racking up more high-speed runs than anyone on Australia against Nigeria.

So how did Nigeria beat Australia? Pace up front. Strikers Uchenna Kanu and Rasheedat Ajibade made the most sprints of anyone on Nigeria, and they both ended up with goal contributions. It could be Australia's undoing again here, especially as they get more desperate down the stretch.

Canada vs Australia flier bet

• Pick: Halftime/Fulltime — Draw/Canada
• Odds: +560 (Sports Interaction)

This is essentially a combined version of our predictions that Canada will win and the key moment will come in the second half.

With the match likely to proceed in a cagey manner through the first 45 minutes, Australia will be forced to open things up after the break, allowing Canada to make use of its pace, which is one of their most valuable assets.

Canada vs Australia live stream, TV channel

Fans in select regions of the world can stream the Women's World Cup live on FIFA+, including in Japan, Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand.