Brest vs PSG prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Ligue 1 match

Now that PSG are out of the UEFA Champions League, the rest of their 2022/23 season will be exclusively dedicated to the chase of their 11th Ligue 1 title.

Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and the rest of the PSG squad will begin life after their European elimination with a trip to the western tip of France to take on Brest in league action.

PSG were unceremoniously dumped out of the Champions League by Bayern Munich, failing to score in either of the two legs of their Round of 16 series. But things are looking up in league play, where PSG sit eight points clear of Marseille at the summit with 12 matches left to play.

With Neymar out for the season after ankle surgery, it's on Messi and Mbappe to carry the load up front and prove that despite the Champions League flop, they still have the attacking flair to lift PSG to a major trophy.

Brest, meanwhile, sit 15th in the table as they battle to avoid relegation, sitting just a point clear of the drop zone. They topped relegation candidates Strasbourg 1-0 last time out in a critical match, and carrying momentum from that result will be useful as they welcome the league leaders.

LIVE BLOG: Follow all the action from Brest vs. PSG as it happens

Brest vs PSG odds

PSG are obvious favourites in this match, but they sit with just over 1/2 odds, meaning that even against a 15th placed opponent, the betting market still has some doubts over their viability in the aftermath of the Bayern defeat.

The market even thinks Brest can score, and that pushes the over 2.5 total goals to be the significant favourite.

MORE: Where Mbappe, Messi rank among Ligue 1 top scorers

Brest vs PSG: Three things to know

Here are the facts, stats, news, and trends to know before Saturday's match:

Brest vs PSG match facts

• Date: Saturday, March 11
• Kickoff Time: 3 pm ET / 8 pm GMT / 7 am AEDT (Thu, Dec. 15)
• Location: Stade Francis Le Ble (Brest, France)
• Official: Marc Bollengier
• Last meeting: PSG 1-0 Brest (Sept. 10, 2022 | Ligue 1)

Brest vs PSG team news

Brest will be without the suspended Mahdi Camara, who was sent off against Lille in late February. Midfielder Mathias Pereira-Lage is out with an ankle injury, and 20-year-old Karamoko Dembele, who just signed from Celtic this summer and has been a consistent bench option, is sidelined with a similar issue.

PSG are partly in the position they find themselves due to a buildup of injuries, especially at the back. Both Neymar and Presnel Kimpembe are out for the season, while Marquinhos and Nordi Mukiele both picked up injuries in the defeat to Bayern Munich midweek and will miss a number of weeks. Manager Christophe Galtier will be forced to start teenage centre-back El Chadaille Bitshiabu alongside Sergio Ramos and Danilo at the back, given the limited options.

Brest vs PSG key stats

• Brest have suffered defeat in each of their last 12 matches against PSG across all competitions, dating all the way back to a 2-2 draw in league play in 2011. They have been outscored 27-6 in that span, being shut out eight times.
• Eight of Brest's 13 league defeats this year have come by just a single goal, including the reverse fixture against PSG on September 10, when Neymar's 30th minute goal was enough to see the hosts through in the capital.
• With PSG's elimination from the Champions League on Wednesday, only Arsenal (177) have played more UCL matches than PSG's 137 without winning a single title.

Brest vs PSG prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+380)
• Against the spread lean (handicap): Brest +1.5 (-150)
• Score prediction: Brest 1-1 PSG

PSG are as vulnerable as they'll ever be this season. The Parisians looked lackluster in Germany on Wednesday, struggling with injury issues and a lack of intensity. Once they conceded to Bayern and went 2-0 down on aggregate, they never looked like they could mount a comeback.

With Neymar out and the PSG defence thin, the team will be reliant on Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi to produce the kind of display week-in and week-out to carry the team. It's hard to imagine they can do that, especially against a Brest team that held PSG to just four shots on target back in September, when the Parisians were in their best form of the campaign.

Brest vs PSG: best bet

• Pick: Brest double chance
• Odds: +175 (BetMGM)

With PSG only left to focus on the league, the time is now for Brest to strike. Usually, it's not considered ideal to play a top team in the match immediately following a devastating loss. But here, against a PSG side that hasn't shown signs of a reaction, the best time to play them is here.

Eventually, with less fixture congestion and the renewed focus of a title charge, PSG should recover and finish the season strong, especially as their back line gets healthier. However, right now, while the wounds of the Champions League defeat are fresh, there's plenty of reason to think that PSG will carry over the lingering effects of the midweek loss.

Brest vs PSG prop bet

• Pick: Franck Honorat to score or assist a goal
• Odds: +180 (FanDuel)

Brest don't create many chances. In fact, they're third from bottom in Ligue 1 in chance creation, with their 27.75 xG on the season just over one goal more than last-placed Auxerre. As a result, any bets on goalscoring with this team come with significant risk.

Yet one man is tasked more than anyone else with chance creation, and that is right winger Franck Honorat. He will have to check his aggression being on Kylian Mbappe's side of the field, but he could give PSG left-back Nuno Mendes and Danilo trouble by pushing forward, knowing that behind him is right-back Noah Fadiga who sports a sensational 70 percent tackle success rate.

You can parlay Honorat assisting a goal with Brest double chance and push things all the way up to +705, but we'll stick with the safer play knowing there may not be many opportunities for the hosts to find the back of the net.

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