The Bundesliga title fight is absolutely wide open, with five teams realistically in the mix, and two of them meet on Friday as Borussia Dortmund host RB Leipzig in a match expected to be jam packed with action and thrills.
Dortmund sit second in the German top flight, level on points with leaders Bayern Munich but below on goal differential. Union Berlin are three points back in third, and RB Leipzig just a further point behind in fourth, looking over their shoulder at fifth-placed Freiburg just one more point adrift.
BVB are on an absolute tear, winning all nine of their matches since the World Cup break ended, including domestic wins over Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen, plus a Champions League home victory over Chelsea. Leipzig, meanwhile, have won just two of their last five, but managed to secure a home draw with Man City in the Champions League a week ago, and they remain a dangerous side.
In fact, these two clubs have had almost dead-even seasons on the whole, both scoring 45 goals and both conceding 27 in domestic play, while both have reached the Champions League Round of 16 as well.
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Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig match facts
- Date: Friday, March 3
- Kickoff Time: 2:30 p.m. ET / 7:30 p.m. GMT / 6:30 a.m. AEDT
- Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
- Official: Sven Jablonski
- Last meeting: RB Leipzig 3-0 B. Dortmund (Sept. 10, 2022 | Bundesliga)
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Borussia Dortmund (+125)
- Against the spread lean (handicap): Borussia Dortmund -0.5 (+110)
- Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 RB Leipzig
Home-field advantage is nothing between these two sides, as the road team has picked up a result (draw or win) in eight of the last 11 matches between these two teams. They've also played some seriously wacko matches over the last few years, averaging 3.6 goals per game since the start of 2017.
On recent form, Dortmund are by far the better team at the moment, but that largely is thanks to the absence of Liepzig's injured striker Christopher Nkunku, who could be in line to start his first Bundesliga game since November in this fixture.
The difference in this match is the improved defensive form of Dortmund, who have conceded just six goals in seven Bundesliga matches since the return of play in January, half of which came in their first game back against Augsburg. In their last six, they've conceded just twice on 5.8 xG. Nkunku has taken two shots in his three substitute appearances since returning, and clearly has some rust to shake off.
| BetMGM (USA) | Sports Interaction (Canada) | SkyBet (UK) | Neds (Australia) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund win | +125 | +110 | 5/4 | 2.25 |
| Draw | +270 | +273 | 13/5 | 3.45 |
| RB Leipzig win | +195 | +205 | 2/1 | 3.00 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -190 / +130 | -208 / +131 | 1/2, 6/4 | 1.50 / 2.45 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -165 / +120 | -164 / +128 | 4/7, 5/4 | 1.60 / 2.30 |
| Dortmund -0.5 | +110 | +121 | — | — |
| RB Leipzig +0.5 | -160 | -155 | — | — |
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig: Best bet
- Pick: Julian Brandt to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +155 (FanDuel)
For a player in red-hot form like Julian Brandt, this is fantastic value to find himself yet another goal contribution.
Brandt has scored in four straight league games, and while he didn't end up on the scoresheet against Chelsea in European action, he was excellent in that match as well. The 26-year-old German international has locked down the right-wing position and kept the likes of Gio Reyna from seeing time, and his influence will be even more prominent now that Karim Adeyemi has gone down injured.
He'll have plenty of space in behind RB Leipzig left-back Marcel Halstenberg who loves to bomb forward and isn't a good tackler, and while he then will be faced with in-form defender Josko Gvardiol, Brandt should be primed to pull the strings for Dortmund.
🤝 🤝 Julian #Brandt weiß, bei wem er sich zu bedanken hat. 🫡 @sorare
— Borussia Dortmund (@BVB) February 22, 2023
🌟 Solo + Steckpass = 𝐉𝐁𝐆-🅰️ssist. pic.twitter.com/YZ6NnckNkp
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig prop bet
- Pick: Borussia Dortmund over 2.5 cards
- Odds: +200 (FanDuel)
At +120, I thought long and hard about taking the under in this match given Nkunku's rust and Adeyemi's injury, but given the way these two teams play, I just couldn't justify it.
Annoyingly, the yellow card totals are a bit wonky as well. Over 3.5 total cards would be the ideal play, but there's little value at -156. Instead, we'll focus on just Borussia Dortmund, who are adept at racking up cautions this season. Despite having just the second-fewest fouls in the German top flight this year at 216, they have earned the fourth-most cautions at 45.
Referee Sven Jablonski profiles exactly to that type of play. While he is dead last amongst Bundesliga officials in fouls per game at just 19.69, he has dished out the seventh-most cards per game at 3.75, and he's given at least one side over 2.5 cards in five of his last eight games in charge. Emre Can is a great bet to be booked himself at +230.
Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig live stream, TV channel
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | — | ESPN+ |
| Canada | Sportsnet World | Sportsnet |
| UK | — | Sky Sports app |
| Australia | — | beIN Sports Connect, Kayo |
| New Zealand | Sky Sport 7 beIN Sports | beIN Sports Connect |
| India | — | JioTV, Sony LIV |
| Hong Kong | — | — |
| Malaysia | — | — |
| Singapore | — | — |
