Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League first leg

Two European giants somehow will only meet for the first time as Chelsea travel to Germany to take on Bundesliga title hopefuls Borussia Dortmund.

The Blues are in desperate need of a pick-me-up result, going winless in their last three matches and with just a single victory since the turn of the calendar year. Chelsea have improved defensively of late, but it has come at the expense of their attacking firepower, as they look to weather a brutal run of injuries that has decimated the squad.

With a number of players now back in training, the Blues are hopeful of a boost from the injection of talent, but it could take time to reintegrate all the various fit players flooding back in.

Dortmund, meanwhile, are in sensational form, three points away from Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich and on a six-match winning streak across all competitions. They are receiving goal contributions from several players, a true team effort under head coach Edin Terzic, who has a special relationship with Chelsea boss Graham Potter, as the two studied for their coaching badges together.

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Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea odds

These two teams are nearly dead even according to the oddsmakers, who have Borussia Dortmund as just the slight favorite at home in front of the Yellow Wall. Dortmund are in good form as they battle for a title in Germany, while Chelsea are currently a mid-table side in the Premier League.

The betting market thinks that both teams can find the back of the net, but they're far more uncertain on whether this game will feature a bevy of goals. The 2.5 goal total sees identical odds on the over and under.

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea: Three things to know

Here are the key facts, trends and lineup updates ahead of the clash of European heavyweights in Germany. Chelsea have won the Champions League twice (2012, 2021), while Dortmund won it in 1997 and advanced to the final in 2013, losing to German rivals Bayern Munich.

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea match facts

• Date: Wednesday, February 15
• Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. GMT / 7 a.m. AEDT (Thu, Dec. 15)
• Location: Signal-Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
• Official: Jesus Gil

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea team news

Dortmund are healthy for the most part, but do have a few role players missing. Wide man Marius Wolf suffered a shoulder injury last week that rules him out for a month, while Youssoufa Moukoko and Abdoulaye Kamara picked up knocks over the weekend which will see them miss out. Moukoko's injury will see Sebastien Haller start up front, having returned from his bout with testicular cancer. Thomas Meunier has just returned from a muscle injury and it's unclear whether he'll be fit to start, while Mateu Morey has been out for most of the season with a knee injury.

Chelsea are slowly getting healthier as they push through their injury crisis into the second half of the season, but there's still a lot of work to do. Reece James has returned to game action, and a host of players have returned to training, including Christian Pulisic, Wesley Fofana, and Mateo Kovacic. N'Golo Kante and Denis Zakaria are close to returns as well, but have not yet finished their treatment plans, while goalkeeper Edouard Mendy remains sidelined with a broken finger. A return for Raheem Sterling is possible, but he may be better suited for a bench role in his first match back from a knee injury.

MORE: Complete UEFA Champions League Round of 16 fixtures

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea key stats

• Incredibly, Chelsea and Borussia Dortmund have never met in a competitive match previously. Chelsea have played 25 total matches against eight other German clubs in their history, but never against BvB.
• Dortmund's 19-year-old midfield sensation Jude Bellingham has already broken the record for goals by a teenager in a single Champions League campaign with four. He broke Wayne Rooney's mark of three, a record which had stood since Rooney's hat-trick against Fenerbahce in September of 2004.
• Borussia Dortmund have won all seven of their matches since the return to action in January, outscoring opponents 22-7.

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+230)
• Against-the-spread lean (handicap): Borussia Dortmund -0.5 (+140)
• Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Chelsea

Chelsea are still struggling for health, but what's more alarming at this point is their road form, which should come into play here. The Blues have not won on the road in any competition since a 2-1 victory at RB Salzburg in Champions League group stage play. They have suffered four road Premier League defeats since then, plus a loss to Man City in the FA Cup, and were held to away draws in league play at Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, and West Ham.

That bodes for a Dortmund result in this match, although given Chelsea's recent defensive form, it's hard to trust a moneyline selection on the German side at a slightly lower payout. As far as a moneyline play, the draw carries better value, but on the handicap (against the spread), picking the hosts is a better option than Chelsea getting a result.

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea: Best bets

• Pick: Dortmund highest scoring half — 2H
• Odds: +140 (Caesars)

Borussia Dortmund are a threat to score at any point in the match, so it's hard to rule out goals by the home team in the first half. But they should be far more open at home after the break. Spurred on by their fans, Dortmund are usually electric in the second half, scoring 11 of their 17 goals after the break since returning from the World Cup break, including seven of their last nine.

That should also be the perfect time to catch Chelsea, even if the Blues happen to take an early lead. While most teams have at least a slight increase in attacking output after halftime, Chelsea actually profile as a first-half team, who might be clinging on for a result as the match nears a close and Dortmund push for a home win.

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea prop bet

• Pick: Gio Reyna anytime goalscorer
• Odds: +480 (BetMGM)

These are incredible odds for a player who's in sensational form at the moment. Reyna struggled with muscle injuries for the better part of a year before finally establishing himself as fit and part of the Dortmund first team in mid-October. Since returning to regular action against Stuttgart on October 22, Reyna has scored five Bundesliga goals in just 369 minutes of play, or one goal every 74 minutes.

Those five goals have come on just 2.24 xG, showing his great finishing technique, while three of those goals came in substitute appearances, showing an ability to come off the bench and make an impact.

He was less effective in Champions League group stage play earlier this season, but in his current form, Reyna could cause problems for Marc Cucurella or Ben Chilwell on the left side of Chelsea's back line.

Borussia Dortmund vs Chelsea live stream, TV channel

Here's where to watch the Round of 16 first leg in select regions around the world:

Australia: Every match of the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and UEFA Europa Conference League with all the action streaming ad-free, live and on demand on Stan Sport.

Canada: Every Champions League match in Canada can be streamed exclusively on DAZN. 

UK: The UEFA Champions League is carried by BT Sport's TV and streaming platforms.

USA: Fans in the USA can watch the match in English (CBS and Paramount+) and Spanish (TUDN, UniMas, and ViX+).

Since the match is televised on CBS, TUDN, and UniMas, both English- and Spanish-language broadcasts are streamed on fuboTV, which is available on a free trial for new users.