Australia vs England prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for 2023 Women's World Cup semifinal

It seems harsh that one of Australia and England will be relegated to the third place match, as both have been worth their weight in gold so far through the 2023 Women's World Cup.

As the two clash in the semifinals in Sydney, the hype in both nations is palpable. The co-hosts are abuzz with excitement, as all of Australia clings to their beloved Matildas, who have put forth performances which could alter the direction of the sport Down Under.

England too have energized the Lionesses fanbase, but not in the same way. The European giants have not been their selves this tournament, forced to dig deep and procure narrow victories in games they will have been expected to win by larger margins. Yet that should not be seen as a affront to their performances, but rather a nod to their ability to adapt and survive amidst an increasingly competitive women's football environment.

As the two tenacious sides meet, one will escape just one game from lifting the Women's World Cup trophy, while the other will be consigned to a chance to snatch nothing more than a consolation prize. Such are the razor-thin margins of this unforgivingly brilliant sport.

in sydney city centre and everywhere you look there’s a matildas ad or poster or scarf or shirt. nearly everyone i walk past is talking about the matildas. i have never seen this before it’s absolutely insane

— louise🪂🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (@l0ujade) August 14, 2023

MORE: Australia vs England live blog

Australia vs England match facts

• Date: Wednesday, August 16
• Kickoff Time: 6 a.m. ET / 11 a.m. BST / 8 p.m. AEST
• Location: Accor Stadium (Sydney, Australia)
• Official: Tori Penso (USA)
• Last meeting: England 0-2 Australia (April 11, 2023 | Friendly)

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— FIFA Media (@fifamedia) August 14, 2023

Australia vs England prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+220)
• To advance: Australia (+115)
• Score prediction: Australia 1-1 England

If you've followed along with our picks all tournament, you'll have noticed that on more than one occasion we have underestimated Australia. That was on full display in the quarterfinals against France — when it seemed this Matildas side had reached its peak, they dug deeper still and knocked out a global power.

We refuse to be drawn into that trap again. If there was hype and excitement around the start of the tournament, the success in this competition has truly energized the whole of the nation. Everywhere you turn the Matildas are the talk of the town, an unprecedented boost from the home fans.

England have been gritty thus far, but they do not look themselves, especially in the absence of Lauren James who is suspended again for today's game after her straight red card against Nigeria. If Australia can keep the in-form attacking unit of France under wraps (0 goals, 5 shots on target), they can do it against a sputtering England as well. The Matildas are going to the final after another gritty draw.

Australia vs England best bet

• Pick: Scoreless first half
• Odds: +120 (BetMGM)

This selection, officially listed as "first half tie and under 1.5 combined goals," is a thoughtful pick for a number of reasons, and with the overall under providing no value, we have to find a bit more nuanced way of backing a low-scoring affair.

First, a traditionally furious England attack has been poor throughout much of this tournament, shut out against Nigeria and needing a two-goal comeback to beat Colombia. Only China felt the true wrath of England's might to close out group stage play.

Second, Australia's defense has been utterly dominant. They conceded 22 shots to Les Bleus, but only five hit the target, and while they should have scored based on an expected goals (xG) value of 1.95, in truth it was quantity not quality that built that total. The Matildas have not conceded a single goal outside of the three Nigeria scored in their group stage meeting, and they will need another big fight here to keep their tournament hopes alive.

Australia vs England prop bet

• Pick: Corner spread — England -1
• Odds: +162 (FanDuel)

This feels like an absolute slam dunk. Either way this match progresses, England should finish with a fair bit more attacking pressure than Australia, and therefore more set-pieces. Australia do their fair share in this department, but against France they conceded a massive 12 corners, and coughed up 15 to Nigeria in defeat, so England could repeat that performance.

Even in low-scoring games, England work hard to get vertical, which often results in significant dead-ball chances. In both 1-0 wins over Haiti and Denmark in group stage play, England won the corner battle by a solid margin, with seven and nine corners respectively.

Australia vs England live stream, TV channel

Fans in select regions of the world can stream the Women's World Cup live on FIFA+, including in Japan, Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand.