AC Milan vs Napoli prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League quarterfinal 1st leg

An all-Italian showdown is one of the showcase matchups of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals as Napoli travel to the San Siro to take on AC Milan for the first leg.

AC Milan won the preamble in league play by a thumping 4-0 scoreline last week, but Napoli had little to play for in that game having virtually wrapped up the Serie A title for several weeks. Therefore, the Serie A league leaders can wipe the slate clean and bring a refreshed aura to this match.

But Napoli, who have dominated domestically and abroad throughout the season, will be vulnerable due to the absence of injured top scorer Victor Osimhen. The Nigerian has been electric this campaign at the head of their forward line, but he suffered an adductor injury and is likely to miss this game.

Milan, meanwhile, have been inconsistent all season long, as their win over Napoli last week remains their only league victory in five games, held by Empoli to a scoreless draw over the weekend.

The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 51.8% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 35 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 44 of 80 match outcomes via his three-way moneyline leans to date.

LIVE BLOG: Follow along live with highlights & commentary as Napoli and Milan meet in UCL play

AC Milan vs Napoli odds

Napoli are only slight road favourites for this match, having recently been defeated by AC Milan in league play by a heavy 4-0 scoreline. But Napoli have a sizable lead in Serie A and didn't need that game. This should be a very different match given the stakes. Nonetheless, the odds still say that AC Milan has a good chance of winning at home against a team that has largely steamrolled the competition at home and abroad.

The betting market is expecting a tight contest, heavily favouring the under 2.5 total goals, with the absence of Victor Osimhen surely proving a factor alongside Milan's struggles in front of goal.

There's been some late line movement in favour of the hosts, especially with Napoli's lineup utilising a False 9, which is new for Luciano Spaletti. The under has also recently been largely played, leading to it dropping down all the way to -190.

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AC Milan vs Napoli match facts

• Date: Wednesday, April 12
• Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Thu, Apr. 13)
• Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
• Official: Istvan Kovacs (ROM)
• Last meeting: Napoli 0-4 AC Milan (April 18, 2023 | Serie A)

AC Milan vs Napoli team news

AC Milan have very few injury concerns with Brahim Diaz, Rafael Leao, Simon Kjaer, and Olivier Giroud rested over the weekend, but fit to start this game. The only regular starter on the sidelines is likely to be defender Pierre Kalulu who has missed two straight league games with a calf injury, although he did do some light training on Monday and could be a late addition. The return to full fitness of 41-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimovic has proven slow and he is still not training fully with the squad.

For Napoli, the news on Victor Osimhen is not looking positive. The Nigerian striker has not been ruled out, but he trained alone on Monday and it seems he has significant ground to make up if he is to prove fit for this match. He is, however, Napoli's only injury concern, leaving manager Luciano Spalletti an otherwise full squad.

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AC Milan vs Napoli key stats

• AC Milan have won just five of the last 25 matches against Napoli across all competitions, a stretch which dates back to the start of the 2011/12 campaign. They have 12 defeats and eight draws in that time.
• This season, without Victor Osimhen available, Napoli have won eight of nine matches, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
• Of the top 50 players in chances created across the Big Five European leagues, Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has the fourth-highest expected assists per chance created at 0.13 xA/key pass. He is behind only Lionel Messi, Kevin De Bruyne, and Neymar.

AC Milan vs Napoli prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+220)
• Handicap lean: Napoli -0.5 (+145)
• Score prediction: AC Milan 1-1 Napoli

Napoli have shown signs of weakness of late. The league defeat to AC Milan could have been wholly excused had it not come in such emphatic fashion (4-0). Their most recent win over Lecce also came with some defensive deficiencies. Even the 4-0 win over Torino prior to the Milan defeat saw some defensive frailties.

Now, without Osimhen, Napoli have to prove they can still finish their electric attacking moves without him. In particular, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia must show he is capable of pulling the strings without Osimhen drawing so much attention up front. In this first leg on the road, Napoli would likely be happy to go back home with a level scoreline.

Even with the moneyline lean above (draw) and the score prediction (1-1 draw) favouring the draw, Napoli still makes the most sense as the the handicap lean given the odds and the fact that they are the better side on paper and the more consistent club. 

AC Milan vs Napoli betting tips

• Pick: Half with most goals — 2H (second half)
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

Napoli have proven to be a second-half team this season, both in Italian league play and in European action. While their goal differential between halves points to an average split, their chance creation does not.

The scudetto leaders have shot the lights out in the first half en route to 43 goals across all competitions, but those come on just 33.15 xG, whereas their 48 second-half goals are the result of 41.69 xG. Indeed, seven of their last 12 matches across all competitions have featured more second-half goals.

Milan have a similar profile. Their 26 goals before the break have come on 27.55 xG, while after halftime they have bagged 35 goals on 31.34 xG. Given that none of their last five matches have seen more second-half goals, they may be due to return to their natural tendency.

This bet can prove fluky, since goal distributions across a single match can be impacted by several factors, but in these high-intensity games in the later stages of European action, especially against teams that know each other well, a 0-0 halftime scoreline is more than conceivable.

AC Milan vs Napoli prop bet

• Pick: Race to 4 corners — Napoli
• Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

Somehow, under 4.5 corners for Napoli is favoured, and I can't quite seem to figure out why. No, these teams don't rack up corners en masse, but Napoli are an attack-minded side, and their average of 5.54 corners per match across all competitions this season is among the top 20 of all clubs in the top European leagues. They put up 10 corners against Milan in the league match last week despite losing 4-0, so any sense of urgency in this match could see them come out of their shell.

AC Milan don't concede many corners, but Napoli should reach at least four, and they should do it quicker than their opponent who will see far less of the ball. You can get Napoli over 4.5 corners at -110, but with slightly better odds here and a lower bar to clear, they don't have to outrun the bear, just their opponent.

AC Milan vs Napoli live stream, TV channel

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