As the 2023 edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL) inches closer to the playoffs, the drama is amplifying. Every outcome affects not just the teams that are playing, but also teams that are not playing.
This year's IPL is perhaps the most competitive in the tournament's 15-year history considering just how many teams are still in contention for a playoff spot.
Although Gujarat Titans (GT) have already qualified for the playoffs and are guaranteed of a top-of-the-table finish, the other three playoff spots are still there for the taking.
Seven teams are still alive in this competition with just a few more games left to play before the playoffs begin. Only two teams, Delhi Capitals (DC) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH), have been eliminated from the tournament thus far.
Today, SRH take on Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), the only two teams that are yet to play their 13th game. Although this game's result is inconsequential for the former, a lot hinges of this game for the latter, and also for the other teams that could still make it to the playoffs.
So, why is SRH vs RCB so significant in the larger scheme of things? TSN breaks it down for you.
MORE: Bet on SRH vs RCB here
CSK and LSG will benefit from an SRH win
RCB currently sit in fifth position in the IPL standings, having bagged 12 points (six wins) from as many games. A positive net run rate (NRR) of 0.166 works to their advantage as it might give them the edge over other teams if they are level on points at the end of the league phase.
Even though RCB can mathematically qualify for the playoffs if they win one and lose one, they know that winning both the games will put them in a better position to qualify since they'll finish the league with 16 points and could even finish in second place.
However, if they do lose tonight, it would result in two playoff spots being sealed.
Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG), who find themselves in second and third positions respectively, are level on 15 points.
If SRH win today, RCB would remain at 12 points with just one game to go. They can only reach to 14 points if they win their last game.
Three other teams - Rajasthan Royals (RR), Punjab Kings (PBKS), and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) - are tied on points with RCB with 12 points to their name. If RCB lose tonight, then those four teams (RCB, RR, PBKS, KKR) will be tied on 12 points from 13 games, which means that they can end the league phase with a maximum of 14 points.
Given that CSK and LSG already have 15 points, they are already set to finish with more points than the four aforementioned teams, regardless of their result in their 14th and last match of the league phase (against DC and KKR respectively).
Hence, they'll qualify for the playoffs, irrespective of the outcomes of the rest of the games.
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Why RCB cannot afford to lose against SRH
We have already established that if RCB lose tonight, CSK and LSG will join GT as the second and third teams to qualify for the playoffs.
RCB will then have to enter a NRR battle with RR, PBKS, and KKR as these teams can finish on 14 points.
That leaves just one other team that is in the reckoning for a playoff spot - Mumbai Indians (MI).
The five-time IPL champions have 14 points from 13 games and their win against SRH on Sunday, May 21, will close the doors for RCB, RR, PBKS, and KKR as they will end the league phase with 16 points.
With RR set to play PBKS on May 19, one more team will be eliminated at the end of the match.
Given that MI are already on 14 points with one game to play, it is imperative for RCB to win tonight in order to have a better chance of qualifying to the playoffs.
If MI win against SRH and RCB win both the games, both MI and RCB will finish on 16 points. Then, RCB will only have to worry about having a superior NRR than MI (which they already do).
There's also a chance that both CSK and LSG lose their final games, which will see them finish the league phase with 15 points, one point less than RCB should they win both the games.
On the flip side, though, if MI lose their final game, they will also be tied on points with RCB and possibly two other teams (RR/PBKS and KKR). Given MI already have a worse NRR than RCB, they are likely to finish below RCB in the table.
With the battle for the playoff spots intensifying, every game is a do-or-die game from here on.
IPL 2023 standings
| Pos | Grp | Team | Pld | PTS | W | L | NR | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B | Gujarat Titans | 13 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0.835 |
| 2 | B | Chennai Super Kings | 13 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0.381 |
| 3 | A | Lucknow Super Giants | 13 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0.304 |
| 4 | B | Mumbai Indians | 13 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 0 | -0.128 |
| 5 | B | Royal Challengers Bangalore | 12 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.166 |
| 6 | A | Rajasthan Royals | 12 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0.140 |
| 7 | A | Kolkata Knight Riders | 13 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 0 | -0.256 |
| 8 | A | Punjab Kings | 13 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 0 | -0.308 |
| 9 | A | Delhi Capitals | 13 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 0 | -0.572 |
| 10 | B | Sunrisers Hyderabad | 12 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | -0.686 |
