If you want to show someone just how unpredictable cricket, or sports in general, can be, tell them about the extravaganza that is the Indian Premier League (IPL).
Nothing is set in stone in this cash-rich league. The history doesn't count. The star-studded lineups don't count. And being at the top of the table at the halfway stage certainly doesn't count, either.
One can say that the reset button is hit for every team ahead of a new IPL season, regardless of how the team performed the previous year or how well they did or did not do in the auctions.
However, such is the competitiveness and unpredictability of the world's best T20 league that the difference between the position of the team in the IPL standings before and after the game fluctuates as easily as the prices of stocks in the Indian stock market.
You could be at the top of the table one day, and one loss could see you trickle down right outside the playoff spots. And you need to look no further than IPL 2023 to see this pattern unless, of course, you are Gujarat Titans (GT) supporter.
Anyway, the team that we'll be talking about today is none other than Rajasthan Royals (RR), whose fortunes this season have swung like a pendulum.
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RR: Picking up from where they left off in IPL 2022
Although RR could not defeat GT in the IPL 2022 final, we can look at their 2022 season as a successful one.
For a team that had not only failed to qualify for the playoffs in 2019, 2020, and 2021, but also finished in the bottom two in each of these three seasons, making it to the final in 2022 was a big step towards laying the foundation for winning their first IPL title since 2008.
They have been extremely smart in the auctions, investing in exciting youngsters such as Yashasvi Jaiswal and Dhruv Jurel, while also purchasing proven performers in both international cricket and IPL - Ravichandran Ashwin, Yuzvendra Chahal, Trent Boult, Shimron Hetmyer. All match-winners in their own right.
This year, they had a bright start and looked set for a second consecutive appearance in the playoffs; RR have never made it to the playoffs two seasons in a row.
They were at the top of the standings after five games, winning four and losing one. With nine games to go, and looking at the current state of the table, they would've made it to playoffs even if they had won four games.
Openers Jos Buttler and Yashasvi Jaiswal were in fiery form, while skipper Sanju Samson, Shimron Hetmyer, and debutant Dhruv Jurel made crucial contributions in the middle order.
The bowling unit comprising of Ashwin, Boult, Chahal, and Sandeep Sharma looked extremely potent with the ball.
Buttler and Jaiswal were among the candidates to win the Orange Cap, while Chahal was enjoying one of his best seasons in IPL with his leg-spin wizardry.
RR's fall: Just two wins from their last eight games
For all their might in the opening phase of IPL 2023, RR managed just to win just one game out of their next six, which put their chances of making it to the playoffs in jeopardy.
It all started with their 10-run loss against Lucknow Super Giants (LSG). Chasing a modest but tricky total of 155, RR needed 51 runs from five overs with seven wickets in hand. Given their muscle in the middle order, one would have expected the Men in Pink to win the game. However, LSG bowlers tightened the screws at the death and allowed RR to scored just 40 runs in their last five overs.
In their next game against Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB), they succumbed to another defeat while batting second. Chasing a target of 189, RR were cruising at 97-1 after 11 overs. However, they lost the plot in the middle overs and were reduced to 129-4 after 16 overs. A late Dhruv Jurel onslaught was not enough as RCB won the game by seven runs.
Although they won against Chennai Super Kings (CSK) to end their two-game winless streak, it was their losses against Mumbai Indians (MI) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) that totally demoralised them.
RR took on MI at the Wankhede Stadium, a ground where a score in excess of 200 was not chased in the IPL. Until Tim David caught the RR bowlers off guard. Chasing 213, MI needed 32 runs from 12 balls and had lost four wickets. David, who was on 15 off 7 balls, finished the game with a score of 45 from just 14 balls, setting a lot of records. David scored five 6s, three off those coming on the first three balls of the final over.
The loss against SRH must have hurt them even more. If MI chased down 213, SRH managed to do one better over MI and chased down 215, clinching a nail-biting win on the final ball of the innings. The. Final. Ball.
RR had to defend 41 runs in the last two overs, with two new batsmen at the crease. The game was surely RR's to lose. But Glenn Phillips and Abdul Samad had other plans and were in Super Saiyan mode for SRH.
Phillips smashed Kuldip Yadav for 22 runs off four deliveries before being dismissed. But he had already done a lot of damage. SRH needed 17 off the final six balls and Samson handed the responsibility of defending it to Sandeep Sharma.
With five runs needed off the final ball, Sandeep bowled cleverly as Samad holed it out straight to the man at long-off. RR thought they won the game, until the third umpire asked the on-field umpire to signal a no-ball. Sandeep had overstepped and given SRH another lifeline. Samad gracefully accepted the gift and smashed the next ball for a maximum to hand RR a gut-wrenching defeat.
If the losses to MI and SRH made RR bleed, their defeats to GT and RCB crushed their soul and forced them into submission.
Two batting collapses - 118 all out against GT and 59 all out against RCB, the latter being the third-lowest IPL total ever - not only exposed some major chinks in their armour, but also affected their net run rate (NRR) significantly.
GT cruised to a nine-wicket win with 37 balls to spare, while RCB handed RR a battering in their 112-run loss. However, thanks to their early-season burst, RR still have a positive NRR (0.140).
Although RR beat KKR by nine wickets, they certainly look like a side that's low on confidence.
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Can RR make it to the playoffs?
Their final game is against Punjab Kings (PBKS), who have played as many games (13) and have collected as many points (12).
A loss will draw curtains on their IPL campaign, while a win would keep them afloat, although a lot of other results will have to go their way.
Four teams might end the league stage of the IPL 2023 with 14 points, with the side with the best run rate moving on to the playoffs. In order for that scenario to occur, RCB and MI must lose their final game.
RCB have the best NRR out of RCB, MI, RR, and KKR at the moment (0.180). MI have a NRR of -0.128, while KKR have an even worse NRR of -0.256.
If RCB lose their last game and RR win their final game, RR could have a chance of bettering RCB's NRR. That is, of course, only possible should MI lose their final game. Whether KKR lose or win wouldn't matter much to RR, but if KKR do manage to win by a big enough margin, they could have an outside chance.
RR need a lot of things to go their way, but first they need to ensure that they take care of business against PBKS and perhaps win by a big margin to boost their NRR even more.
