Mauricio Lara vs Leigh Wood 2 predictions, odds, bets, expert picks for 2023 boxing fight

Tom Gray

Mauricio Lara vs Leigh Wood 2 predictions, odds, bets, expert picks for 2023 boxing fight image

The fact that Mauricio Lara has failed to make weight for his maiden WBA featherweight title defence against Leigh Wood in Manchester on Saturday has to be considered when checking pre-fight odds or analysing the fight.

The Mexican star has been officially stripped of his championship and the title is on the line for Wood only.

Lara, who is huge for the weight and an authentic knockout artist, was almost four pounds over the limit at 129.6 pounds and will rehydrate significantly between now and the opening bell. Given the fact that Lara already owns a seventh-round stoppage win over Wood, what are the chances of Wood overcoming a bigger version of the same opponent?

Not so fast.

For Wood, the first fight was initially like Christmas. He was making a defence of the WBA featherweight crown in his home city of Nottingham. He was making Mauricio Lara, one of the most feared punchers in world boxing, look ordinary. He was winning round after round.

Bang!

In Round 7, Lara timed an explosive and ridiculously short left hook to the jaw that floored Wood heavily. The 34-year-old Englishman did extremely well to find his feet, but trainer Ben Davison felt his man was in danger of being seriously hurt and threw in the towel.

"The kind of success I was having, I started holding my feet and nailing him a bit more because I could see that he was breathing [hard]," Wood told Matchroom Boxing when asked about the fateful ending. "We swapped shots and that was my mistake.

"I remember getting up, and I probably got up a little too fast. I remember thinking, 'How long have I been out?' It’s just a fraction of a second, like a little switch, but because it’s off and on, you don’t know how long you’ve been out for."

WATCH: Lara vs. Wood 2, exclusively live on DAZN

Among Davison’s considerations when he surrendered his man was that there was a rematch clause in the contract. That was quickly executed by Wood, who will take on the Mexican knockout artist again, this time at the Manchester Arena on May 27.

But the new champion predicts that it will be more of the same.

"Everyone thinks it was a lucky shot but it wasn’t. We’d worked on it every day in training camp," offered Lara.

"[Winning the title] felt like a bucket of cold water had been thrown over me… that my dream had come true. On May 27, I’m going to prove that it wasn’t a lucky shot."

The Sporting News now reviews the odds and offers a big-fight prediction on this rematch:

Mauricio Lara vs. Leigh Wood 2 betting odds

Per BetMGM, Mauricio Lara is the -250 favourite, while Leigh Wood is the +220 underdog. 

Mauricio Lara vs. Leigh Wood 2 betting trends

  • Lara via KO/TKO: -175
  • Lara via decision: +700
  • Wood via KO/TKO: +600
  • Wood via decision: +400
  • Draw: +1600

MORE: All you need to know about Mauricio Lara vs. Leigh Wood 2

Mauricio Lara vs. Leigh Wood 2 prediction, best bets 

Lara has already beaten Wood, so the natural reaction is to bet on a bigger version of him doing the same job and perhaps quicker.

However, the odds for a Lara stoppage aren't particularly enticing at -175. And we must consider that Lara will be very disenchanted at losing the world championship he's worked his whole life to win.

Will that affect him mentally?

Analysing the style confrontation is like déjà vu.

Based on the action in fight one, we know unequivocally that Wood is the better boxer of the two. His technical skills are vastly superior, but Lara is capable of cancelling out any arrears with one dynamite punch.

We knew that last time and we know it this time.

As Wood himself said, he held his feet when it wasn’t in his best interest. Essentially, the Nottingham man was punished for being too brave and the same thing will happen again unless he makes adjustments.

During the first fight, Wood often moved back in a straight line after releasing punches instead of drifting off at angles. He must keep Lara guessing in this fight and use his footwork continuously. That will frustrate the Mexican star and leave him more open.

Given how the first fight was going, the odds are pretty good for a decision win. Wood is a better boxer, he has a great engine, and despite not fighting out of his home city, we're still fighting on English soil.

Wood on points is a good bet.

Sporting News prediction: Leigh Wood by decision (+400)

Tom Gray

Tom Gray Photo

Tom Gray joined The Sporting News in 2022 after over a decade at Ring Magazine where he served as managing editor. Tom retains his position on The Ring ratings panel and is a full member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.