It’s been a long grind of a PGA season, but we’re into the home stretch with the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the Northern Trust. This year’s edition of the Northern Trust heads to New Jersey and Ridgewood Country Club, which is a classic A.W. Tillinghast design that checks in as a 7,400 yard, Par-71 layout.
While 7,400 yards is fairly long for a Par-71 layout, the length is somewhat deceiving because the three Par 5's are all incredibly long, and only reachable in two shots by the longest of the long hitters. In fact, Ridgewood plays much more as a less-than-driver layout where positioning off the tee will a popular strategy for the majority of the field this week. Tree-lined fairways and thick rough await players who get loose off the tee, so this is very much a "put the ball in the fairway and figure out your approaches from there" style of course.
Watch Rounds 1 and 2 of the Northern Trust on DAZN
The greens at Ridgewood are some of the smallest we will see all season long and the “fairway first” nature of the course will lead to players having more mid to long iron approaches than they typically would on a week to week basis. The last time the Northern Trust was played here, we saw a much higher percentage of missed greens for the entire field and really put a premium on a good short game and guys who could scramble for pars.
Since we don’t have much course history to go on this week, I’m looking at other courses were players go less-than-driver off the tee, have fast bentgrass greens, and whose greens are below the tour average in size. These include PGA National (Honda Classic), Murifield Village (the Memorial), and TPC River Highlands (The Travelers Championship).
With only 120 golfers in the field this week, we will see a much higher percentage of the field make it through the cut, so this is a perfect time to go a little heavier on your GPP exposure and maybe tone down the cash games, especially given the massive tournaments that can be found over on DraftKings as the season comes to a close.
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Key Stats
Par 4 Scoring
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Birdie or Better Percentage
Northern Trust picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
Top-Tier Targets
Jason Day ($10,700)
A course that puts a premium on short game and scrambling... Hello Jason Day! Day has seen a nice price bump this week and checks in as the third most expensive player in the field, but you shouldn’t mind paying a premium for Day and his skill set at this layout. The price bump may actually make him a nice play in GPPs, as long as his hype doesn’t build too much throughout the week. Day has been excellent in his three appearances at this course with finishes of T-31 in 2008, T-5 in 2010, and T-2 in 2014.
Tiger Woods ($10,100)
I’m still riding the high from Tiger’s epic final round at the PGA Championship, and he should be licking his chops heading to a course where he will be able to club down off the tee and use his elite iron play to his advantage. Tiger has been simply incredible this season with his approach game and he remains one of the best in the world around the green. He flew under the radar last time out at Bellerive but expect Tiger to be one of the most popular plays in the entire field this week, if not the most popular.
Others to Consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Webb Simpson
Mid-Tier Targets
Zach Johnson ($8,700)
If you do decide to play cash games this week, how do you not lock and load Zach Johnson in that lineup? Johnson has been a cash game warrior all year long and enters this week having posted six straight top-20 finishes. Add to the fact that he has finished within the top-25 at this course in 2010 and in 2014, and you have as close to a top-25 lock as there is in the field this week. I don’t mind a full fade in tournaments due to a likely lack of elite winning upside, but the floor is tough to pass up on in cash game formats.
Louis Oosthuizen ($7,700)
While Johnson is a cash game lock, Oosthuizen is a guy I’m taking a long hard look at for GPPs. He burned us badly by withdrawing before the first round at the PGA Championship, but we need short memories in DFS. I have no problem going right back to Oosthuizen and his aching back at a layout that puts a premium on the short game, as Oosthuizen ranks fifth on tour in SG: Around the Green. Expect ownership around 5 percent as long as we don’t get another pre-tournament withdraw.
Others to Consider: Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Alex Noren
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Value Targets
Kevin Kisner ($7,300)
It was a rough start to the season for Kisner, but he has really turned his season around since The Open Championship. His ball striking looks much better and has been riding a red-hot putter for the better part of the last month. Kisner has solid history on bentgrass surfaces and his game is always a better fit on courses where he won’t be put at a disadvantage because of his lack of elite length off the tee.
Kyle Stanley ($7,300)
Stanley is a one of my favorite golfers to target at less-than-driver layouts and he just showed out a few weeks ago at Firestone CC, which is another straightforward, bentgrass layout. He was disappointing last time out at the PGA Championship, but that was a much more difficult layout for Stanley’s game that what he’ll see this week at Ridgewood.
Others to Consider: Keegan Bradley, Anirban Lahiri, Joel Dahmen