The FedEx Cup Playoffs roll on to its traditional second leg this week with the Dell-Technologies Championship, held at TPC Boston. This is one of the easier events of the season to cap, in terms of what it’s going to take to contend. TPC Boston is an absolute scoring fest with the winning score likely to be below 20-under par, so we are locking and loading guys who can rack up birdies in bunches and have high birdie-or-better rates.
Length and strokes gained off-the-tee are extremely important around TPC Boston, as the fairways are wide and the long hitters will be left with short irons and wedges into the majority of the greens. However, there are plenty of problems should players waiver off the fairway, with thick rough and plenty of water hazards lurking. Don’t get me wrong, shorter hitters can contend at this event, but with five Par-4s measuring over 460 yards, and three Par-3s over 205 yards, the big hitters will have a significant advantage.
While I usually don’t want to put much stock into Par-5 scoring on a Par-71 layout, TPC Boston is the rare exception. All three Par-5s this week are reachable in two shots for the majority of the field and the winner this week will likely capitalize early and often on these excellent scoring opportunities.
It’s also notable that the greens this week are bentgrass and typically play as some of the fastest greens that we see all season. This gives a boost to guys such as Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, who tend to put their best on speedy greens.
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Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Par-5 Scoring
Birdie-or-Better Percentage
Ball Striking
Dell-Technologies Championship picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
Top-Tier Targets
Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
With only 98 players in the field this week, it’s a great time to get a little wild with your lineups and load up on GPP pivots at the top end. Guys such as Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Brooks Koepka will all likely be popular but given the ownership, I’ll be loading up on Rory McIlroy, who is a two-time champion of this event. TPC Boston is an ideal layout for a guy like McIlroy who bombs it off the tee, and who loves the fast bentgrass greens that he’ll see this week. A missed cut at this event last season combined with a mediocre T-50 showing last time out at the PGA Championship will likely see Rory’s ownership fall somewhere around 10 percent. Given the course fit, it is too good to pass up.
Jon Rahm ($9,100)
Speaking of low-owned pivots at the top, if you decide to go with a chalky option such as DJ or Justin Thomas, consider pairing them with Jon Rahm who can reasonably be projected for sub-10 percent ownership coming off a horrendous showing last week at The Northern Trust. On paper, Rahm is an excellent fit for TPC Boston with his length off the tee, excellent performance on Par-5s, and elite birdie-or-better rate. He ranks third in the field in both birdie-or-better percentage and birdies per round this season. He also posted a T-4 finish at this event last season.
Others to Consider: Justin Thomas, Tiger Woods
Mid-Tier Targets
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,900)
It’s been an extremely frustrating year for Matsuyama and his backers (hint: me). However, the elite ball striking ability looks to have finally returned for Matsuyama and this week sets up really well for him at a course that rewards an excellent tee-to-green game. At his best, Matsuyama can rack up the birdies with the best in the world and he has seen some of his best performances over the past few years on fast bentgrass greens. Keeping with the theme of this week, he will likely be a lower-owned option with just as much upside as popular plays in the range such as Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau.
Patrick Reed ($8,400)
You wouldn’t think Reed would be a great course fit for TPC Boston, but his course history at this event tells a different story. Finishes of T-6, T-5, and T-4 here the last three seasons are impossible to ignore and make Reed a top cash game option in the mid-range. He checks in the top-20 in the field in both birdie-or-better percentage and birdies per round rate.
Others to Consider: Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton
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Value Targets
Stewart Cink ($7,100)
Cink was a popular value option last week, but a first round implosion saw him not even sniff making the cut. However, it may not be time to jump off the Cink train just yet, as he showed some guts in the second round last week and posted a solid 4-under. Cink is still fairly long off the tee despite his age, and he has a decent track record at TPC Boston. He is viable in all formats if you decide to go for a “stars and scrubs” roster construction this week.
Kevin Tway ($6,600)
The bottom end of the field this week is a pretty scary place to dip into but with the small field, you shouldn’t be a afraid to take some shots in the sub-$7,000 range in order to load up on the studs up top. Bomber Kevin Tway is one guy to consider as his game is a nice fit for TPC Boston. He comes into this week is solid form, having made seven straight cuts, and he has posted an excellent plus/minus of plus-14.9 since the start of last season.
Others to Consider: Luke List, Ryan Palmer