Featherweights collide when the UFC heads to the APEX Center for UFC Vegas 92 on May 18. Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy will compete in the main event.
A Muay Thai specialist, Barboza turned pro in 2009. The Brazilian joined the UFC in 2010, is 18-11 in the octagon, and is on a two-fight win streak. He ranks eleventh in the rankings and is tied for the most Fight of the Night bonuses (nine) in UFC history.
The unranked Murphy turned pro in 2016. The Manchester-born fighter joined the UFC in 2019 and is 5-0-1 in the octagon.
Which fighter will show they can be a threat in a stacked featherweight division? Can we expect any upsets from this fight or the rest of the main card?
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With the help of Sports Interaction, the Sporting News makes predictions on the entire main card at UFC Vegas 92: Barboza vs. Murphy.
UFC Vegas 92 expert picks and predictions
Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy; Featherweights
Per Sports Interaction, Lerone Murphy is the -145 favorite, while Edson Barboza is the +120 underdog.
Murphy is on a five-fight win streak, landing 3.65 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. "The Miracle" has a strike accuracy mark of 50% and a takedown accuracy mark of 46%.
The 32-year-old Englishman faces the 38-year-old Barboza, 2-2 in his last four fights. A veteran of the octagon since 2010, Barboza lands 4.18 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.48 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Barboza still has what it takes, but Murphy is the faster fighter here. The latter can adapt and use the clinch and takedown to his advantage. And if in trouble, he is athletic enough to work through it. It can be a plodding affair that can end with someone going down on the mat, or one can tire the other out. Lean towards the latter, with Murphy coming out on top.
Sporting News prediction: Murphy via unanimous decision
Kalinn “Khaos” Williams vs. Carlston Harris; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Kalinn Williams is the -135 favorite, while Carlston Harris is the +110 underdog.
Williams proved he's an offensive machine in his last fight, landing 130 significant strikes against Rolando Bedoya. "The Ox Fighter" is 5-2 in the UFC and lands 5.77 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 5.33 significant strikes. Harris is 4-1 in the octagon and lands 2.93 significant strikes per minute. He averages 2.05 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, winning six fights via submission.
Activity is important. Williams has only fought twice between 2022 and 2023, while Harris fought twice in 2023. Harris is a far better grappler than him, though Harris lacks in the striking department. “Khaos'" 80% takedown defense is enticing against Harris, who hasn’t connected on all takedowns landed (29%). A tale of two fighters, Williams’ brutality may come out on top.
Sporting News prediction: Williams via KO (round three)
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Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Themba Gorimbo is the -140 favorite, while Ramiz Brahimaj is the +115 underdog.
Gorimbo is 3-1 in his last three fights and has 12 wins, with six via submission overall. “The Answer” lands 2.30 significant strikes per minute and averages 3.39 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Brahimaj is 2-2 in his last four fights, needing no significant strikes to submit Michael Gillmore. He lands 2.47 significant strikes and averages 1.90 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Gorimbo’s attack plan appears complete compared to his opponent, and the ability to attack from the feet and the floor doesn’t hurt his cause. There may be an opportunity for Gorimbo to reverse a ground attack to one of his own. It can be a tight matchup, but take Gorimbo.
Sporting News prediction: Gorimbo via submission (round two)
Adrian Yanez vs. Vinicius Salvador; Bantamweights
Per Sports Interaction, Adrian Yanez is the -375 favorite, while Vinicius Salvador is the +280 underdog.
Yanez is riding a two-fight losing streak where he has been outstruck by ten significant strikes, leading to two knockout losses. When he connects, he's effective, as he lands 6.15 significant strikes per minute. The highest output from the 30-year-old was 100 significant strikes against Davey Grant.
Salvador is also on a two-fight losing streak, getting outstruck 171-135 in the process. He lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute, winning 13 fights via knockout. The Dana White’s Contender Series alum is also vulnerable to the takedown game, getting dropped three times against Victor Altamirano.
Despite his knockout power, Yanez’s output may be too much for Salvador to handle. An issue with Yanez is he absorbs 5.73 significant strikes per minute. Both look to provide damage and only one can manage the pain. Yanez may be out of luck soon, but not in this fight. It has the potential to be, as Jim Ross says, a slobber knocker.
Sporting News prediction: Yanez via TKO (round two)
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Luana Pinheiro vs. Angela Hill; Strawweights
Per Sports Interaction, Angela Hill is the -140 favorite, while Luana Pinheiro is the +115 underdog.
Hill has fought twelve times since the start of 2020, earning the mark of most fight time (5:33:33) in UFC women's history. She lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% strike accuracy mark. On the floor, “Overkill” averages 0.73 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing five against Denise Gomes in November.
Pinheiro lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.36 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. A win against Michelle Waterson-Gomez showcased her resilience. However, a loss against Amanda Ribas, who landed 87 significant strikes, showed holes in her game.
Pinheiro could be in trouble if Hill makes this a striking contest. Tiring out the Brazilian may be Hill’s best bet.
Sporting News prediction: Hill via unanimous decision
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