After top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz took down sixth-seeded Holger Rune in the last quarterfinal match of the men's draw, the final four of this year's Wimbledon Championships was set.
Three of the tournament's top four seeds (Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev) played to the level of their high seeding, winning five straight matches en route to the semis. The top three are joined by eighth-seeded Jannik Sinner, who's played strong tennis the past two weeks. Sinner's advanced to his first grand slam semifinal appearance, taking advantage of his side of the bracket after fourth-seeded Casper Rudd got bounced in the second round.
With both matches having five-set potential, are Djokovic (-610) and Alcaraz (-265) overvalued at their current prices? Can both favorites take care of business, setting up an Alcaraz-Djokovic rematch from the French Open semifinals, or will Sinner and Medvedev spoil things?
Below, we'll break down the odds for Friday's semifinal matches while providing our best bets for these clashes on the grass.
Wimbledon 2023 men's semifinal betting odds, picks, predictions
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner
- Moneyline: Djokovic -610; Sinner +420
- Game Spread: Djokovic -6.5 (+108); Sinner +6.5 (-146)
- Set Spread: Djokovic -2.5 (+120); Sinner +2.5 (-180)
- Total Games: OVER 36.5 (-110); UNDER 36.5 (-120)
Djokovic is an overwhelming favorite ahead of Friday's semifinal match against Sinner, as his -610 price tag pegs him with an 85.92-percent chance of advancing to a fifth straight Wimbledon final. Djokovic is 2-0 against Sinner in his career, including a five-set win over the Italian in the 2022 Wimbledon quarters.
That day, Djokovic had to rally from two sets down before ultimately besting Sinner (5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2). While Djokovic likely improves to 3-0 all-time against Sinner, we could see another lengthy match between two of the game's most complete players.
Djokovic has dropped a set in his past two matches against Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev, so it's not surprising to see Sinner's +2.5 spread odds priced at -180. Sinner's proved he can break Djokovic's serve, winning four-of-nine break points in last year's meeting, so there's reason to believe the No. 8 seed can win at least one set on Friday.
Rather than betting the OVER 36.5 games, which essentially implies the match lasts at least four sets, we'll instead bet Djokovic to win the match and both players win at set at +118.
Under the "Popular" tab for the match on FanDuel Sportsbook, scroll down to the market titled "Match and Both Players to win a Set." Sinner +2.5 sets is too juicy for our liking at -180, but betting this prop at +118 is a wiser way to bet Sinner +2.5 in a match where the higher seed will ultimately reign supreme.
Best Bet: Djokovic wins the match and both players win a set (+118)
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Danii Medvedev
- Moneyline: Alcaraz -265; Medvedev +210
- Game Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 (-108); Medvedev +4.5 (-122)
- Set Spread: Alcaraz -2.5 (+210); Medvedev +2.5 (-320)
- Total Games: OVER 39.5 (-110); UNDER 39.5 (-120)
In the other semifinal, Alcaraz looks to improve to 2-1 all-time against Medvedev after most recently besting him in straight sets (6-3, 6-2) at the Indian Wells finals back in March. Before that win, the then-unseeded Alcaraz fell to Medvedev in straight sets (4-6, 1-6, 2-6) in the second round of the '22 Wimbledon Championships.
The top seed isn't nearly as hefty a favorite to reach the finals as Djokovic is, but his -265 price tag still pits him with a 72.6-percent chance to move to 2-1 all-time against Medvedev. While Medevev had to earn his trip to the semis with a five-set victory over American breakout Chris Eubanks (6-4, 1-6, 4-6, 7-6, 6-1), Alcaraz didn't have much trouble getting past Rune with a straight-set win (7-6, 6-4, 6-4).
When diving into the numbers, these players profile similarly, as both boast elite hold percentages while converting break points at a similar clip. Per Tennis Abstract, as a server, Medvedev's held 85.5 percent of his service games (past 76 matches), with Alcaraz holding 83.9 percent of his service games (past 74 matches).
On break points, Alcaraz has converted 290 break points (No. 1 in ATP) while Medvedev ranks second in the tour (275). That said, Alcaraz won all three break points in his most recent match against Medvedev, with Medvedev failing to reach a break point.
Rather than lay -265 on Alcaraz to advance to the finals, we'll back the top-seed to take an early 1-0 set lead while eventually getting past Medvedev to set up a championship bout between the ATP's top-two players.
Best Bet: Alcaraz to win 1st set and win match (-116)
