U.S. Open 2019: Breaking down the draw, is this the year a Canadian wins the title?

Jackie Spiegel

•
U.S. Open 2019: Breaking down the draw, is this the year a Canadian wins the title? image

As Jay-Z said in the song "Empire State of Mind": "In New York, concrete jungle where dreams are made of. There's nothin' you can't do." Well, starting Monday, Aug. 26 seven Canadians will hit the concrete jungle — aka the hard courts of the U.S. Open in Flushing, Queens — to see if they can fulfill their dreams of winning the final Grand Slam tournament of the year. 

Considering Tennis Canada features some of the sport's top rising stars, the country is poised to leave its mark in New York and possibly crown its first champion. The only question is, who will be inspired by the big lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium and get the title first? Will it be the 19-year-old Félix Auger-Aliassime, who, in a twist of fate, will battle countryman Denis Shapovalov in the opening round for the second straight year? Is Bianca Andreescu, who has skyrocketed to 15th in the world, poised to win her first Grand Slam? Or will the veteran Milos Raonic use his monster serve and net game to clinch his first U.S. Open title?

With the draw now set. The road to a championship won't be an easy one, but the path to the U.S. Open title is littered with opportunities for all of the players.

Bianca Andreescu

The 19-year-old star has had an up-and-down season thanks to a nagging shoulder injury, but she is coming off a championship run at the Rogers Cup in early August. Poised to make noise in her first appearance in Flushing, the No. 15 seed will begin her U.S. Open campaign against the United States' Katie Volynets. This will be the second meeting between the pair; the Mississauga, Ont., native defeated the 17-year-old American on a hard court in Newport Beach, Calif., in January.

If she gets past Volynets, then Andreescu will face unseeded Lesia Tsurenko or Mona Barthel in Round 2 before potentially meeting two-time U.S. Open finalist Caroline Wozniacki in the third round. Andreescu and Wozniacki faced off on the hard courts in late December at the ASB Classic in Auckland, New Zealand, with Andreescu winning 6-4, 6-4. Earlier in that tournament, Andreescu defeated Venus Williams in straight sets.

Andreescu's road to her first Grand Slam tournament title won't get any easier after that. She could potentially meet fourth-seeded Simona Halep in the Round of 16, sixth-seeded Petra Kvitova or No. 11 seed Sloane Stephens in the quarterfinals, and top seed Naomi Osaka in the semifinals. If she gets past Osaka, in what would be their first meeting, the last woman standing between her and the title could be Ashleigh Barty, the second seed.

MORE: Canada's rising star Andreescu ready to take New York

Andreescu has knocked off top seeds en route to her two WTA singles titles — she also won at Indian Wells — and is a confident, rising star. As she told ESPN.com's Aishwarya Kumar at the Aurora Games this week, "I think I can do big things at the U.S. Open."

Genie Bouchard

The Montreal native has struggled to win this year, compiling a 6-14 overall record, and she hasn't had a solid run at the U.S. Open in a while, but if there's any surface on which she can dominate, it's hard courts; between this tournament and the Australian Open, she is 22-11 lifetime.

The 25-year-old will start her tournament against Anastasija Sevastova. This will be a tough first-round matchup; the Latvian holds a 2-1 head-to-head advantage, with their last meeting coming at the 2017 French Open. The bright spot for the Canadian is that her win over the No. 12 seed was on the hard courts in Doha, Qatar, in 2016.

If she can get past Sevastova, then she would face an unseeded player in the second round before potentially battling 22nd-seeded Petra Martic for the first time in the third round. A win there would set up a potential matchup with Serena Williams in the Round of 16. Bouchard has lost all three lifetime meetings against the six-time U.S. Open champ, and all three matches were on hard courts — the last being at the 2019 Australian Open.

Félix Auger-Aliassime

Auger-Aliassime, the highest-seeded Canadian man at No. 18, will not only have to get past the unseeded Shapovalov in the opening round but also likely the last two U.S. Open champions if he wants to win his first Grand Slam title.

The two Canadians faced off last year, with the then-18-year-old Auger-Aliassime having to retire because of an elevated heartbeat. The matchup between the two friends will be a tough first test for the Montreal native, who won their last meeting, at the 2019 Madrid Open. That tournament was on clay; hard courts are not Auger-Aliassime's forte. He is 14-13 all time on the surface and 10-6 this season. He also holds a losing record against left-handers, which Shapovalov is.

If Auger-Aliassime gets past Shapovalov and either of the potential unseeded opponents in the second round, then he'll have an uphill battle after that to get to the final Sunday. The road will be paved with the top-ranked players in the world. He would potentially face 13th-seeded Gael Monfils in the Round of 32, fourth-ranked Dominic Thiem in the fourth round, eighth-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarters, No. 2 seed Rafael Nadal (who he lost to on clay, but does not count because, let's be honest, everyone loses to the "King of Clay") in the semis and ultimately top seed Novak Djokovic in the final. Not an easy task for anyone, let alone a young player.

MORE: Aliassime set to face countryman Shapovalov — again — exactly one year later

A positive for Auger-Aliassime is that he has faced Tsitsipas twice and won both times, first on the hard courts at Indian Wells in March and then in June on grass at the Queen's Club Championship.

"He's the most difficult opponent I've ever faced, and I think it's going to take a couple of tries to beat him," Tsitsipas said of Auger-Aliassime after the most recent loss, 

He added that he wouldn't "be surprised" if Auger-Aliassime defeats the likes of Nadal, Djokovic or Roger Federer. The U.S. Open could be his moment.

Denis Shapovalov

Shapovalov will have to try to power through the same rough stretch if he defeats Auger-Aliassime. While this season has not been kind to the former 20th-ranked player — he is now ranked 38th in the world — he has made runs in Flushing. Last year he advanced to the Round of 32, and in 2017 he broke out by advancing through qualifying before falling in the Round of 16.

As he did in 2018, he will start off against a compatriot. Not counting last year's meeting in Flushing, he won their meeting on hard courts in 2017 at the ATP Challenger Tour event in Drummondville, Que. If the 20-year-old can get past Auger-Aliassime and then Monfils in the third round, he could face Thiem, to whom he has lost twice on hard courts  — most recently at the Rogers Cup.

If Shapovalov can power past Theim and then draw Tsitsipas in the quarters, then the Richmond Hill, Ont., native will go in holding a 2-1 head-to-head advantage. The two wins came on hard courts at the 2018 Australian Open and the 2019 Miami Open. Shapovalov is 1-1 against Nadal (the loss being on clay, so, again, that doesn't count), with the win on a hard court at the Rogers Cup in 2017. He is 0-2 vs. Djokovic, but he did defeat the top seed on grass at the Boodles exhibition tournament in June.

Milos Raonic

Update: Milos Raonic has reportedly withdrawn from the U.S. Open the day before he was set to compete due to a glute injury.

Situated in the top-side bracket, the 21st-seeded Raonic should be able to make it through to the fourth round with ease. He'll face Nicolas Jarry, who has not advanced after Day 1 in any Grand Slam tourney this year, in the opening round before meeting either American Jack Sock or Pablo Cuevas in the second. Raonic holds an 8-3 record against Sock and a 3-0 advantage over the Uruguayan Cuevas. In the third round, he'll probably see 12th-seeded Borna Coric, whom he defeated on a hard court in Delray Beach, Fla., in 2017.

The road will get tougher in the Round of 16 when he'll most likely see Japan's Kei Nishikori, the seventh seed. The two have gone the distance in five of their seven meetings. Two of those matches were epic five-setters, one at the 2015 Davis Cup and one in the Round of 16 at the 2014 U.S. Open. Will we see another in 2019?

Assuming the 28-year-old Raonic's back can hold up — he has struggled with it for months and the injury forced him to retire against Auger-Aliassime at the Rogers Cup in early August — the road would get much tougher if he can get past Nishikori. While his big serve and net presence set him up nicely on hard courts (228-100 on the surface in his career), he would likely next face third-seeded Federer, Djokovic and then Nadal. Raonic holds lopsided losing records against all three players. 

Brayden Schnur

The Toronto native, who's ranked 92nd in the world, will be making his U.S. Open debut and second Grand Slam main-draw appearance. Schnur has a litany of ranked players in his path. He'll meet 29th-seeded Benoit Paire in the first round. The Frenchman, who was once ranked as high as 18th, is currently ranked 30th and holds a 25-20 overall record this season. While he did reach the fourth round of the U.S. Open in 2015, Paire can be inconsistent and rarely wins when trailing after one set (45-186 in his career). 

After Paire, Schnur's second-round matchup would be against one of two unseeded players, Slovenia's Aljaz Bedene or Slovakia's Jozef Kovalik. Bedene is ranked 80th in the world while Kovalik is 364th. If he can get past that match, then it would likely be all seeded players thereafter with Nadal looming in the quarters.

Schnur does have a history of playing well in New York. He was a finalist at the New York Open in February after upsetting third-seeded Steve Johnson in the Round of 16 and the then-49th ranked Sam Querrey in the semis.

Vasek Pospisil​

If the universe is kind, then the veteran Pospisil would face Schnur in the fourth round. It's unlikely, but we have seen stranger things happen in Flushing. First, though, Pospisil will face ninth-seeded Karen Khachanov in the opening round. The Russian has had a solid year; he advanced to the semis of the Rogers Cup — beating Auger-Aliassime along the way.

This U.S. Open opening match marks only the third Masters 1000 or higher ​appearance this season for the 29-year-old Pospisil, who missed the first six months of the season after undergoing back surgery in October. He debuted at Wimbledon, where he fell to Auger-Aliassime; he also lost to Auger-Aliassime at the Rogers Cup. Pospisil did look strong in that match, however; he battled back to win the second set in a tiebreaker before losing the third, also in a tiebreaker.

If he gets past Khachanov and potentially unseeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, then he'll likely face Diego Schwartzman in the third round. Pospisil has a winning record against the Argentinian after defeating him at the 2016 Miami Open in three sets.

Regardless of how many match wins Pospisil registers, if he can compete on the court and snag at least a set or two, then the tournament will be a victory for the 215th-ranked player, considering how much time he has missed this year.

Note: An eighth Canadian, Steven Diez, competed in qualifying. He lost to Soonwoo Kwon of South Korea on Friday and will not participate in the main draw.

Jackie Spiegel