FIFA World Cup final 2022: Argentina vs France prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for title decider

Argentina vs France, Lionel Messi vs Kylian Mbappe... the thrilling heavyweight finish that this sensational 2022 World Cup has deserved.

Officially by the FIFA rankings, this is No. 3 vs No. 4, but on the whole, the two most deserving teams reached the end of the road.

Despite a host of injuries before the tournament started, France have been sensational, overwhelming teams with a pace and precision on the counter-attack run by Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann. Add in the great form of No. 9 Olivier Giroud, and they're a formidable opponent.

Yet Messi and Argentina will be licking their chops after watching the long stretches of pressure Les Bleus faced in their semifinal against Morocco. The Albiceleste are built well to possess the ball against the France setup and deal with the pace on the counter.

So who will lift the trophy? An enthralling, star-studded World Cup final awaits us, so let's break it down.

MORE: Follow the World Cup 2022 final live | Starting Lineups | Live Betting

Argentina vs France betting odds

If you're not quite sure how even this World Cup final is expected to be, take a look at these odds — both teams are given plus odds to come away with a regulation-time win, and minus odds to lift the World Cup trophy, with almost nothing between them.

Some bookmakers have even split it directly down the middle, completely unable to favour one side or the other. France were slightly favoured in some places early on, but now it seems that if any team has an edge its Argentina, with the odds shifting towards the South Americans.

Both squads boast a world-class superstar, and both sides have surrounded that star with top quality players.

What bookmakers are sure of, though, is a defensive battle, as the under 2.5 goal total is a short price, swung all the way nearly to 1/2 odds, while the over gets the plus treatment.

The oddsmakers cannot figure out, however, if both teams will score or not, suggesting the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw.

MORE: All the odds for the 2022 World Cup final, including goal scorers, cards, corners and more

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

Argentina vs France: 3 things to know

Argentina vs France team news

Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni officially has a fully healthy squad, which is a rarity at this stage of the competition after a grueling, month-long journey in Qatar. The only slight questions are the fitness of Angel Di Maria and Paulo Dybala, as the former was an unused substitute against Croatia in the semifinal, while the latter saw just 16 minutes off the bench, his first appearance of the tournament. It's been no matter, as Julian Alvarez has been outstanding in support of star Lionel Messi.

France have weathered their early injury crisis with aplomb. Les Bleus are without Paul Pogba, N'Golo Kante, Karim Benzema, Presnel Kimpembe, Christopher Nkunuku, and Mike Maignan, who all missed the tournament with pre-World Cup injuries. They then lost Lucas Hernandez to a torn ACL in the opening match. Yet, they've made use of their world-class depth, as Lucas Hernandez has stepped in for his brother admirably and Olivier Giroud has been fantastic up front in Benzema's absence.

MORE: Kylian Mbappe's idol? Here's why Cristiano Ronaldo is revered by the France star

Argentina vs France key stats

• Argentina and France have played three times previously at the FIFA World Cup. Argentina won the first two meetings in 1930 and 1978, while France knocked Argentina out of the 2018 World Cup in the Round of 16.
• If Kylian Mbappe continues at his current pace for the French national team, by age 30 he will have amassed 153 international caps and 79 goals. At that rate, he would catch Cristiano Ronaldo's record of 118 international goals in his 229th cap at age 36.
• Should Argentina win the final, Lionel Messi would become the fourth-oldest player to win a FIFA World Cup in which he played, behind Miroslav Klose, Nilton Santos and 40-year-old Italian record-holder Dino Zoff.

Argentina vs France match facts

• Date: Sunday, December 18
• Kickoff Time: 10:00 a.m. ET / 3:00 p.m. GMT / 2:00 a.m. AEDT (Mon, Dec. 19)
• Location: Lusail Stadium
• Official: TBD

MORE: Who will officiate the 2022 World Cup final?

Argentina vs France prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+200)
• Against the spread lean: Argentina +0.5 (-225)
• Score prediction: Argentina 1-1 France (Argentina to win on penalties)

Two of the best three teams on the planet (in my estimation) in the World Cup final, and there's almost nothing to separate them.

There are reasons to worry about either side. France have been put under pressure for long stretches of games, and the only match they've kept a clean sheet in was the semifinal against Morocco, where Les Bleus were pummeled on both sides of halftime.

Argentina, meanwhile, have struggled at times to take their chances, and have not been as clinical as some of their scorelines at this tournament might suggest. 

MORE: Catch a detailed rundown of Argentina vs. France odds, lines, and props

Argentina vs France: best bet

• Pick: Over 4.5 yellow cards
• Odds: +106 (FanDuel)

France haven't been a team that pick up yellow cards at this World Cup (they have had five this tournament), but the game of theirs that profiles similarly to what we may see in this final is the clash with England. France were sloppy in that match, and picked up a trio of cautions.

Argentina, meanwhile, are one of the most physical teams in the field. Their 12 bookings so far is joint-second of anyone in the World Cup, level with Serbia and two back of Saudi Arabia.

Even in a comfortable 3-0 win over Croatia in the semifinals, they picked up two bookings, and in the quarterfinal war with the Netherlands they earned an insane nine cards. The speed of the France attack will force them into a few clumsy or late tackles.

* Note: Odds for cards and corners are not released until 24-48 hours prior to the match, with bookmakers waiting until the referee is announced to set yellow card odds.

Argentina vs France prop bet

• Pick: Score bands — 1-0, 2-0, 3-0
• Odds: +320 (BetMGM)

• Pick: Score bands — 0-1, 0-2, 0-3
• Odds: +320 (BetMGM)

The under would have been a very nice play here, but instead, the odds are horrendous, opening at -190. Instead, we're going for a slightly reconfigured both teams to score "no" bet. While we predicted a 1-1 draw earlier, these odds are actually too good to pass up.

France have plenty of attacking talent, and have put it on full display in this tournament, but Argentina have been the best defensive side in the entire World Cup, and that will likely keep a lid on things throughout the match.

Even in the event of an early goal, the team going ahead will prioritise keeping that advantage over adding a second.

See how France played the semifinal against Morocco as a perfect case in point. Theo Hernandez scored in the fourth minute of the match, and Les Bleus progressed through the rest of the first half by conceding lots of possession to their opponent, taking the air out of the ball when in possession, and looking to hit on the counter-attack if given the chance. Add in that each goalkeeper is in great form coming into this match, and both these teams like to attack at lightning pace but also do a lot of nothing with the ball for long stretches of play, and one goal could win it.

If you put this all together, a bet of one unit each on these two score bands and a draw at +210 nets you at least a slight profit should any of the three come to pass. The only way that combo bet fails is if both teams score and one side wins in regulation, which seems unlikely given how little there is to separate them.

Argentina vs France flier bet

• Pick: Antoine Griezmann to assist a goal
• Odds: +380 (FanDuel)

If it were not for the star power of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann would be the frontrunner of this World Cup's Golden Ball award. Mbappe is the star of Les Bleus, but Griezmann has been the true key to their performance in front of goal.

Griezmann has 21 chances created in the World Cup so far, the most of anyone in the tournament, three above second-place Messi. His 3.54 expected assists is nearly double anyone else at the entire 2022 World Cup (Leroy Sane's 1.86 xA is second). His creativity in a new No. 8 role has been simply sensational. He was spectacular again against Morocco, and while he didn't pick up an official assist, he was a massive part of the France attack.

That's not all Griezmann has done this World Cup — he has the third-most tackles won of any player with over 1.0 xA (7 tackles), behind just Croatia's Mateo Kovacic (1.18 xA, 14 tackles won) and teammate Theo Hernandez (1.01 xA, 10 tackles won). But for our purposes, his ability to run this France attack to perfection is what we're after.

Argentina vs France live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch every World Cup match live with fuboTV (U.S.-only free trial)

The Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup final will be played at the showpiece Lusail Stadium, as the curtain comes down on what has been a fantastic tournament.

Here's how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.