The 2024 MLS season will have its hands full following up the example set by 2023, a campaign full of memorable moments and historic achievements.
Defending champions Columbus Crew and reigning Supporters' Shield winners FC Cincinnati both look to fend off Lionel Messi in his first full season with Inter Miami. Over in the Western Conference, St. Louis City SC had a banner first year, topping the standings in iconic fashion.
For the first time in eight years, MLS will begin a season without an expansion team joining the ranks. While San Diego FC will enter the competition as the league's 30th team in 2025, this season will see the same 29 clubs as the previous year compete for the silverware.
So who will finish with trophy in hand once its all said and done? The Sporting News looks at the most likely sides to end the year as the final team standing.
MLS Cup odds to win 2024 title
In the 2024 MLS season, 29 teams are competing for the league championship. The regular season winner secures the Supporters' Shield, but that is not the most coveted piece of silverware available for clubs to secure.
The true league champion is the last one standing at the end of the MLS Cup playoffs, with 18 teams qualifying for the postseason. The top seven in each conference reach the postseason proper, while the eighth and ninth-placed qualifiers meet in a play-in matchup.
Once into the playoffs, clubs compete for the overall league championship, hoping to be the one team left standing with the MLS Cup in hand.
2024 MLS Cup title odds via DraftKings in USA. Odds as of February 20, 2024, prior to start of 2024 season.
| Club | Odds (DraftKings) |
Club | Odds (DraftKings) |
| Inter Miami | +250 | Columbus Crew | +800 |
| LAFC | +850 | FC Cincinnati | +1200 |
| Philadelphia Union | +1400 | NY Red Bulls | +1600 |
| Seattle Sounders | +1800 | Orlando City SC | +2200 |
| Nashville SC | +2500 | LA Galaxy | +2500 |
| Houston Dynamo | +2500 | NYCFC | +2800 |
| Atlanta United | +2800 | Sporting KC | +3000 |
| St. Louis City SC | +3500 | NE Revolution | +4000 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | +4000 | Portland Timbers | +5000 |
| CF Montreal | +5000 | Austin FC | +5000 |
| Minnesota United | +5000 | FC Dallas | +5000 |
| Real Salt Lake | +5000 | Chicago Fire | +6500 |
| Charlotte FC | +6500 | SJ Earthquakes | +6500 |
| DC United | +6500 | Colorado Rapids | +10,000 |
| Toronto FC | +10,000 |
Inter Miami, equipped with the greatest player of all time in Lionel Messi, are thought most likely to win the 2024 MLS Cup by a significant margin. Their +250 odds to win the league championship are unheard of in the realm of preseason futures, far and away considered the most likely to win the title.
Behind them are defending champions Columbus Crew, 2023 finalists LAFC, and reigning Supporters' Shield winners FC Cincinnati. One surprising side appearing amongst the upper echelon is the New York Red Bulls, who missed the playoffs last season with a 12th-placed finish but are considered sixth-favorites to win this year's trophy.
Predictions, picks for 2024 MLS season
The 2023/24 offseason was defined not by big signings, but by big departures, and calculating who lost the least is the way to determine our coming title winner.
LAFC saw Giorgio Chiellini retire, and the Italian represents a big blow as he contributed heavily last season. FC Cincinnati sold Brandon Vazquez to Monterrey and saw Yerson Mosquera head back to Wolves after his loan, San Jose Earthquakes offloaded Cade Cowell to Chivas, St. Louis City saw Nicholas Gioacchini move back to Italy, and Charlotte FC sent its best forward Karol Swiderski back to Europe.
Even the inter-league transfers feel more like losses than gains. Inter Miami, in a desperate quest to be roster compliant amidst all its big-money players, traded Kamal Miller to Portland, weakening its already thin and porous defensive line, while also shipping rock-solid midfielder Gregore off to his native Brazil. Dru Yearwood left New York Red Bulls for Nashville, Tyler Boyd swapped the LA Galaxy for Cincinnati, and Miles Robinson left his longtime home Atlanta for a change of scenery in Cincinnati.
Who will win Supporters' Shield in 2024 MLS season?
To put it plainly, Inter Miami do not have the strength to compete for a league title. MLS silverware does not come from star power, but from depth, as both FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew proved last season. Even finalists LAFC reached the title match thanks to their squad solidity despite looking its weakest in years over parts of the regular season.
The MLS campaign is about attrition, not sensationalism, something Inter Miami and their paper-thin defensive unit plus aging roster will learn the hard way this season. They might squeak into the playoffs, but they will not be considered title contenders.
Looking at the top teams this year, there's no perfect roster. Yet the best combination of depth, star power, and great coaching lies with FC Cincinnati. While replacing the long-impending departure of Brandon Vazquez with Corey Baird is vastly underwhelming, the club has decided to rest a major goal scoring load on the shoulders of Aaron Boupendza up front, and he appears ready. Losing the emerging midfielder Mosquera is also rough, but his replacement Pavel Bucha looks up for the task. And finally, the addition of Miles Robinson to partner with Matt Miazga in defense is a plus signing.
The relative strength of the Eastern Conference will make their job more difficult, but LAFC got much worse this offseason at both goalkeeper (the move to sign Hugo Lloris in place of Maxime Crepeau is baffling) and striker (Carlos Vela is another year older and Tomas Angel appears one for the future), so it's too tough to trust anyone on that side.
The Philadelphia Union are a good shout at positive value, as they lost only Andres Perea and managed to re-sign Kai Wagner in a coup, but their continued over-reliance on aging Alejandro Bedoya is a glaring hole that has yet to be plugged.
Prediction: FC Cincinnati to win 2024 Supporters' Shield (+1400 on FanDuel)
Who will reach 2024 MLS Cup final?
The Western Conference just doesn't sport a club that looks up for the task of winning silverware, but they will eventually nominate someone to have a shot in the final.
As mentioned previously, LAFC are on a slightly downward trajectory, so while they reached the final last season and will have a good shot at doing so again — it's hard to count Denis Bouanga out — they just don't seem to be as well positioned as they have been in recent years.
Despite their excellent debut season, St. Louis City slumped in the playoffs and then suffered a huge blow in the departure of Nicholas Gioacchini, so it's hard to imagine them having a real shot either, especially in the likely regression of Roman Burki in goal, who carried them through much of the year. The Houston Dynamo looked a real force at the end of last season, but they did nothing in the transfer window, so can Hector Herrera really carry the side over a full season at 33 years old?
Instead, it's the Seattle Sounders who are far and away the most complete team in the West. Even with Nicolas Lodeiro leaving, they sport a roster with very few holes. Between Jackson Ragen, Xavier Arreaga, and Stefan Frei, the Sounders have maybe the league's deepest defensive unit, and new signing Pedro de la Vega looks a bright addition. Add in one of the league's top coaches in Brian Schmetzer, and this team is unquestionably the best in the West.
Prediction: Seattle Sounders to reach 2024 MLS Cup final* (+500 on FanDuel)
*This selection is listed as "Western Conference Winner 2024" on FanDuel — Not to be confused with "Western Conference Winner 2024 (excluding playoffs)" which is the selection for Western Conference regular season champion.
MORE: Inter Miami odds to win MLS: Can Lionel Messi achieve first Major League Soccer title in 2024?
Who will win 2024 MLS Cup title?
Unlike winning the Supporters' Shield, which requires innumerable depth over the course of a very long and taxing season, three features are necessary for any club hoping to achieve postseason glory: star power, great goalkeeping, and good coaching.
Sure, Inter Miami have all of those, but their position in the playoffs is far from guaranteed (despite what the betting market wants you to think), and their weaknesses are too glaring to be offset by their star power.
The club which sports the best combination of all three is Atlanta United. The goal-scoring duo of Thiago Almada and Giorgios Giakomakis is the best creative/finishing combo in MLS, the signing of Josh Cohen is a major upgrade in goal. Losing Miles Robinson is a blow, but their back line was already in rough shape with him there, so a change of scenery isn't a deathblow, and the additions of Stian Gregersen and Bartosz Silsz will help greatly.
Coaching remains an unknown, as we still have no evidence that Gonzalo Pineda can bring it all together, but they peaked at the right time last year, and if they do so again, with this improved roster, they can make a run.
Another team which profiles very similarly is Orlando City SC. They don't have the depth to win a Supporters' Shield, but if they nail the transition from Duncan Maguire to Luis Muriel at striker, with Facundo Torres and new signing Nicolas Lodeiro pulling the strings, they have the pieces to make noise. Yet they also have a coach who has yet to really flex his muscles, and they don't sport a title-winning goalkeeper who can stand tall in the biggest moments.
Prediction: Atlanta United to win 2024 MLS Cup title (+2800 on DraftKings)
Where will Inter Miami finish?
When looking at the preseason odds for Inter Miami ahead of the 2024 campaign, you'd never know that this side finished second-to-last in the Eastern Conference last season and did nothing to solve any of their problems in the offseason.
The most glaring issue for Inter Miami is its defense. The Herons conceded 54 goals in 34 games last season, second-most in the East, and they did absolutely nothing to improve at the position. They traded the team's only steady defender in Kamal Miller, and while they brought in a very capable replacement in Nicolas Freire, at this point that swap is considered a net wash at best. DeAndre Yedlin looks cooked, Tomas Aviles remains young and green, and the depth is so bad that young full-back Noah Allen has played significant minutes at center-back in preseason, where the club was shredded time and again.
In midfield, Sergio Busquets is a shadow of his former self and will be relied on heavily as Gregore was a casualty of their roster compliance issues. Benjamin Cremaschi is out for a few months with an injury, and they lack anyone else capable of out-of-possession coverage.
Finally, the availability of the squad's star players will be a major issue all year. Lionel Messi has already struggled with muscle issues in preseason, and Luis Suarez's chronic knee pain will have to be managed greatly all year. If both those players appear in over two thirds of the club's games, it will be a coup.
They will squeak into the playoffs on star power alone, but Tata Martino has a major job on his hands, and it's difficult to imagine the club coming anywhere remotely close to the expectations set by the betting market this season.
Prediction: Inter Miami to finish 8th in Eastern Conference
