Who will win Euro 2024 Golden Boot? Prediction, odds, favorites and expert tips for top goal scorer award

To win the European Championship, scoring goals is a must. Italy logged 13 goals en route to their title in 2020, and even Portugal's notoriously defensive style in 2016 saw them bag a goal on nine different occasions.

Yet from an individual perspective, scoring a ton of goals on your own doesn't often lead to a title. Only once since 1992 has a player finished alone atop the goal scoring table and also lifted the trophy, while only one other time did a title-winning player also finish level atop the individual standings.

Portugal superstar Cristiano Ronaldo and Czech frontman Patrik Schick shared the Golden Boot last time out in 2020, each finding the net on five occasions throughout the tournament. Yet Portugal were eliminated in the Round of 16, while the Czech side was bounced shortly thereafter in the quarterfinals.

With this year's favorites also hailing from countries expected to challenge for the title, can the likes of Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe lead their side to victory by also contributing heavily in front of net? Or will someone star in the group stage before flaming out in the knockout stage en route to an early exit? The Sporting News brings you through all the contenders and picks the most likely to emerge with the award, while also indicating those who could disappoint.

MORE: Predicting who will win Euro 2024 with England and France favorites in Germany

Euro 2024 Golden Boot odds with Harry Kane favorite

England star Harry Kane is the pre-tournament betting favorite to finish Euro 2024 as the competition's top goal scorer. Kane, who is England's primary penalty taker, scored an incredible 44 goals through 45 matches across all competitions in his first season at Bayern Munich, and is England's all-time record goal scorer with 62 goals in 89 caps.

He is challenged closely by Kylian Mbappe of France, who faded down the second half of the latest club season but remains one of the world's most formidable attacking stars. He has not scored in any of his last three international caps, but his World Cup final hat-trick against Argentina remains fresh in the memories of many fans.

The gap between those top two and the rest of the field is significant, with Euro 2020 winner Cristiano Ronaldo well back in third, followed by two other stars from England and France in Jude Bellingham and a to-retire Olivier Giroud. The first player from host nation Germany doesn't appear until Niclas Fullkrug appears at joint-10th position, level with a litany of other individuals. If Kane or Mbappe don't win it, it's truly anyone's guess.

Odds as of May 31, 2024 via BetMGM in USA.

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Who will win Euro 2024 top goal scorer?

As unfortunate as it is, the top goal scorer in a tournament with such a large field as the European Championship is won in the group stage. You'd love to see this award won in the later stages of the competition, but the top scorer award is almost always decided early in the tournament.

That's evident last year as Cristiano Ronaldo finished level with Patrik Schick on five goals — Ronaldo scored all five of his goals in the group stage, while Schick scored three of his in the group stage and two more in the early rounds of the knockouts. The award is also consistently won by a team's primary penalty taker. Looking again at the 2020 tournament, three of Ronaldo's goals were scored from the spot, while one of Schick's did.

Ronaldo is in good club form having just set the Saudi Pro League record for goals in a season, an incredible feat at 39 years old regardless of what league it is, and he had an outlandish 10 goals in Euro 2024 qualifying to lead the continent. As a cherry on top, heir-apparent for Portugal, Goncalo Ramos, is coming off an awful first season at PSG, cementing Ronaldo's place as the first-choice option at the national team level regardless of age.

Prediction: Cristiano Ronaldo (+1200 on BetMGM)

We've tipped Germany to triumph in this competition on home soil, so it follows that the Germans could also put forth a contender for the Golden Boot. While some teams don't have a clear first-choice option in front of goal, Niclas Fullkrug has become just that for the hosts, just as he's done for Borussia Dortmund in a Champions League final appearance. Fullkrug is an excellent option to find the net even when his team doesn't have a lot of the ball, so with Germany expected to approach games with a high pace of play, he is a dangerous threat up front with solid finishing and good aerial proficiency.

Another potential group stage standout is Romelu Lukaku, as Belgium were handed a very favorable draw in Group E alongside Slovakia, Romania, and Ukraine. The Belgians have been prone to disappointment, but Lukaku is their penalty taker and their opponents have been prone to conceding in bunches.

Finally, while Alvaro Morata faded significantly down the stretch for Atletico Madrid, even losing his starting spot, the Spaniard has a wealth of creative talent behind him in the national team and could be primed for a return to form. His recent struggles at the club level has his odds inflated, but they drew porous Albania in the group stage and could play a high-scoring game against Italy as well, meaning there will be chances for him to find the net. Morata scored a hat-trick against Georgia just last September, so he remains a dangerous attacking player sporting solid value.

Dark Horse: Niclas Fullkrug (+3300 on BetMGM), Romelu Lukaku (+2000 on BetMGM), Alvaro Morata (+3300 on BetMGM)

When it comes to the Golden Boot award, fans must separate their selections from the perception of the players themselves. Picking the Golden Boot winner does not — and please let me make this clear, does NOT — reflect some negative statement regarding the player's overall abilities.

Thus is the case for Jude Bellingham, who is probably the most complete and talented player in the world at just 20 years old, but is also not in a position to win the top goal scorer award at this competition. Amidst an England squad bursting with attacking talent, there's a reason Bellingham has just three international goals in 29 appearances to date. Even at the club level, Bellingham's goal tally slowed down the second half of the season, as his responsibilities on the pitch are lengthy, and scoring goals just isn't chief amongst them. He will surely find the net on occasion, but it's simply not his first job within the team, and there are too many quality English players to share the goals.

Additionally, those backing Italy to make another deep run at the Euros should shy away from Ciro Immobile and look elsewhere. The Lazio star scored just seven Serie A goals this past season, including one since mid-February, and he's almost surely been replaced by Gianluca Scamacca on the Azzurri depth chart. He's made just two international appearances since playing 77 minutes in a 1-0 defeat to North Macedonia in March of 2022 due to injury and poor form, and while Scamacca hasn't put it together yet on the international stage, he enters this tournament in white-hot club form.

Stay away from: Jude Bellingham (+1600 on BetMGM), Ciro Immobile (+3300 on BetMGM)