Both Tottenham and AC Milan know their European lives hang in the balance as they contest the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 matchup.
Despite Milan's 1-0 advantage after the first leg in Italy, both sides have been hit or miss over the past few months across all competitions, meaning their Champions League lives may well serve as the highlight of the season for their respective fan bases.
Each team has already been eliminated from domestic Cup action, meaning that only league play remains for the loser of this matchup the rest of the season. Therefore, remaining afloat in Europe serves as a palate cleanser for an otherwise spotty domestic campaign.
With the two wildly inconsistent teams meeting in Champions League action, The Sporting News breaks down a very difficult match to predict.
LIVE BLOG: Follow along for Tottenham vs AC Milan with highlights, updates, and more
Tottenham vs AC Milan odds
Tottenham are minus-odds favourites at home to secure a regulation victory against their Italian opponents, but thanks to the slight AC Milan advantage from the first leg, the visitors are still significant favourites to advance to the Round of 16.
There are also questions over whether both sides can find the back of the net, but the oddsmakers have slightly tilted towards a positive answer to that inquisition.
The matchday line movement has been in favour of the home side as well as in favour of a defensive struggle. Spurs have dropped down to nearly even money to advance to the quarterfinals despite their goal disadvantage from the first leg, while the under has sunk to -135.
MORE: When will Antonio Conte return to manage Tottenham? Latest reports & updates
| BetMGM (USA) | Sports Interaction (Canada) | SkyBet (UK) | Neds (Australia) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | -135 | -131 | 3/4 | 1.80 |
| Draw | +260 | +265 | 11/4 | 3.40 |
| AC Milan win | +360 | +333 | 7/2 | 4.60 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -110 / -130 | -111 / -140 | 5/6, 5/6 | 1.95 / 1.75 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -105 / -135 | +113 / -144 | 1/1, 8/11 | — |
| Tottenham advance | +105 | +110 | 6/5 | 2.30 |
| AC Milan advance | -140 | -152 | 8/13 | 1.57 |
Tottenham vs AC Milan: 3 things to know
Tottenham vs AC Milan match facts
- Date: Wednesday, March 8
- Kickoff Time: 3:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm GMT / 7:00 am AEDT (Thu, Mar. 9)
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London, England)
- Official: Clement Turpin (FRA)
- First leg: AC Milan 1-0 Tottenham
Tottenham vs AC Milan team news
Spurs are missing long-term absentees Rodrigo Bentancur, Hugo Lloris, Yves Bissouma and Ryan Sessegnon, but otherwise are pretty healthy going into this home leg. Acting head coach Cristian Stellini has continued to take charge of training, but Antonio Conte is reportedly returning to the sideline for this match.
AC Milan sport a squad at near full health, with Brahim Diaz starting despite suffering a knee injury against Atalanta in late February. Otherwise, Stefano Pioli has his entire roster to pick from, with Charles de Ketelaere given a new chance to impress in place of the in-form Diaz. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has returned from his ACL tear in late February, making a pair of appearances off the bench, while goalkeeper Mike Maignan has reclaimed his starting role in the last two games after being injured on international duty in September.
MORE: Updated Premier League table with title, Champions League, and relegation race breakdowns
Tottenham vs AC Milan key stats
- The first-leg victory was AC Milan's first win over Tottenham in their five all-time meetings. They matched up twice in the 1971/72 UEFA Cup, and again for two more matches in the 2010/11 Champions League. On both occasions, Tottenham won the first leg by a single goal, and the two sides drew the second leg.
- This matchup features the second-highest combined domestic table positions of the two opponents (4th + 5th = 9) of any Champions League Round of 16 knockout matchup, only behind that of the Chelsea vs. Borussia Dortmund meeting thanks to Chelsea's 10th place position in the Premier League.
- Rafael Leao has completed 44 dribbles this season in Serie A play, the most of any player in Serie A, winning take-ons at a relatively inefficient 46 percent clip. Leao's 67 dribbles across all competitions place him fifth amongst all players in Europe's Big Five leagues, yet he has not scored in any competition since January 14, a run of seven straight games without a goal.
MORE: Premier League top goal scorers as Erling Haaland chases league records
Tottenham vs AC Milan prediction
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+270)
- Score prediction: Tottenham 0-0 AC Milan
- Who will advance: AC Milan
It's hard to find two more inconsistent teams amongst Europe's elite this season, which makes this game exceptionally hard to bet.
Tottenham are the better attacking side on talent, but they are also more vulnerable defensively given recent form and have put up some real stinkers in the final third of late. Milan, meanwhile, have been forced to grind out low-scoring victories in play of late as they struggle to create quality chances.
Milan should feel comfortable absorbing pressure and hitting Tottenham on the counter, and they would get the lean in this road match if it weren't for their horrid road form. Since the start of 2023, Milan have won just two road matches, coming against newly-promoted Monza and relegation-threatened Salernitana. They picked up a draw at Lecce in mid-January, were pummeled by Lazio on the road, and fell at struggling Fiorentina this past weekend. Even as the "road" team in their own stadium, AC Milan were beaten by rivals Inter in the latest San Siro derby.
This has all the makings of a 0-0 draw, and even if the teams find the back of the net, it's too tough to pick a winner, so we'll stick with a draw.
Tottenham vs AC Milan: Best bet
- Pick: Scoreless first half (+185)
- Odds: ODDS (BetMGM)
Even if the match doesn't end in a 0-0 draw, the first half could be a slugfest. Spurs will know they only need one goal to get back in the match, and can bide their time at home, while AC Milan are good at killing off time with possession, even if they don't create much themselves.
Spurs have reached halftime with the match scoreless in four straight games, and AC Milan will be all too happy to oblige, as they also were level at the break with Fiorentina this past weekend before the second half gave way to the game's three goals.
Tottenham vs AC Milan prop bet
- Pick: Both teams to score — NO
- Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
It's tough to figure out which team will come out on top of this second leg, but it's not hard to see why it's unlikely that both teams find the back of the net. I'm not entirely sure which team will score and which will keep a clean sheet, but goals will be at a premium here.
Both sides have struggled mightily to create chances this season on all fronts, and their attacking duds have come against anyone and everyone. Spurs have been shut out in two consecutive matches, against Wolves in Premier League play and by lower league side Sheffield United in the FA Cup. Meanwhile, AC Milan have scored multiple goals in just two of their last nine matches, and an injury to Brahim Diaz means the sputtering Charles de Ketelaere has re-entered the starting lineup.
However, defensively the two teams look improved. Milan kept four straight clean sheets before the latest defeat to Fiorentina, and the four-game stretch through January where they leaked goals for fun (2-2 draw with Lecce, 3-0 defeat to Inter, 4-0 defeat to Lazio, 5-2 defeat to Sassuolo) seems to be squarely in the past.
Spurs, similarly, have looked better at the back, conceding no more than 1.41 xG in any league game since the 4-2 defeat to Manchester City in January. It's hard to truly "trust" Cristian Romero or Clement Lenglet, but they are getting the job done at the moment.
Tottenham vs AC Milan live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Champions League matches live with fuboTV in USA
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | — | Paramount+, ViX, ViX+ |
| Canada | — | DAZN |
| UK | BT Sport 1 | BT Sport |
| Australia | — | Stan Sport |
| New Zealand | — | Spark Sport |
| India | Sony Ten 1 | Sony LIV, JioTV |
| Hong Kong | beIN Sports 4 | beIN Sports Connect |
| Malaysia | — | beIN Sports Connect |
| Singapore | — | beIN Sports Connect |
