Ranking the Champions League 16: Can anyone keep Liverpool from repeat title?

Mike DeCourcy

Ranking the Champions League 16: Can anyone keep Liverpool from repeat title? image

The knockout stage of the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League commences Tuesday, with 15 teams eager to knock Liverpool FC from the top of the mountain — and Atletico Madrid positioned to take the first shot.

It will not be easy, though.

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A finalist each of the past two seasons, Liverpool began the current season oriented more toward winning the Premier League title for the first time in its history, with retaining the Champions League trophy somewhat of a secondary concern. With LFC so clearly in front in the league, however, a chance to win a double is extremely enticing.

This is how the challengers rank entering the Round of 16:

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16. Napoli

Champions League appearances: 9
Best finish: Round of 16
2018-19 performance: Group stage
Current league standing: Serie A, 11th
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, 12 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: FC Barcelona
North American connections: Mexico national team star Hirving Lozano plays as a forward for Napoli.

Napoli, unhappy with its performance in Serie A — where it currently stands 11th with 30 points — fired manager Carlo Ancelotti after securing a Round of 16 position ahead of RB Salzburg and Genk. Ancelotti’s tactical excellence helped get the team this far, and there has been no great response to his dismissal. Napoli has lost three of its past five and is 3-5 in league play under new boss Gennaro Gattuso. Napoli has performed well in the Coppa Italia and holds a 1-0 semifinal lead over Inter Milan entering the second leg; that may be where Napoli’s priority rests.

15. Valencia

Champions League appearances: 12
Best finish: Finalist
2018-19 performance: Group stage
Current league standing: La Liga, 6th
2019-20 group stage: 1st, 11 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Atalanta
North American connections: USMNT right back Shaq Moore trained with Valencia in 2014.

Valencia has been moving along as a middling team in La Liga, with only one more goal scored than allowed all season (for context, Liverpool is a plus-45). Valencia was a plus-2 in the group stage. That just doesn’t figure to work.

14. Atalanta

Champions League appearances: N/A
Best finish: N/A
2018-19 performance: N/A
Current league standing: Serie A, 4th
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, seven points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Valencia
North American connections: N/A

Atalanta has been the most prolific goal-scoring team in Serie A, with an average of 2.65 goals per game that exceeds even Liverpool, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain, though that did not bleed over into the Champions League group stage. A fortunate draw gives Atalanta an opportunity to advance.

13. Lyon

Champions League appearances: 18
Best finish: Semifinals
2018-19 performance: Round of 16
Current league standing: Ligue 1, 9th
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, eight points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Juventus
North American connections: World Cup winners Megan Rapinoe, Alex Morgan and Morgan Brian are among the U.S. stars who have played for Olympic Lyonnais Feminin, the club’s champion women’s team.

Lyon has not recently demonstrated any capacity to win at this level, advancing to the knockout stages with the lowest point total of any team still alive and struggling, as well, in league play.

12. Chelsea

Champions League appearances: 16
Best finish: Champions (2012)
2018-19 performance: Did not qualify
Current league standing: Premier League, 4th
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, 11 points out 18
Round of 16 opponent: Bayern Munich
North American connections: U.S. national team star Christian Pulisic is a regular in the first team, though currently injured.

This competition will be an excellent experience for a team with so many promising young players, such as wingers Pulisic and Mason Mount and striker Tammy Abraham. Pulisic has been in the Champions League before, with Dortmund, and delivered some of his best performances. For those who have yet to experience this level of intensity, getting the chance to play Bayern will have benefits as Frank Lampard continues to develop a team that soon may challenge the best teams in England — and Europe.

11. Borussia Dortmund

Champions League appearances: 18
Best finish: Champions (1997)
2018-19 performance: Round of 16
Current league standing: Bundesliga, 3rd
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, 10 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Paris Saint-German
North American connections: U.S. midfielder Gio Reyna played at the FIFA U-17 World Cup. He has not yet appeared ithe n Champions League.

No team is more thrilled with the recent rule change that allows players who performed in the Champions League for one team before the winter transfer window to compete for another if moved during that period. Erling Haaland, who looked so dangerous for RB Salzburg in the 2-0 loss to Liverpool that closed UCL group play, has been a sensation since moving to Dortmund in December: It’s news when he doesn’t score. The team’s leaky defense means Dortmund needs all the goals it can get, but this remains one of the most dynamic sides in the competition.

10. RB Leipzig

Champions League appearances: 2
Best finish: Round of 16
2018-19 performance: N/A
Current league standing: Bundesliga, 1st
2019-20 group stage: 1st, 11 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Tottenham
North American connections: USMNT midfielder Tyler Adams plays midfield and right back for Leipzig, though he recently injured his calf and is expected to miss the Round of 16 opener.

Leipzig is relatively new to Champions League but has quickly established itself as a significant player. The club showed how difficult it can be as an opponent upon recently visiting Bayern in the midst of a furious Bundesliga title race and emerging with a draw. Adams is a big-enough part of the operation that even after achieving success while he recovered from injury, he immediately regained a pivotal position in midfield. His availability may be essential for advancement.

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9. Atletico Madrid

Champions League appearances: 15
Best finish: Finalist
2018-19 performance: Round of 16
Current league standing: La Liga, 4th
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, 10 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Liverpool
North American connections: Nike is the club’s kit supplier.

Atletico manager Diego Simeone has kept the team highly competitive in La Liga and has them once again in the UCL group stages as one of the most fearsome defensive squads in Europe, even after the departure of such essential players as defender Diego Godin and attacking star Antoine Griezmann. If one adds together the group games and La Liga games Atletico has played, the team has allowed 20 goals in 29 games. The problem has been a near-total absence of scoring, but two shutouts and one goal could get them through.

8. Tottenham

Champions League appearances: 6
Best finish: Finalist
2018-19 performance: Finalist
Current league standing: Premier League, 6th
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, 10 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: RB Leipzig
North American connections: USMNT center back Cameron Carter-Vickers is a Tottenham player, currently on loan to Luton Town.

The rapid decline of Tottenham after the club reached the 2018-19 Champions League final is one of the great recent mysteries of world soccer, but it’s not particularly surprising that the arrival of Jose Mourinho would have an immediate positive impact. He usually doesn’t start irritating players and others around a club until he has been in place for a short while, so now is the time to take advantage of his genius. Spurs are 7-4-2 in league play under Mourinho, including a recent 2-0 win over Manchester City. Spurs will be limited because of forward Harry Kane’s season-ending injury. But if he’s able to get back in time, they could be a sneaky title threat. That’s how good Mourinho is, at his best.

7. Bayern Munich

Champions League appearances: 36
Best finish: Champions (1974, 1975, 1976, 2001, 2013)
2018-19 performance: Round of 16
Current league standing: Bundesliga, 2nd
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, 18 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Chelsea
North American connections: Canada national team star Alphonso Davies plays left back, though he suffered an ankle injury in training recently.

It’s tough to know what to expect from Bayern — second in Bundesliga, just behind RB Leipzig — which dominated its UCL group at a time when Tottenham could barely find the dressing room. Somehow, Bayern cannot find the same gear in league play despite a lineup loaded with veteran stars (Thomas Muller, Robert Lewandowski, Jerome Boateng, Philippe Coutinho) and dazzling young talents (Joshua Kimmich, Serge Gnabry and Benjamin Pavard). We might get a clue from how the team handles Chelsea, which should not be an overwhelming challenge for a team set on winning this.

6. Juventus

Champions League appearances: 34
Best finish: Champion (1996, 1985)
2018-19 performance: Quarterfinals
Current league standing: Serie A, 2nd
2019-20 group stage: 1st, 16 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Lyon
North American connections: Forward Gonzalo Higuain’s brother, Federico, recently retired from Major League Soccer after eight seasons with Columbus Crew SC.

Signing world superstar Cristiano Ronaldo last season was designed to elevate Juventus above its boring run of Serie A titles toward Champions League success. That did not happen, with Ajax’ young core of future stars allowing a goal in each quarterfinal leg to Ronaldo — but holding the rest of the Juventus attack to zip. Juventus is not scoring as comfortably now, and could lose out here and in the league for the first time since 2011.

5. Paris Saint-Germain

Champions League appearances: 13
Best finish: Semifinals
2018-19 performance: Round of 16
Current league standing: Ligue 1, 1st
2019-20 group stage: 1st, 16 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Borussia Dortmund
North American connections: Nike’s Jordan Brand is PSG’s kit and gear supplier.

This is one of those “believe-it-when-it-happens” deals. PSG in particular has not been able to get past the hurdles concentrated in the Champions League knockout stages, and it has mostly been true of Ligue 1 teams generally. The only winner was Marseille in 1993. PSG has reached the knockout stages in eight consecutive seasons, but it has never advanced past the quarterfinals, even after the record-breaking purchase of Neymar and the addition of young superstar Kylian Mbappe. Paris honestly seems positioned to excel this time, although Neymar is bothered by another injury.

4. Manchester City

Champions League appearances: 10
Best finish: Semifinals
2018-19 performance: Quarterfinals
Current league standing: Premier League, 2nd
2019-20 group stage: 1st, 14 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Real Madrid
North American connections: U.S. goalkeeper Zach Steffen is a City player, currently on loan at Fortuna Dusseldorf

With any other draw, Manchester City might have stood atop this list. Although it has dominated England for much of the past decade, City has been unable to conjure the Champions League success it covets. Making a charge at another EPL title will be difficult. Now, because of the draw, this figures to be almost as great a challenge. Maybe this is the moment this team has prepared for nearly 12 months — or maybe the departure of legendary defender Vincent Kompany and the apparent issues with City’s back line are unconquerable.

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3. Real Madrid

Champions League appearances: 50
Best finish: Champions (2018, 2017, 2016, 2014, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1966, 1960, 1959, 1958, 1957, 1956)
2018-19 performance: Round of 16
Current league standing: La Liga, 1st
2019-20 group stage: 2nd, 11 out of 16
Round of 16 opponent: Manchester City
North American connections: U.S. U-20 forward Konrad De La Fuente began his soccer career at age 8 in Madrid’s academy.

With any other Round of 16 opponent, Madrid might have ranked at the top of this list. This is not the same team that steamrolled through the competition for three consecutive seasons, but it has the same coach and many of the same players. Although the team has had problems at times generating offense in La Liga play — including a three-game December stretch of draws in which the only goal was Karim Benzema’s injury-time strike to secure a point against Valencia — the defense has permitted only 14 goals in 23 league matches.

2. FC Barcelona

Champions League appearances: 30
Best finish: Champions (2015, 2011, 2009, 2006, 1992)
2018-19 performance: Semifinals
Current league standing: La Liga, 2nd
2019-20 group stage: 1st, 14 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Napoli
North American connections: U.S. U-20 winger Konrad De La Fuente plays for Barcelona’s B squad.

Can any team want this competition more fiercely after what occurred last May in the semifinals? Barcelona took a 3-0 lead over Liverpool on the road for the second leg, then gave up three second-half goals — including one on a quickly taken corner kick that caught the Barca defense unaware — and was eliminated. The offense remains one of the most prolific in Europe, but one wonders if the defense can slow down UCL-level opposition.

1. Liverpool

Champions League appearances: 24
Best finish: Champions (1977, 1978, 1981, 1984, 2005, 2019)
2018-19 performance: Champions
Current league standing: Premier League, 1st
2019-20 group stage: 1st, 13 points out of 18
Round of 16 opponent: Atletico Madrid
North American connections: Boston-based Fenway Sports Group controls the club.

Liverpool did not perform particularly well in the group stage, in part because then-Napoli manager Carlo Ancelotti consistently has excelled at matching with this LFC squad, but also because it was obviously the club’s primary focus remained on winning its first-ever Premier League title. The question now is whether the Reds’ extraordinary advantage in the league — 22 points with 13 games remaining — provides the luxury of investing more completely in trying to win a second consecutive Champions League title.

Mike DeCourcy

Mike DeCourcy Photo

Mike DeCourcy has been the college basketball columnist at The Sporting News since 1995. Starting with newspapers in Pittsburgh, Memphis and Cincinnati, he has written about the game for 35 years and covered 32 Final Fours. He is a member of the United States Basketball Writers Hall of Fame and is a studio analyst at the Big Ten Network and NCAA Tournament Bracket analyst for Fox Sports. He also writes frequently for TSN about soccer and the NFL. Mike was born in Pittsburgh, raised there during the City of Champions decade and graduated from Point Park University.