Pep Guardiola says he will be ready with "stupid tactics" as Man City gets set to face Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal matchup.
While Guardiola was at least half joking, attempting to hit out at criticism of his "overthinking" before big games in the recent past, bettors are best to beware of any Man City shenanigans as the two teams match up at the Etihad.
What's not a joke, however, is the pressure on Guardiola to perform in the Champions League this season. City has been one of the best sides in Europe the past three to five years, but has zero Champions League titles to show for it. In addition, Guardiola himself hasn't won the competition since his days with Barcelona, unable to secure the crown with City or even Bayern before.
Up against the Citizens is Atletico Madrid, which sits third in the La Liga table, well behind runaway leaders Real Madrid but on a great run of league form. Atletico has produced some brutal Champions League contests from a purely aesthetic standpoint, including both legs in the last round against Manchester United, but Diego Simeone won't care how the match looks as long as he can engineer an upset result.
Much has been made about the managerial matchup, one that was enjoyed briefly in La Liga before Guardiola departed Barcelona. Now though, Simeone has stoked the fires as the underdog in the matchup.
🎙Diego Simeone on Atlético Madrid vs Pep Guardiola’s Man City;
— #ChampionsLeague (@alimo_philip) April 5, 2022
🗣-“I never had the chance to have Xavi,Busquets,Pique,Iniesta,Lionel Messi…beyond Guardiola's great talent,he was lucky to always be accompanied by extraordinary players.”
🔥#UCL#MCIATM|#MCIATL|#AtleticoMadrid pic.twitter.com/8Xlxyp8HdU
MORE: Guardiola jokes about "overthinking" in big games
Manchester City vs. Atletico Madrid betting odds
Odds via DraftKings (USA) & Sports Interaction (Canada)
| DraftKings | Sports Interaction | |
|---|---|---|
| Man City Win | -290 | -318 |
| Draw | +425 | +416 |
| Atletico Madrid Win | +850 | +800 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -125 / +105 | -123 / -103 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | +115 / -150 | +110 / -172 |
| Man City -1.5 | +100 | -104 |
| Atletico Madrid -1.5 | -115 | -122 |
Manchester City vs. Atletico Madrid prediction
Man City is the overwhelming favorite, but this game could be a lot closer than suggested by the odds.
The tournament favorites, Man City has been ousted at this stage in three of the last four years, finally breaking through last season to reach the final before losing to Chelsea.
City has shown cracks in domestic play of late as well, drawing with Crystal Palace on March 14, a result which came a few matches after a loss to Spurs in mid-February. Still, the side has conceded just one goal over the past four Premier League matches since that Spurs loss, even with the absence of injured star center back Ruben Dias. City also blanked Sporting CP over its two Round of 16 matches.
Atletico is in great form as well, winning five La Liga matches in a row, including three on the road. That stretch includes a 3-1 win over fifth-placed Real Betis plus clean sheets against mid-table sides Celta Vigo and Rayo Vallecano.
Both teams have missing pieces, as City will be without the suspended Kyle Walker to add to their defensive woes, while Atleti is missing the injured Hector Herrera and the suspended Yannick Carrasco. Expect City to win this match in a tough battle.
Moneyline pick: Man City
Scoreline prediction: Man City 2-0 Atletico Madrid
MORE: Premier League table and Champions League races
Manchester City vs. Atletico Madrid best bets & expert picks
While both sides are in good goalscoring form — City has bagged 15 goals in its last seven Premier League games, while Atletico has struck 15 from its last five alongside its winning streak — the numbers tell a far different tale.
While Man City is finishing off great chances with ease, Atletico Madrid's goals have come from lesser chances that suggest an eventual dip in form. Against a tournament favorite, that dip could come now.
While City's seven-match stretch has seen 15 goals scored on an expected goals (xG) number of 17.08, suggesting the team could even be doing slightly better, Atleti's winning streak saw 15 goals scored on 9.08 xG. Extrapolated to the whole season, Atletico Madrid has scored 46 goals on an xG of 36.55, a massive 9.45 differential compared to the quality of chances actually being generated. While that will give City reason to worry about Atletico Madrid's fantastic finishing abilities, it also suggests that against a better side, the goals could dry up.
Atletico Madrid playmaker Angel Correa's whopping xG differential of +4.51 is third in La Liga behind only Juanmi of Real Betis (+7.22!) and Enes Unal of Getafe (+4.94). With chance creator Carracso sidelined, Man City can focus on locking down Correa, and thus locking down much of Atleti's attack. Joao Felix is starting to finally enjoy life in the Spanish capital, but as the team's second-leading chance creator (4.14 expected assists) behind Carrasco, he might find the service dried up if he's left to perform double duty.
Pick: Man City to win to zero (-120)
João Félix 🥵@joaofelix70 | @atletienglish | #UCL pic.twitter.com/r5IQGAnpZs
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 4, 2022
Prop bet: Corner kicks
Picking a goalscorer for Man City is like picking a name out of a hat, with six players (De Bruyne, Sterling, Mahrez, Silva, Foden, Gundogan) on at least five goals just in league play alone. We stay away from goalscorers with this team.
Instead, corners are the play here. While Man City averages 7 corners a game this season across all competitions, the Champions League is a different story. Even in a 5-0 blowout of Sporting CP, the team managed six corners, while it picked up seven in the home leg, a 0-0 draw. Break those down further, and the team had just two in the first half.
Couple that with Atletico Madrid's defensive style — Atleti only conceded eight corners against Man United across both Champions League Round of 16 legs despite conceding much of possession — and it's hard to see Man City getting five or more corners in a half in this match. City can turn it up in the second half if the attacking output hasn't been up to snuff, but in the first half, this feels like a lock.
Pick: Man City under 4.5 1st Half corners (-120)
