A match billed as a Premier League title decider will unfold on Wednesday as Manchester City host Arsenal in a midweek Premier League heavyweight bout.
While there are still matches left to be played before the end of the 2022/23 season is reached, the winner of this match, quite simply, will control their own title destiny.
Manchester City sit five points behind the Gunners, but they have two games in hand, meaning they need just a draw from this head-to-head to place one hand on the trophy. Arsenal, meanwhile, have slipped to three straight league draws, needing a win on the road at the Etihad to regain the semblance of an edge in the race.
With just five games left for Arsenal and seven for Man City, momentum is such a key factor at this stage of the season. So while there's plenty of football left to be played after this match, the result could turn into the deciding factor.
The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 52.1% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 23 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 47 of 96 match outcomes via his three-way moneyline leans to date.
MORE: Man City vs Arsenal lineups, live score, highlights, and result from Premier League title decider
How big is Wednesday's Premier League game between Manchester City and Arsenal?
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) April 24, 2023
Well, @NilsMackay crunched the numbers via the Opta supercomputer...
Man City win: 🔵
Draw: 🔵
Arsenal win: 🔴#MCIARS pic.twitter.com/iqUTNacwd7
Man City vs Arsenal odds
Manchester City have been betting darlings all season long, even as Arsenal topped the table for much of the campaign. Given the current form of both clubs, there's no surprise that the hosts are massive favourites in this match.
Arsenal have slumped to three straight draws, allowing Man City right back into the race. In fact, City are such favourites that the handicap (spread) has shifted up towards 1.5 goals.
There's also an expectation of goals in this match, as you'd expect with two clubs featuring title-worthy attacking firepower.
| Man City win | Draw | Arsenal win | Both teams to score Y / N | Over / Under 2.5 goals | MCI -1.5 | ARS +1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (USA) | -185 | +340 | +450 | -150 / +105 | -185 / +130 | +135 | -190 |
| Sports Interaction (Canada) | -200 | +347 | +431 | -164 / +105 | -180 / +135 | +138 | -179 |
| SkyBet (UK) | 8/15 | 7/2 | 9/2 | 8/13, 6/5 | 8/15, 11/8 | — | — |
| Neds (Australia) | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.67 / 2.15 | 1.60 / 2.35 | — | — |
| Dafabet (India) | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.50 | 1.67 / 2.12 | 1.60 / 2.34 | 2.48 | 1.54 |
Man City vs Arsenal match facts
- Date: Wednesday, April 26
- Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Thu, Apr. 27)
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Official: Michael Oliver
- Last meeting: Arsenal 1-3 Man City (Feb. 15, 2023 | Premier League)
Man City vs Arsenal team news
The only Man City player sidelined for this match is defender Nathan Ake who went down with a hamstring problem in the second half of the win over Bayern Munich in Champions League action. Otherwise, Pep Guardiola has a completely clean bill of health, a huge advantage in the title race.
The injury situation for Arsenal is a bit more worrying, as there are questions whether William Saliba will be back at all this season. The Gunners' back line has been leaky with Rob Holding in his place, and concerns over the defence's viability in the Premier League title charge have begun to creep in. There's also uncertainty over the status of in-form midfielder Granit Xhaka, which would be a huge loss for Arsenal. Takehiro Tomiyasu is recovering from a knee injury, as is Mohamed Elneny.
MORE: Updated Premier League table with title, Champions League, and relegation race breakdowns
Man City vs Arsenal key stats
- Arsenal have lost seven straight to Manchester City across all competitions, and 14 of the last 15, with just a 2-0 FA Cup win in July of 2020 the only positive result in that stretch which dates back to 2017.
- The Gunners haven't won vs Man City in Premier League play since December of 2015, with two draws and 12 defeats in that 14-match run, including 11 straight losses.
- With William Saliba in Premier League play, Arsenal have conceded 0.9 goals per match this season (25 goals in 27 matches), but with the French defender sidelined, they have conceded 1.8 goals per match (9 goals in 5 games).
Man City vs Arsenal prediction
- Moneyline lean: Man City (-185)
- Handicap lean (spread): Man City -1.5 (+135)
- Score prediction: Man City 3-1 Arsenal
Mikel Arteta's title challenge is on life support, and to salvage the situation, he has to beat not only the best team in the league, but the team he's been unable to beat in his managerial tenure.
Arteta's former master Pep Guardiola has confounded his pupil since the former left the Man City nest to lead the Gunners, with seven Premier League meetings all ending in a Man City win.
It's hard to see this match going any other way. Everything points towards a Man City win — injuries, home field, recent form, and historical matchups — and there's no reason to go against the universe.
Man City vs Arsenal best bet
- Pick: 1H over 1.5 goals
- Odds: +125 (BetMGM)
Throughout this three-match slump, Arsenal have both coughed up leads and given up early leads. Yet one thing is consistent: They've given up first-half goals. Between two allowed to Southampton, one against West Ham, and one against Liverpool, the Gunners have struggled to keep teams off the scoresheet before the break.
Man City, meanwhile, have been ruthless before halftime. They went 3-0 up before the break against Leicester City last time out, and have nine first-half goals across their six-match winning streak.
Finally, in the last seven Premier League games against Arsenal, Man City have scored 10 first-half goals, with at least one in six of those seven contests.
While you can get Man City over 1.5 goals in the first half at +260, leaving it open-ended is valuable as these two will surely go at each other from the get-go.
Man City vs Arsenal prop bet
- Pick: Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist
- Odds: -150 (FanDuel)
Nobody in the Premier League has been tortured by Kevin De Bruyne's brilliance more than Arsenal — he's scored six goals against the Gunners, more than any other opponent he's faced. He's also chipped in three assists, giving him a goal contribution in seven of his 13 Premier League games against Arsenal.
With Man City so heavily favoured in this match, it's tough to get good odds on City players to score, but even at these odds, picking their best big-game player to come up big here is sensible.
Man City vs Arsenal live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | — | Peacock |
| Canada | — | Fubo Canada |
| UK | BT Sport 1 | BT Sport |
| Australia | — | Optus Sport |
| New Zealand | Sky Sport Premier League | Sky Sport NOW |
| India | Star Sports Select 1 | Hotstar VIP, JioTV |
| Hong Kong | Now Premier League (Ch. 620-621) | Now E, Now Player |
| Malaysia | Astro SuperSport 3 | Astro Go, sooka |
| Singapore | — | StarHub TV+ |
