Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp do battle once again as Manchester City travel to Anfield to take on Liverpool, but the stakes will feel different than in recent years.
While Man City are battling for the top spot in the Premier League table, Liverpool are floundering to start the season, struggling with a lethal combination of injuries and poor form. These two legendary managers have taken their lumps from the other in the past, but the expectations for this Premier League meeting have a one-sided feel.
Erling Haaland is in staggering goalscoring form, with an astonishing 15 goals through the first nine Premier League games of the season. He is on pace not only to shatter Mohamed Salah's Premier League single-season goalscoring record of 32, but on this current pace he would squeak past the all-time single-season English top flight goalscoring record that has stood since the 1920's.
The question of whether Liverpool can achieve an upset at Anfield will start with whether Jurgen Klopp can devise a tactical approach that keeps Haaland off the scoresheet, otherwise Liverpool will find themselves in a shootout they may not have the firepower to withstand.
MORE: Pep Guardiola vs. Jurgen Klopp head-to-head throughout their glittering managerial careers
Liverpool vs. Man City betting odds
The Reds are understandable underdogs, even on home soil.
Man City are second in the league, just a point behind leaders Arsenal. Liverpool, meanwhile, sit 11th in the league table, without a win in their last three league games. They were beaten by leaders Arsenal last time out, downed by a 76th minute Bukayo Saka penalty. Prior to that, draws with Brighton (3-3) and Everton (0-0) were equally disappointing.
On the flip side, City have won every league game this season save for a pair of draws against Aston Villa (1-1) and Newcastle (3-3), with all seven of their league wins coming by multiple goals.
Given the scoring prowess of both sides and the defensive issues Liverpool face, the betting market has heavily skewed all goal-related odds, with both teams to score featuring a massive swing towards the "yes" selection.
| Caesars | Sports Interaction | SkyBet | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | +300 | 3.78 | 29/10 |
| Draw | +310 | 4.05 | 3/1 |
| Man City win | -126 | 1.76 | 4/5 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -200 / +160 | 1.43 / 2.44 | 2/5, 7/4 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | +120 / -150 | 2.10 / 1.68 | 11/10, 4/6 |
| Man City -0.5 | -140 | 1.79 | — |
| Liverpool +0.5 | +120 | 2.00 | — |
Liverpool vs. Man City recent history
- Liverpool vs. Man City all-time record: Liverpool 92 wins, Man City 48 wins, 51 draws
Jurgen Klopp has been a thorn in Pep Guardiola's side of late, with Man City unable to beat Liverpool in any of their last four meetings across all competitions.
However, prior to that recent run, the two sides traded haymakers every time they faced off. Man City achieved big league victories by 4-1 and 4-0 scorelines in 2020 and 2021, while Liverpool knocked Man City out of the 2017/18 Champions League in the quarterfinals.
Liverpool vs. Man City last 5 matches
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| July 30, 2022 | FA Community Shield | Liverpool 3-1 Man City |
| Apr. 16, 2022 | FA Cup Semifinals | Man City 2-3 Liverpool |
| Apr. 10, 2022 | Premier League | Man City 2-2 Liverpool |
| Oct. 3, 2021 | Premier League | Liverpool 2-2 Man City |
| Feb. 7, 2021 | Premier League | Liverpool 1-4 Man City |
Liverpool vs. Man City prediction
Liverpool may have the advantage in this head-to-head matchup on recent results between the two sides, but Man City are in far better form.
While Pep Guardiola's side are battling with Arsenal for the Premier League lead, Jurgen Klopp is simply looking for answers. The Reds have been battling defensive frailties all season long, with injuries playing their part as well.
An already struggling side will be missing Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Diaz, Naby Keita, Joel Matip, Curtis Jones, Arthur, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.
Add in the defensive struggles of Virgil van Dijk and the full-backs, and this Liverpool team is primed for a thrashing at the hands of the most ruthless team in the league.
- Moneyline lean: Man City
- Against the spread lean (handicap): Man City -0.5
- Scoreline prediction: Liverpool 0-3 Man City
Liverpool vs. Man City best bets & expert analysis
Liverpool vs. Man City best bet
- Pick: Asian Handicap, Man City -1 (2.32 on Sports Interaction)
Even if the teams had their full complement of players, I would still give Man City the edge to win this match given the way each club's season is unfolding.
However, with the injuries to Liverpool, Man City will smell blood in the water. Liverpool will miss Diaz up front in a big way, as he has been an outlet for the Reds to help open things up for Mohamed Salah. Conversely, without Diaz in the lineup, Man City should be able to key on Salah and help keep him under wraps, with few creative outlets elsewhere in the Liverpool attack.
Remove Alexander-Arnold's creative presence as well, and this Liverpool attack is suddenly a one-man show. Darwin Nunez is slowly figuring out his way in the Liverpool attack, but isn't exactly on top form in front of net either.
Man City should have no trouble winning this game by multiple goals.
Liverpool vs. Man City prop: Erling Haaland goal
- Prop: Erling Haaland to score (-154 on Sports Interaction)
Normally, taking a player to score a goal with absurdly low odds is unadvisable, but Erling Haaland is breaking all the rules.
The best part about Haaland is that there's very little "coming back to Earth" expected for him after such an incredible start to the campaign. Haaland has collected anywhere from 8.34 to 10.10 xG this season (depending on what model you subscribe to), and while that's clearly below his 15-goal mark so far, it's also the best in the Premier League by an absolute mile.
According to Opta's xG model, Haaland has collected 8.34 xG this season, which is 2.15 higher than second-place Harry Kane. According to UnderStat's more attacking-friendly model, the gap is even higher — Haaland has bagged 10.1 xG this season, 3.38 above anyone else. So while yes, Haaland is finishing at a spectacular rate (his +1.24 differential between xG and xGOT, via Opta, means his finishing is exceptional), he's also feasting on a massive amount of good chances created by his Man City teammates.
Should we expect Haaland to finish with 63 goals this season, for which he's currently on pace? Of course not. Do we think, barring injury, that he'll come crashing back down to Earth? The numbers appear to suggest he'll continue scoring — even at the pace his current xG projects, Haaland will still finish with somewhere between 42 and 48 goals, shattering the single-season Premier League record. Ride the Haaland Comet while it's soaring through space, even if the odds are tougher to swallow.
Tip: You can also get Erling Haaland to score the first or last goal at +125 at Caesars. While we don't normally recommend picking first goalscorers due to randomness, Haaland scores so many goals that this wouldn't be a bad way to increase the odds. Haaland has scored the first or last goal in five out of eight Premier League games he's played in this season.
Liverpool vs. Man City prop: First half
- Prop kicker: Man City highest scoring half — 1st half (+210)
Liverpool have been notorious for conceding early in games this season. In fact, shockingly, Liverpool have conceded the first goal in 11 of their 14 games this season across all competitions. Even in the 7-1 thrashing of Rangers midweek, they conceded first before turning the game on its head.
Conversely, Man City have been better in the first half of games this season, overwhelming opponents through the first 45 minutes before settling down with a lead. According to Opta, Man City have collected 11.15 xG in the first half of matches, nearly two full goals better than anyone else. In the second half, they sit at "just" 9.61 xG. It's common to see teams have a higher xG in the second half of games, as the second half of matches are typically the higher-scoring half. For Man City to have a lower xG in the second-half speaks to their style of play.
Pep Guardiola will go for the jugular early in this game, so expect Man City to pour on the pressure in the opening 45 minutes of play. You're welcome to take the safer play of Man City to win the 1st half at -175, but given the odds disparity, I prefer the pick of the first half as Man City's higher-scoring half with much better odds.
