With only two qualifying matches left to play, mighty Mexico still hasn't clinched a spot at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar and El Tri fans are growing restless with coach Gerardo 'Tata' Martino the target of their frustrations as the team heads into Honduras for the penultimate qualifying contest.
Mexico can clinch a direct berth on Sunday with a win in Honduras, coupled with a Costa Rica loss or draw. And even a draw in San Pedro Sula, paired with a Costa Rica loss and anything but a win for Panama, would get the job done. But fans have wanted more: the expectation is that Mexico should flex its muscles against regional competition, win convincingly, and stroll into every World Cup.
That hasn't happened in this qualifying cycle with Mexico sitting in third place and Costa Rica charging hard, only three points behind. El Tri's final match on Wednesday will see it host El Salvador, while Costa Rica are at home to the USA.
Anything but a win in Honduras will have Mexico sweating out qualification on the final matchday. But playing in El Tri's favor is the fact that fans won't be permitted at the Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula after sanctions handed down by FIFA for fan behavior in a previous home match, which saw altercations in the stands spill out onto the field.
With our without fans, San Pedro Sula hasn't been the house of horrors for visiting teams it usually is during qualifying. Honduras only have a draw and five losses in the previous six home matches. Recently installed coach Hernan Dario 'Bolillo' Gomez is looking to rebuild La Bicolor, beginning with its leaky back line. The work is seemingly paying off as seen in the 1-1 draw at qualifying contenders Panama on Thursday.
His counterpart, Martino, didn't travel to Honduras due to a medical issue involving a detached retina, but he will still pick the lineup with his assistant Jorge Theiler standing in on the sidelines. Martino will be watching from home hoping one of the following scenarios comes to pass to relieve the pressure.
MORE: CONCACAF qualifying schedule, standings & results
How Mexico can qualify to World Cup
Mexico can clinch an eighth straight berth to the FIFA men's World Cup with:
- Mexico win vs. Honduras + Costa Rica loss or draw
- Mexico draw vs. Honduras + Costa Rica loss + Panama fail to win
Costa Rica will conclude its match on Sunday before Mexico kicks off in Honduras, so the pressure could truly be on El Tri in San Pedro Sula.
A Mexico loss to Honduras or a win by Costa Rica would push the qualification verdict to the final day on Wednesday, March 30. Those scenarios could get further complicated if Panama also enter the picture by pulling off a shock win against the USA on Sunday.
| Team | PTS | GP | W | L | D | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Canada | 25 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 6 | +13 |
| 2. USA | 22 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 7 | +9 |
| 3. Mexico | 22 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 8 | +6 |
| 4. Costa Rica | 19 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 | +2 |
| 5. Panama | 18 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 |
| 6. El Salvador (E) | 10 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 |
| 7. Jamaica (E) | 8 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 |
| 8. Honduras (E) | 4 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 23 | -17 |
How to watch Honduras vs. Mexico
- Date: Sunday, March 27
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- USA TV channel: Telemundo
- USA streaming: fuboTV, Paramount+
In the USA the match will be televised on Telemundo with the stream available on fuboTV, which is available on a free trial.
Paramount+ will also stream the match for subscribers in the USA.
Honduras vs. Mexico projected lineups
According to Honduran outlets, forward Romell Quioto sat out training on Saturday and stayed back at the team hotel. He led the line in the 1-1 draw against Panama, but will likely miss the match. The nation's other top forwards — Cadiz's Anthony 'Choco' Lozano and Bordeaux's Alberth Elis — stayed back with their club teams battling relegation in their respective leagues.
Quioto's replacement at forward, Angel Tejeda, is expected to be one of two changes to Thursday's lineup with speculation suggesting Alfredo Mejia will also come in for Juan Angel Delgado.
Honduras projected starting lineup (4-5-1, left to right): 22-Luis Lopez (GK) — 3-Wesly Decas, 15-Denil Maldonado, 4-Marcelo Pereira, 21-Marcelo Santos — 11-Kevin Lopez, 20-Alfredo Mejia, 5-Kervin Arriaga, 6-Bryan Acosta, 19-Cristian Sacaza — 9-Angel Tejeda
Honduras subs (12): Players to be selected from the following — Roberto Lopez (GK), Edrick Menjivar (GK), Allans Vargas, Devron Garcia, Carlos Argueta, Franklin Flores, Alexander Lopez, Jonathan Nunez, Edwin Rodriguez, Juan Angel Delgado, Joseph Rosales, Junior Lacayo, Marco Aceituno, Edwin Solano
Tata Martino tends to switch out four to six starters from match to match in these three-game qualifying windows to keep the team fresh. Among the potential candidates to step in vs. Honduras: Jesus Gallardo at left back, Nestor Araujo or Hector Moreno at center back, Luis Romo or Erick Aguirre in central midfield, Uriel Antuna or Roberto Alvarado at winger, Henry Martin at center forward for Raul Jimenez.
Every player is available for selection except for Alexis Vega who is suspended after picking up a yellow card against the USA. Center back Nestor Araujo came into camp carrying a knock, but he's expected to be ready after sitting out the match against the Americans.
Mexico projected starting lineup (4-3-3, left to right): Memo Ochoa (GK) — Jesus Gallardo, Hector Moreno, Nestor Araujo, Jorge Sanchez — Luis Romo, Edson Alvarez, Erick Gutierrez — Chucky Lozano, Raul Jimenez, Uriel Antuna
Mexico subs (12): Players to be selected from the following — Carlos Acevedo (GK), Rodolfo Cota (GK), Alfredo Talavera (GK), Gerardo Arteaga, Jesus Angulo, Israel Reyes, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez, Julian Araujo, Erick Aguirre, Charly Rodriguez, Diego Lainez, Hector Herrera, Roberto 'Piojo' Alvarado, Henry Martin, Santi Gimenez
MORE: Scenarios for Mexico to clinch a World Cup spot
Honduras vs. Mexico betting pick & prediction
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
It remains to be seen what condition the field will be in after both teams were not allowed to practice on it for the usual walkthrough the day before the match. Wet weather in the area led to the decision to preserve the field, but there's still a 50 percent chance of rain on Sunday.
The field is already typically slow and heavy in San Pedro Sula, and if it's further impacted by weather, we could be looking at a sloppy game in which a single goal could decide it.
Honduras usually gets up to face Mexico and will try to muck up the game and play physical even without a home crowd to support it. El Tri is accustomed to slogging through those types of matches, and their superior quality should win out in the end.
Pick: Mexico win and Under 3.5 (-130)
Prediction: Honduras 1, Mexico 2
- Moneyline: Honduras +700 / Draw +370 / Mexico -280
- Spread: Honduras +1.5 (-150) / Mexico -1.5 (+110)
- O/U 2.5 total goals: Over -105 / Under -120
- Both teams to score: Yes +120 / No -160
