The 2022 UEFA Women's Euros is down to the final two teams, and fans are presented with a fantastic matchup on Sunday as England and Germany meet for the title.
One team will hoist the trophy while the other settles for a cruel runner-up medal after the match at Wembley.
Both teams have dominated the opposition throughout the competition, both up front and along the back. Both teams have won all five tournament matches, each conceding just a single goal during that run. On the other end, England have bagged 20 goals while Germany have scored 13.
The two sides also boast the tournament's joint top scorers, as Beth Mead of England and Alexandra Popp of Germany each have six goals through the event.
MORE: England vs. Germany live score, updates, highlights & lineups from UEFA Women's EURO 2022 final
England vs. Germany betting odds
England are favorites on home soil, and have looked the part as they dominated the group stage and continued to show their quality through the quarterfinals and semifinals. Germany are right on their heels, though, having similarly powered through the competition en route to Wembley.
While both teams have scored goals in bunches, both teams are extremely stout at the back as well, making it tough on the betting market to settle on a final scoreline projection. Both choices on whether both teams will score have minus odds attached to them, indicating the lack of an obvious lean. The under is a slight favorite as well, with goals likely to be at a premium in the tournament finale.
| USA (DraftKings) | Canada (Sports Interaction) | UK (SkyBet) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| England Win | +140 | +129 | 7/5 |
| Draw | +225 | +210 | 9/4 |
| Germany Win | +205 | +195 | 2/1 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -110 / -115 | -116 / -135 | 4/5, 10/11 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | +125 / -150 | +119 / -165 | 11/10, 4/6 |
| England +0 | -135 | -149 | — |
| Germany +0 | +100 | +112 | — |
How many times are we all watching this tonight? 🤯pic.twitter.com/Z5UHyBbb8Z
— Lionesses (@Lionesses) July 26, 2022
England vs. Germany prediction
It's hard to look at this match and see anything other than a win by hosts England at what should be a spectacular event at Wembley.
The Lionesses have shown it all in this tournament. They blitzed the group stage, beating Austria, Norway, and Northern Ireland by a combined 14-0. They showed grit and determination in a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over Spain, proving they can win when not at their best. They then rediscovered their best and boatraced Sweden, the No. 2-ranked team in the world, 4-0 in the semifinals.
The wins against Norway and Sweden are true statements of intent: two extremely high-quality opponents with decorated players were put to the sword in dominant fashion. Beth Mead is in spectacular form, with a hat-trick against Norway plus a goal and assist in the win over Sweden.
Germany just won't be able to match that, even if the game should be close. While the Germans have been solid defensively this tournament, not conceding a single goal until the semifinals, that doesn't tell the full story. They were second-best for large swaths of the semifinal win over France, especially down the stretch in the final minutes of the game, only surviving thanks to the opponent's extremely poor finishing.
Widen the lens further, and you'll see Germany managed a clean sheet against Spain in the group stage despite conceding 1.39 xG (expected goals), plus shutout wins against Finland and Denmark where the opponent also missed a few fairly good opportunities.
Germany's 31-year-old striker Alexandra Popp, finally healthy from a run of cruel injuries, continues to carry the German attack, but even if England concede to the tournament's leading scorer, they should have more than enough firepower to make up for the momentary lapse.
- Moneyline lean: England (+133)
- Against-the-spread lean: England +0 (-137)
- Scoreline prediction: England 2-0 Germany
More 2022 UEFA Women's Euro coverage: Venues | Officials | Most titles | Did Russia play?
England vs. Germany best bets & expert analysis
England vs. Germany best bet
While England have been dominant all tournament long, they've been especially ruthless in the second half as the clock winds down. From the 60th minute on, this team has been deadly, outscoring opponents 10-0 down the stretch.
Facing adversity against Spain, England rocketed to the finish line with incredible pressure, producing nine of their 10 shots on target after the 60th minute mark. Against Germany, in an Arnold Clark Cup match back in February, England picked up a 3-1 win on goals in the 84th and 94th minutes.
This is not a knock on the team that plays the opening 45 minutes — the Lionesses showed against 11th-ranked Norway that a hot start isn't out of the question either, bagging a whopping six goals before the break. But no matter the situation at halftime, expect head coach Sarina Wiegman to have this team locked and loaded out of the locker room, ready to leave no doubt about the final result.
- Pick: England to win the 2nd half (+165 on DraftKings)
England vs. Germany prop: England to win via clean sheet
If you want to back England but would like to give the odds a little more juice, you can add a shutout win for England to your card.
Yes, Alexandra Popp is in great form for Germany, tied for the tournament lead with six goals. Yet against tougher opponents this tournament, the Germans have not been all that convincing up front. They scored their two group stage goals against Spain from just 0.73 xG, and against France got another pair off 1.2 xG.
The goalscoring issues go back to earlier this year. They were held goalless by Canada in the Arnold Clark Cup back in February, and were shut out through the first 70 minutes by 36th-ranked Serbia in an April World Cup qualifying defeat. To be fair to Germany, Popp did not play in either of those games, but she has faced England five times in her international career, and scored just once, back in a 2019 friendly.
- Prop kicker: England to win to zero (+170 on Sports Interaction)
