TORONTO — For Canada, planning on who not to play against is just as important as preparing for the team's next opponent.
The men's national soccer team faces Cuba in Toronto on Saturday for Matchday 1 of the CONCACAF Nations League, a new competition that doubles as a qualifier for the 2021 Gold Cup. For the Canadians, the Nations League also essentially kicks off World Cup qualification for Qatar 2022, with a new FIFA rankings-based qualifying system that places huge importance on every match they play between now and June 2020.
Confused yet?
The most important thing to know is that the Canadians are currently ranked in eighth place in the region, and the top six teams in next summer's rankings will face off for three World Cup berths. The rest of CONCACAF's 35 member nations will scrap it out for a half-spot shared with another confederation.
In effect, Canada needs to pile on the rankings points over the next nine months or be on the outside looking in for the main six-team World Cup qualifying tourney — the so-called "Hex."
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It all starts with Saturday's match against the Cubans, the first of two games versus the Caribbean nation over the next week, to kick off the Nations League group stage. At No. 179 in the world, Cuba doesn't represent much in the way of potential rankings points for the Canadians, but Canada's other Group A opponent — the U.S., which visits Toronto's BMO Field Oct. 15 and hosts Canada in November — is a potential goldmine.
First things first, though.
"For us, we've got one eye on the here, which is the Cuba match[es], but also one eye on the future, which is a tough match [against the Americans] coming in only three weeks, four weeks' time," Canada head coach John Herdman said on Friday. "So, you know, there's been elements of trying to prepare the team for tougher tests, but also to make sure that we don't look beyond this one."
Herdman and his Canada coaching staff have been forced into becoming amateur mathematicians in order to figure out a way to get the team into the region's top six by next summer. As part of an official continental competition, Nations League matches carry extra weight in terms of rankings points and are of utmost importance, but Herdman also wants to test his players against higher-level competition after nearly two years of only facing local — and at times underwhelming — opposition.
"We've got two matches against the USA. If we draw both of those games, to stand any chance at the Hex we've got to make sure that the goal difference [against Cuba] was taken care of and we get out of Group A and into Nations League final four," Herdman explained. "But if you asked us would we rather be playing Colombia, Venezuela, or, you know, a tough match from a European team? Absolutely.
"But what CONCACAF have given us is two golden opportunities against the U.S. which, you know, they come along in a player's career maybe once every 10 years. So we've got those two matches to really look forward to. And in this Cuba series, we've got to take care of business."
Canada has an open international match date in October, just days prior to the home contest against the Americans. They will then face the U.S. on Nov. 15 (likely in Orlando, Fla.) before another open date four days later. Add in a possible January camp and a pair of available days in March and the potential for adding high-value international friendly matches becomes obvious.
Herdman says it's likely Canada will fill some of those days, but will strategically leave others open.
"The [October] window against the USA, that's a dangerous one," Herdman explained. "Do you want to play a friendly match on Friday and try and get five points, six points? If we play France, we'd pick up eight points, if we beat them — the world champions! If we beat the U.S., we pick up 18 points, 17 points, because that's what it's worth when you play a Nations League match against that type of opposition. So to try and play a friendly match on the Friday [prior to the Oct. 15 game] and risk some injuries to players and then try and turn around your core group to then play the U.S. [four days later], it's dangerous, because you've got almost triple the points [at stake].
"So for us, we'll let the U.S. play two games in that [October] window, and we'll spend our time in preparation and making sure the players are physically, mentally [and] emotionally ready for that match, which is a big game for us. And then when we get into the November window ... we get [the U.S.] on Friday, early in the window. And that leaves a good window for a friendly match on Tuesday. So [Canada Soccer], we're working hard to try and set up an opponent that can give us some ranking points that we can add to our FIFA totals."
As to what kind of opposition Herdman's considering for November and early next year? The coach doesn't feel bigger is necessarily better.
"If we're still in the fight for the Hex [next year], we've got to go out and play [friendly] games. But again, we've got to be smart," Herdman said. "The way we've analyzed it, you get ... eight points if you beat France or you can get five points for beating Bolivia. An extra one point if you go up against Colombia, or Peru, or Chile, so it's a game; you've got to be very calculated in there [as to] what games you're going to take and where you're going to play them. Because the end in mind for us is to qualify for this World Cup."